CPI report came as expected ,
Hi, this is my own simple analysis about Gold and Oil (Not a financial advice).
WTICOUSD trade ideas
CTKS Method Analysis: Oil Prices in FocusCrude oil is stuck between two structural monthly resistance lines (blue). On the daily chart, there’s a descending broadening wedge with a 50/50 breakout ratio — not very helpful as a leading indicator. A breakout could surprise the market and have a massive impact, as one of the CTKS Masterclass rules emphasizes: consolidation fuels explosions 💥
Scenarios:
🟢 Positive: Break above $72-$73 → strong bullish momentum
🟡 Neutral: Price stays between $67-$72 → consolidation
🔴 Negative: Break below $67 → potential drop toward $60
Given current conditions, I expect a neutral scenario with potential for a bullish breakout in January. Where do you think oil will end this month?
#CTKSmethod #Oil #Trading #MarketAnalysis
OIL: Three days breakout traders long in the market Hello traders and hope you are doing good! Today I would like to analyse deeply this market, trying to understand the logic behind my thesis. Do not forget to support and comment my idea, nothing change to you, but is really supportive to me.
Overall, OIL looks like potentially going to complete a two weeks dump and pump template, and especially today with CPI and OIL major red news on calendar, it can be pretty interesting, but let's go deeper.
The last week, since Wednesday the market drastically dumped down, breaking on Friday the low of week and closing the day/week in breakout, with short traders in the market. Now, typically, depending on the behaviour of price, the market can keep going breaking lower or reversing if volume is trapped down low, as it happened in this specific scenario.
I would say then, that the low of week can be locked and it may start the reversal process, going to stop short traders from Wednesday.
Monday, in the new week, the market placed a higher high (because it broke the Friday high of day), closing the day as first green day, which is a strong signal of market reversal.
Tuesday, volume was trapped almost all the day below Monday closing price, and a dump and pump session setup pushed the price even higher!
Wednesday, today, market kept breaking higher, potentially higher time frames long traders are driving this move.
Let's discuss about the thesis, as you may already know, I do not predict the market, but I just show what it can be (as per my criteria) the highest probability setup, setting for the day.
The long thesis, which is my current and main view, targeting the previous HOW, could be really interesting if the price will dump down into the low placed in London session, consolidating till 10:30am OIL news release for a buy low long trade setup, which I will be really willing to take.
However, the market can consolidate up high into the current HOD/HOW, for a short scalp back into any higher level long, for example low of London or yesterday closing price, but I will be updating this analysis every hour from the beginning of NY session 8am NYT.
Remember, I do not predict any movement but I only trade setup!
See you later every one and let me know if you need any clarification!
USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is clearly rising on the 12H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 66.99 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
US OIL Trade Log
WTI Crude Oil 1H Short Setup
Trade Idea:
- Bearish wedge forming with price stalling in the 1H FVG (premium zone).
- Confluence:
- Bearish Divergences: CVD and RSI confirm weakening momentum.
- Macroeconomics: Fundamentals lean bearish; CPI results pose a potential risk.
- Risk-Reward: Tight stop above the FVG. Targeting a 1:2.55 RRR down to liquidity grab zones below $68.
Quick Take:
This setup aligns technical weakness with fundamental caution. Stay nimble with CPI in play—adapt if the macro picture shifts. Target lower liquidity pockets if rejection confirms!
USOIL BULL Triangle The oil chart is showcasing a large triangle pattern within a smaller triangle, and the breakout of the smaller triangle to the upside strongly suggests that the larger triangle will also be broken. This breakout signals the potential to target significantly higher levels.
Additionally, the bottom has been tested approximately four times, with the last test clearing out all liquidity. Now, the chart appears to be gearing up for a major upward move after a prolonged accumulation phase.
As for my perspective, I’m betting on oil’s rise rather than its decline, even though the current triangle formation is typically a bearish (descending) triangle.
The second entry opportunity will present itself after the larger triangle is broken and confirmed through a retest.
Note: I don't care about the count if it right or not don't comment on that please
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 68.47 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 67.59 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 69.66 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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USOIL MARKET ANALYSIS AN DPRICE DIRECTIONUSOIL, has finished Renegotiation at the Rejection zone, there is a reorder already. The market is at the at the 61:8% discount price. Its a perfect entry for the Bulls. The price may retrace little and continue on the Long Journey. First Take profit is at the Trend Line Liquidity and second Take Profit is at The Renegotiation Resistance to clear off the Buyside Liquidity.
