WTI - How will oil react to the elections?!In the 4H timeframe, oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. In case of rising due to increasing tensions, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell in that range with appropriate risk reward. If the downward trend continues and the support range is broken, you can buy oil at the bottom of the downward channel.
Under President Joe Biden, U.S. oil and gas production has reached new records, and the outcome of the U.S. election is unlikely to significantly impact commodities like energy in the short term. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the election result will have minimal influence on most commodity prices over the next few months.
However, differences in candidates’ views on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and foreign policy toward Iran could notably impact oil and gas prices over the next five years.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. economy is very resilient, expressing concerns over global inflation, spending, and the U.S. budget deficit. He advised focusing on the long-term interest rates in the U.S.
Solomon emphasized the importance of U.S. long-term interest rates and mentioned that the Federal Reserve will base its 2025 decisions on economic data. He also noted that geopolitical impacts on Goldman Sachs’ business are minimal but voiced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister announced that the country remains committed to maintaining a production capacity of 12.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
In Q3, British Petroleum (BP) reported a net profit of $2.3 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This compares to $2.8 billion in Q2 and $3.3 billion in Q3 2023. BP shares have declined by over 14% since the start of the year.
BP is also targeting new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost oil and gas production. A BP spokesperson stated that the company will continue as a simpler, more focused, and higher-value entity. Other oil companies like Shell and Total are also preparing to release their quarterly reports shortly.
