While election betting sites are coming into the spotlight these days, another way to bet on the upcoming election is through betting on the Mexican economy. Anecdotal evidence indicates that China and even US manufacturing giants are set to build more plants in Mexico should the Harris team win. Trump on the other hand, promises tariffs on items manufactured...
Precious metals continue to rocket higher and even as Central Banks around the world flock to gold and lighten up on US Dollar exposure, lagging far behind is silver that is still quite a ways from its all time high close to 50. Reverse head and shoulders formations show some possible targets in the 34-35 area but my best speculative bet is that SLV will hit its...
Interest rates continue to react to "unbelievably seasonally adjusted" economic data. And while one can complain and point out the methodologies, I believe that the markets are smarter than that. I won't predict how high it might go, but anticipate that it will be one of my big winners in 2025.
A Wave 4 50% indicated price would drop to 31.10. Filled at 31.05. Wave 5 should push prices above Wave 3. While I will take some profits around the $40 level, as I did when price hit $33, my initial target, China will be a force going forward so I will maintain a long-term stock position. Thus far, this has been an exceptional trade after initially...
The Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness...
For those who had the patience to buy and hold at the major double bottom, China finally gooses the market and FXI is breaking out. Originally targeted 33 but it appears that it could go to the 1,618 fib. Still a long term hold in my book
Current price rebound struggling at the .328 fib. Failure here leads to probable move down to the next measured move, -0.236 fib, at 497.
This auto view shows a significant drop to SPY 2250 levels. Good idea to raise cash and sit back waiting for the dust to settle. But have been building a short position at the 5500 level.
Could be just a little correction in this larger leg down. A 1 to 1 relationship between the expected wave and the first shows that SPY would find support around 523.
General Mills has been gaining a bit of strength crossing above it's 20 week moving average. Volatility is dead flat. Transacting a June 25 67.5 buy/write, in addition to a 3.5% dividend results in this play producing in annualized rate of return in excess of 12%. I do this kind of strategy in a qualified account as dividends received in a buy/write...
Wave B corrected 50% at 556.5 and now wave C begins. If C = A, target 540
Alcoa is dropping fast but may find support at the bottom of the parallel channel, completing wave 4. An A = C price target is 34.10. Upper channel moves to better than 55 by end of the year. I'll be watching the Std indicator for a buy signal.
GLD is at the neckline of a well defined head and shoulders top. A breakdown would see GLD at 200.
After a big move up, Silver may enter into a long consolidation phase. The Standard Deviation chart indicates volatility continuing to fall being that the Bollinger bands will be moving in towards the moving average. As such, i'm putting in Iron Condor strategy anticipating that SLV prices will remain within the 25-30 range through the rest of the year.
Sure does appear to be a typical Wave 3 extension formation. 2.618 fib measurement of Wave 1 would put SLV at 33.70
As anticipated, FXI is testing the breakout level just below 27. Good spot to add more if you have been following this from the recent double bottom buy call a while back.
A Wave 3 down is just starting now and can move the dollar index down to 90. Continue loading up on commodities.
While today's down move may look dramatic to some, two things going on. One is a typical .382 Fib retracement. The other, a test of the breakout level. Looks like an easy run to the top of the trend channel above 230.