Entry, Take profit 1 and 2 , stop loss are clearly stated on the Chat.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
grandpa Trump will drop the oilThe president-elect's support for U.S. oil is the first point.
Secondly, the world economy is not in the best condition, which affects demand.
Consequently, supply is growing and demand is sagging.
Buy opportunityBuy Signal:
Entry: Around $67.94 (current level) if bullish confirmation is observed, such as a strong candlestick reversal or increased volume near the support zone.
Target: $77.36 as the first target and $80.09 as the second target.
Stop-Loss: Below the support zone at $64.50 to minimize risk.
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Risk: ~$3.44 (entry at $67.94, stop-loss at $64.50).
Reward: ~$12.12 (target at $80.09).
Usoil 2HVery simple and without any additional explanation, this purchase deal has a reasonable risk reward and the probability of winning this deal is over 80%!
US OilUS Oil - Crude Oil
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure and Retracement
Demand Zone
CHOCH
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
USOIL | 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME | TECHNICAL CHARTHello guys, I made TVC:USOIL analysis for you. Please support me by pressing the like button on my analysis.
Stay with love guys.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 66.90 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 66.23 which is a level that lies underneath the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Take profit is at 68.51 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil (WTI) on the Daily Timeframe 1DOn the daily chart, we can observe the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern , where the price has reached the bottom of this pattern, aligning with a key support level at $66.06. This level has historically acted as strong support, preventing further declines.
Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is near the oversold zone , indicating a potential decrease in selling pressure and a likely rebound in demand at this level.
Considering these factors, I anticipate that the price will break out of the triangle to the upside and continue its bullish movement toward the next resistance level at $78.10 . However, as always, there is no certainty in the market, so proper risk management is essential.
This analysis is intended for educational purposes and as an idea for further exploration. The final trading decisions are the responsibility of traders.
Targets:
Resistance ahead: $78.10
Stop-loss:
A break and close below the $66.06 support level
What are your thoughts on this analysis?
USOIL CLEAR TRIAGLEThe outlook for USOIL is extremely bullish as it is potentially completing the Elliott Wave B as a contracting triangle. This pattern often signals a powerful continuation toward the primary trend once Wave C begins. The Ending Triangle structure indicates that the market has been consolidating in a compressed, corrective pattern, and we are likely nearing the final stages of this consolidation. As Wave B nears its end, it sets the stage for a strong breakout to the upside.
Given that oil experienced substantial upward momentum nearly 2 years ago, the market is positioned for a significant surge once Wave C unfolds. The key to this bullish outlook lies in the fact that Ending Triangles often lead to sharp moves in the direction of the dominant trend, which in this case is upward for USOIL. Once Wave C begins, it could propel prices toward new highs, potentially breaking through key resistance levels and establishing a fresh bullish trend.
Moreover, the wave structure suggests a well-organized market, with, I believe institutions building large positions in the energy sectors for a larger move. The completion of Wave B indicates the final corrective phase before an explosive rally, providing an excellent opportunity for traders to position themselves for a breakout. The market is poised for a major upward thrust, and the overall sentiment is aligned with a potential rise in oil prices.
Bearish drop?WTI/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 68.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retraecment.
Stop loss: 70.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 67.09
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Oil prices rebound on expectations of Chinese economic stimulus
Oil prices rebounded as Chinese authorities demonstrated their strong will to stimulate the economy. Chinese authorities announced that they will continue to respond to the economy with a more active fiscal policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption. Meanwhile, Aramco announced it would cut its OSP for Asian refineries to 90 cents lower per barrel. This is the lowest since Jan 2021, when global demand was weak due to the pandemic.
USOIL briefly broke below the support at 67.60 but rebounded, compensating some of the decline. However, the price stays within the downward channel, maintaining bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below 67.60 again and the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA78 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 70.00 threshold.
USOIL Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a selling opportunity around 70 zone, USOIL is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 70 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
A case for oil to rise/rally. Xmas period + world turmoil
I took a position in USOUSD a couple of days ago on Friday, I felt it reasonable that oil was undervalued & with more money starting to flow back to households with reduced interest rates worldwide, albeit Australia and soon to become a 'banana republic' as it was supposed to become a a couple of decades ago.
