USDRUB trade ideas
USDRUB broke a huge triangle 🦐USDRUB broke a huge triangle and now lost a local price structure, according with Plancton's strategy we can set a nice short
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop
Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble.
Trouble at home
Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way.
Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy.
China - Catch 22
Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU.
What can Russia do?
Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036).
Rate cut implications
Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation.
Technical analysis
I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis.
Risks / opportunities
On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB.
As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
USDRUB Sooner or later we will see 80rWe are approaching the stated goals of $ 68 for $ 1, after which I expect to see a new stage in the depreciation of the ruble and the continuation of the crisis, which everyone would seem to have forgotten about)
Below we have an unclosed gap
The ruble appreciation was caused by growth, demand for risky assets, and most importantly, the restoration of oil demand.
Given the positive on the oil market, we can expect further short-term strengthening. Good levels for the purchase of the dollar in the medium and long term noted on the chart.
I buy in parts, the largest rollback is up to 68 rubles per dollar.
At this level, prices will buy more.
Sooner or later we will see 80r.
And if you can successfully invest in American stocks, in $$$.
With such a ruble exchange rate, you will be able to remove with a high degree of probability the double profit from the growth of shares + exchange rate (I do this)
Once again, I understand that the ruble is an unreliable currency to save its money.
Friends have suggestions, or you do not know where to invest, write to me in PM.
USDRUB Updated map - RUB follows stronger oilThe structure became complicated and we see how strong oil affects this pair.
It is possible that the upward cycle has been over already when it reached my first target. See related
Now it will build corrective structure downwards.
A powerful signal for the ruble is a "breakdown" of the support At the moment, for the USD/RUB pair, we can observe a breakdown of the support line at the level of 73.00 on the 4-hour chart.
This is a good opportunity to earn on short positions, as well as remember all those who promised you a ruble before the summer for 90 or even 100 (you can even list).
The stroke range of the prices (the target) can be set independently, each with its own strategy, but it is better to work on the system (we recommend Elder and Safina).
USDRUB The Most Important TrendlineT1 Trendline.
If price will cross this trendline,
we can expect another rally of RUB to 77.72
USD/RUB at the end of the triangle pattern 🦐The market after the sharp rise till 82.750 level retraced till the 0.5 Fib level of the upper move.
After testing the triangles lines is now getting to the end of it and due to the weaken time of the USD is pushing to the downside.
We draw 2 important structure in blue that will give us the confirmation of the trend and an opportunity to take a position at the resets of it.
If it will occur a break to the downside our target will be around 66.500, on the other hand if the market will gain momentum and break on the upper side at retest of the resistance zone we could easily target the recent highs.
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USDRUB scenarios - pennant or triangle breakoutEntry after breakdown of upper or lower border of triangle.
Stop order placed behind another border.
Take at 50% Fibonacci (if long) or at previous long trend (if short).
USDRUB scenarios - pennant or triangle breakoutEntry after breakdown of upper or lower border of triangle.
Stop order placed behind another border.
Take at 50% Fibonacci (if long) or at previous long trend (if short).
Waiting BuyAt a glance of the overall story we can see USD / RUB is in the process of accumulating and forming a price wedge in an earlier uptrend. and in the future 51% of prices will exit the wedge area in an upward direction. Currently we can wait to buy at the bottom of the wedge as I drew and taget reasonable, flexible, can close early when prices show signs of recovery and after the return we will continue to buy up according to the model price.
$USDRUB - Tighter triangle-Should break soon. Support @ 72.50 and resistance @ 74.60, Should see a 6% move
RUB Stability for Russian Rouble Trading opportunitie to 71.87.
Russian Rouble will be locked in
71.378-77.728 range this summer.
There are no fudamental factors
to support this currency, so anly
central bank can hold price below 77.72.
USDRUB - Long-term ProjectionThere is probability, that RUBUSD is just second inner wave of bigger the third wave.
USDRUB_tom pre-startI see price goes lower in short term with a bull trend thereafter.
Levels below 71.80 // 68.20 // 62.41
Levels above 85.62 // 93.69 // 106.72
