USOILUS Oil is another name for West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Crude Oil. WTI is the benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils because of its location in the Gulf coast and central US. The US oil is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
USOIL.F trade ideas
WTI set for breakdown amid supply, demand concernsAlthough oil prices were trading higher at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to foresee a big rally at this stage, without any supply-side shocks.
WTI's price action has been quite heavy as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. While it has held its own around the December 2023 levels of around $67.00 to $68.00 area, this could prove to be a temporary respite before we potentially see a bigger breakdown. Not only has oil broken the key $69.30 to $70.00 support range, which is now holding as resistance, sentiment towards oil is increasingly turning bearish amid growing signs of excess surplus from non-OPEC.
Indeed, the oil market is heading for a surplus next year, according to the IEA. The agency is forecasting an excess of over a million barrels per day, mainly due to faltering demand from China. Once the driver of global oil consumption, China has seen demand shrink for six consecutive months, largely as its economy pivots to electric vehicles and high-speed rail.
Growing supplies from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana keep the market well-supplied, says IEA. Demand growth this year and next will stay subdued due to slower economic growth and clean energy transitions.
OPEC+ plans to cautiously restart production, with a 180,000-barrel-per-day increase set for January, though they’ll reassess in December. With supply growth outpacing demand, the market is likely to stay comfortably stocked well into 2025.
Against this backdrop, crude oil looks set for a sharp drop after drifting lower in recent weeks.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI Bottomed! - 68 close / targets!11.14.24 WTI / USOIL / CL Plan
69.40 and 70.35 levels are targets for this next move off 68.00. Note that 70.35 level is backed by intraday (4H) 200 ema resistance.
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wtiCurrently, WTI, considering its interaction with daily and weekly support levels and having a long candle, can target 72 first, then 74, and finally 78.
OIL Completes Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternOIL Completes Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern
OIL recently completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The bottom of the pattern was reached yesterday at 66.9 during the release of the US CPI data, followed by an aggressive growth.
Today, OIL confirmed this new bullish pattern, indicating increased bullish momentum. If the bulls manage to hold the price above 68.8, we could see oil rising further, as shown on the chart. Target zones include 69.9, 71.4, and 72.0.
You may find more details in the chart!
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BUY USOIL | CL Another trade today on CL you can take with the same entry, TP and SL. Place your orders and wait for the market to come fill it!
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USOIL Will Grow! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 68.870.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 70.475 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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WTI, Inverted Head and Shoulder with Bullish DivergenceInverted Head and Shoulder Pattern
Bullish Divergence
Right Shoulder in Completion
Buy at Breakout
Buy with Buy Stop
Sl Below Right Shoulder
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL), DailyUSOIL consolidated within 67.00 - 69.00 while sustaining the trend.
The bearish EMAs indicate the potential downtrend extension.
If USOIL breaks above 69.00, coinciding with EMA21 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, the price could rise to 72.00.
Conversely, a break below 67.00 could prompt a decline toward the channel's lower bound and its support near 65.00.
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel.
The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal.
Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market.
In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines.
TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran.
The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
WTI Oil D1 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 67.44 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 65.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 72.17 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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WTI, Bearish Channel with Bearish Trend ContinuationBearish Channel
Currently Facing Horizontal Resistance
Breakout Of Resistance Expected
Sell Entry After Break and closing Below Resistance
Stoploss above resistance level
Target towards next resistance zone
Oil - Crude(WTI) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
Crude oil is displaying serious weaknessCrude oil is trapped in a descending triangle after a blow off top. might take some time to play out but target for crude oil based on the triangle is 42-40 crude oil.
13-11 Oil13-11 Oil This commodity has a weakness, namely the economic growth in China. Despite the fact that Opec is reducing production, the world economy is experiencing a slowdown. We have placed a first sell at 67,718.
WTI CRUDE OIL: confirmed bottom formation. Buy and target 77.50.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.429, MACD = -0.380, ADX = 24.190) but that bearish sentiment is the ideal buy entry as the price hit today the top of the S1 Zone and stayed supported, extending the sideways price action of the last 2 days. The 4H RSI is on HL, which has been the distinct characteristic of all prior 3 bottoms. Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we expect a strong rebound to start even as soon as tomorrow, to test the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 77.50).
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USOIL YEARLY OUTLOOK Will the US post-election continue to impair the oil price?
The election of Donald Trump has changed the dynamics of the market, causing oil prices to drop, with more negative pressure anticipated.
Global purchasers now pay more for oil due to a rising US dollar, which exacerbates concerns over oversupply.
