Exercise-Discipline

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Is Bitcoin Cash the real Bitcoin? I have no idea. All I know is, the price has impulsively picked up momentum. The market is re-valuing BCH. Get ready.

Exercise-Discipline

Extremely similar pattern to this summer. High probability of another bull run?

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Hmmmm, I get it, long EUR because of current account differentials, QE taper, balance sheet normalisation, US political uncertainty, French elections over, everything rosy in Europe. But often, the obvious is obviously wrong . If EUR respects 1.20-1.21 as overhead resistance, then we could be looking at just a 50% retracement of the huge down leg. Suggesting...

Exercise-Discipline

Nice uptrend for no big fundamental reason Buy the dips boys

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Market 'faith' in SNB seems restored now. CHF's weakening, everybody's happy, Jordan is on the beach having a good one. But the obvious is obviously wrong. Weekly divergence has popped up again. CHF strengthening for no reason recently. All signs of an imminent retreat in EURCHF and other CHF pairs.

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Bullish pattern on BTCUSD. Volatility tightening. Suppressed volatility leads to hypervolatility.

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

NZD long interest is at record highs. Many fundamental arguments for why NZD is overpriced - mainly NZD is biggest proponent of carry trade in G10. Recession risk is underpriced - NZD the loser in global recession which is long overdue and WILL occur at some point due to 'tightening' financial conditions - USD, JPY the beneficiaries here NZD longs have...

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Technically: rising wedge (bearish) Fundamentally: JPY short positioning overextended JPY safe haven in the event of equity downturn GBP strength keeps inflation low - BoE will not hike Brexit uncertainty remains GBP positioning not overextended - room for shorts to build Sentiment Speculative market sentiment is very bearish yen; underestimating...

Exercise-Discipline

Speculative Euro interest is at highs. Speculative Yen interest is at lows. Bearish divergence on daily chart. This might be the near term top.

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Quite a large head and shoulders formation on FCTBTC. Might suggest that, whilst FCT might retain its $ value, BTC will accelerate and regain dominance. Quite a large bullish triangle setting up on BTCUSD too.

Exercise-Discipline

Is this a medium term top for EURUSD? Technicals Bearish divergence seen on daily chart. Upside momentum is slowing. DXY showing same, if not stronger divergence. Sentiment Consensus has become EUR positive - in fact, extremely EUR positive. Fundamentals All banks raising long term forecasts for EUR. Even though last month's inflation reading...

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As in chart. Supported by fundamental bearish outlook on USDJPY.

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Macro fundamentals Uncertainty remains until GE on June 8. Even after GE, Brexit uncertainty remains. This is GBP negative in the medium term. Sentiment Speculative short positioning is NOT overextended, as was the case a few months ago. There is room for large speculators to build net short GBP positions. Market sentiment was very GBP positive until...

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As in chart

Exercise-Discipline

Annual momentum (price vs 3 year MA) shows a triangle formation. A weekly close above this triangle (possibly happening now) will mean gold begins a multi-year secular move to the upside. Momentum structures in DXY also suggest that USD has begun a downtrend. Get ready.

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As in chart Fundamentals - current A/C differentials will dictate FX moves leading to outflows from US, bearish pressure on equities

Exercise-Discipline

As in chart

Exercise-Discipline

As in chart