This chart illustrates the characteristics of TLT's past 3 super spike. And I SPECULATE we may have a 4th one coming that can quickly send TLT to $160 level. The catch is to buy at current level and set a stop at $126 level. You may have $3 to $4 risk but the potential reward can be $20+.
TIP finally breaks out. It validated the weak dollar, strong gold, and maybe anticipating some form of QE (given the weakening economy).
40 week MA rolled over and is pointing down. Also a down slop channel is formed.
Dollar has a flattened 40 week MA and price fell below a major support, and below 40 week MA. This is significant as it may fall to the blue support line. Weak dollar is generally good for precious metals, commodities, and emerging market.
It has a reverse head and shoulders, broke out, retested the neckline and now broke out again. RSI and MACD look great. I think next target is $26.8.
The rising wedge is exhausting and looks like it is rolling over. MACD maybe catching up.
May be getting into the red box and stay there for a while, but will not stay there forever. I consider it a game changer if it can retake 200 DMA. Given the downslope 200 DMA, and the presence of the mega phone pattern, it is more likely the currently rally is running its course and the next leg is more likely to go down than up.
Looks interesting now, as it has the potential to spike to $45, also has the potential to start next leg down (might be $20 dollar level). We will know better next week or two. In terms of risk vs. reward, I think it is getting riskier (either keep holding, or initiate new position to long).
Good chance for $10 drop, at least for short term.
RSI broke out, MACD positive. All good signs. I expect it to pull back from the channel resistance, even it can break out from the channel, there are several overhead resistances. Risk/award is not favorable at this time.
MACD broke out, RSI rising channel formed. and price is breaking out of the channel. A pullback from here is reasonable but a continuing rising RSI may signal a strong breakout in coming weeks.
I expect it to struggle a little bit (and even pull back some) from current level. A breakout (going above the blue line) will send it to $22 level. Note MACD and RSI all broke out and are challenging previous highs.
Continued pullback within well defined channel, and thus most like the pullback is purely technical. The overall up trend is intact.
SPY was able to close above 40 week MA which is impressive. If this is indeed a "bear market counter trend rally", a pullback should be right around the corner. Given the the direction of 40 week MA, current risk/award is not favorable. So I will continue to be cautious and will not chase the market at this point.
Last week VIX closed at a level similar to that of May, 2008. I suspect VIX may have bottomed and may spike soon.
The bullish trend appears to be still intact. More pullback likely (given the price and RSI channel). Note MACD is still positive.
The blue support line is critical. Right now the breakout is still tentative. We will how it will close this month. Hopefully it will stay breakout and go above the 10 month MA.
In bull market in ONE week. (open price: 20.60, close price: 24.99, 21.3% gain). Weekly technical is in sweet spot and I think it has a lot potential. Waiting for some pullback and consolidation and a better entry.