So, oil I tip may be breaking out and if you take a position in USOUSD as I have, well you might be keen to know that if price plays out for USOUSD as I think it will because of the bullish head n shoulders on the daily chart, forget the 15m chart HnS's pattern because this is on the Daily and its a mammoth pattern that if triggered very soon as I think it will later in the week, take price up to 90+ in a heartbeat.
Take a look at the chart Daily. The bullish story is there including a strong Bottom 3 pattern which price is launching from currently.
Below, 15 minute chart USOUSD showing price-action bouncing off the triple bottom acting as strong support, price is keen to move upwards in the next pattern. H&S's pattern will nudge price to 90+ possibly by end of next week.
USOIL Short Plan For Coming DaysMonthly Candle Close below Previous Candle and Sweep Previous Candle High, So I am Looking Bearish Trend for USOIL, Here is my Short Plan, If You Following Then Follow with Risk Management.
Oil Ready for a Breakout? Oil fell 1.7% on Friday to close at 2 week lows of 67.21, as traders digested OPEC+’s decision from the day before, to postpone planned production increases from January to April 2025.
While this OPEC+ move was widely seen as a positive attempt to address the current expected Oil surplus moving into next year, it seems the initial assessment was that it’s probably unlikely to go far enough to absorb extra production from the Americas and a slowdown in Chinese demand in the short term.
So, could this negative sentiment continue to weigh on Oil?
It’s a big week ahead, with the Bank of Canada (BoC), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) all expected to cut interest rates between 25bps (0.25%) and 50bps (0.5%), which may provide a boost to Oil prices from Friday’s closing levels. However, any potential impact remains uncertain and will depend on broader market conditions and other economic factors.
Also, tomorrow China reports its trade data from November at 0300 GMT, which will provide an update on global and domestic demand. Then on Wednesday, top Chinese leaders will attend their annual Central Economic Work Conference, where they are expected to discuss the country’s growth target for 2025, alongside new stimulus measures to help hit that number. While this is a closed door event, any headlines outlining what was discussed could have a positive or negative impact on Oil prices later in the week.
On the technical front the charts also look interesting.
Since the 65.63 low in Oil on September 10th 2024, a period of choppy sideways activity has developed, as buyers and sellers have matched one another. This has been reflected by a converging triangle pattern, the extremes of which to start the week outline the 67.08 level as possible support, and the 69.46 level as potential resistance.
The converging trendlines on the chart above, suggest that while buyers have appeared at a slightly higher level each time, the steeper slope of the downtrend connecting recent highs, indicates it takes less of a rally in price for sellers to appear once more.
This selling pressure following Wednesday’s test of the downtrend on the chart above, saw last week end with fresh tests of the 67.08 trendline support, which is now the focus this week. How this level is defended on a daily closing basis, may offer clues to future directional moves.
Of course, there is no indication when or if a breakout from this pattern will materialise and no guarantee that if one is seen, it will result in a sustained move. However, closes below 67.08 may see more extended weakness, but that is very much dependent on future price trends.
If a confirmed break lower does materialise, the risks could be to test what might prove next support marked by the 65.63 September 12th low, possibly even towards 63.68, the May 2023 extreme.
We stress breaks of support haven’t yet materialised, and while this holds, its possible strength can be seen once more to challenge the 69.46 downtrend resistance level.
If activity is to turn towards possibilities of a more extended recovery, closes above this 69.46 level are required, which may in turn lead to tests of what could be resistance marked by the 71.57 November 25th session high.
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Crude oil struggles onCrude oil is a touch firmer this morning. This has lifted front-month WTI back to where it started a week ago. Overall, last week split cleanly into a positive first half which saw WTI briefly break above $70 a barrel, and a dismal second half which saw it drop back to $67. In between there was a delayed OPEC+ meeting and the ousting of Assad from Syria. The former saw the cartel extend its production cuts until April next year, as expected. This is helping to put a floor under crude prices, and should continue to do so. Front-month WTI has generally found some support around $66.50 since October, while the low of $65 has held since May 2023. At the same time, there has been a succession of lower highs since September 2023. Prices have come under continued downward pressure thanks to plentiful supply, and weakening demand. China’s economic slowdown following its property crisis must take the blame for the latter, although demand across Asia as a whole is down significantly this year. Perhaps equity investors should take more notice of lower oil prices, and consider what these prices are telling them about the economic outlook