Since recent economic measures have not yet produced immediate stimulus, China's demand outlook remains poor.
USOIL formed a weekly and daily Head-and-Shoulder pattern, signaling a continuation of bearish pressures.
If USOIL breaks below 68 - 62 necklines(blue and yellow bar), the price may continue its bearish movement to the nearby major support of 43 - 33
On the contrary, if USOIL remains above 68.00, the price may trade within the 68.00-84 range until an apparent breakout occurs.
WTI crude Wave Analysis 13 November 2024
- WTI crude oil reversed from the multi-year support level 66.70
- Likely to rise to resistance level 70.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the powerful multi-year support level 66.70 (which has been repeatedly reversing WTI from the end of 2021, as seen from the weekly WTI chart below).
The support level 66.70 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the nearby support level 66.70 and the bullish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 70.00.
US Oil (WTI Crude) Bullish Based on 1H and 4H Divergence with St
1. Market Analysis:
Asset: US Oil (WTI Crude)
Timeframes: 1-hour (1H) and 4-hour (4H)
Setup: Bullish divergence observed on both 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes
Support Level: Price is near a strong support zone, providing a solid base for a potential bounce.
2. Divergence Details:
Bullish Divergence: Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are showing bullish divergence, indicating weakening bearish momentum as the price approaches strong support. This divergence can signal a potential reversal to the upside if confirmed by bullish price action.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Enter a long position when a bullish confirmation candle forms (such as a bullish engulfing or hammer candle) on the 1-hour chart after divergence confirmation. This candle should close above the support level for a stronger entry signal.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just below the strong support level to protect against further downside risk. This positioning ensures risk is limited in case the support does not hold.
Take-Profit: Aim for a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio, targeting the next resistance levels on the chart. Consider recent highs or Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour timeframe as potential take-profit areas.
4. Risk Management:
Position Size: Determine position size based on risk tolerance, ensuring only a small percentage of capital is risked on this trade (e.g., 1-2%).
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aiming for at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio provides an advantageous setup, enhancing potential reward relative to risk.
5. Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for an increase in volume on the 1-hour chart as the price bounces from support to confirm strong buying interest.
Support-Resistance Alignment: Ensure the support level aligns well with recent price structure and support zones on higher timeframes to reinforce the strength of this setup.
6. Trade Execution:
Place Orders: Set buy orders, stop-loss, and take-profit levels according to the criteria above.
Monitor the Trade: Manage the trade by adjusting the stop-loss to break even or trailing it if the price moves strongly in your favor.
7. Review and Adjust:
Post-Trade Analysis: After closing the trade, review the outcome to evaluate effectiveness and learn from the trade setup.
USOIL: Key Levels to Watch Amid CPI-Driven VolatilityUSOIL Analysis
Today, WTI Crude Oil is positioned for potential volatility with the upcoming CPI release, expected at 2.6%. This inflation data could significantly influence market direction.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 68.53
Resistance Levels: 70.49, 71.78, 72.74
Support Levels: 67.03, 65.85, 63.51
Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: A break and close above the pivot line at 68.53 could drive prices toward 70.49 and potentially higher levels at 71.78. Sustained trading above these levels may further confirm the bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 68.53 and breaks below 67.03, it could lead to a bearish move toward 65.85 and eventually 63.51, aligning with a potential market reaction to higher-than-expected CPI data.
Today's CPI release is anticipated to cause notable volatility, so monitor these levels closely for potential breakouts in either direction.
Crude steadiesCrude prices managed to steady yesterday, having declined sharply since hitting a three-week high last Thursday. Front-month WTI was a touch firmer in early trade this morning as well. But it feels as if this could turn out to be nothing more than a brief pause before prices head downwards once again. The fundamental picture remains unchanged. Supply remains plentiful, and in the absence of a supply shock from either the Middle East or Eastern Europe, that situation is unlikely to change. The Trump election victory should encourage more US production through tax cuts and deregulation. The only question is whether US producers will want to increase output, given that they are already producing at record levels, and that crude prices are low. Meanwhile, demand isn’t keeping up with supply, and this explains why OPEC+ producers have extended their output cuts for an extra month, until the end of December. Chinese demand has fallen further than previously forecast. The world's biggest oil importer recorded a sixth consecutive decline in crude oil arrivals in October, and last week’s much-hyped fiscal stimulus will do little to change that. On Tuesday OPEC released its latest monthly report. It said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s forecast of 1.93 million bpd. It also reduced its demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.54 million barrels per day, from 1.64 previously.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 70.38
1st Support: 67.68
1st Resistance: 72.82
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