TreeDoc

TreeDoc

Nat Gas could see buyer influx if there's a move over 2.30

TreeDoc

This is a longer range chart of Nat Gas with it's clear descending wedge structure, which is overlaid with clone levels. The reference range for the clones is the spike at the start of the winter season 2018. The safest long trade - if there is such a thing with NGas at a time when Permian Gas is beng flared off at a criminal rate - would be to hit it as low as...

TreeDoc

WTI: Potential is there to see circa $70 by end of year especially if OPEC+ get their act together on Dec 5th. The price churn we have seen Thur and Fri suggest that the funds are re-assessing their risk profile and building up their depleted long positions. The current price is at support level, and as such is a risky buy and risky sell. Hence the need for...

TreeDoc Updated 

WTI has out performed Brent for two weeks. The incentive is for Brent to lead the oil complex this week. The chart suggests it could go either way with as good a case to be made for staying with WTI.

TreeDoc Updated 

There is too much pressure world wide to cope with the trade wars. It's going to be a race to the bottom. Central bankers world wide are now of the view that the only way to support ailing economies is to reduce interest rates and avoid the additional burden they bring on indebted companies. After the US currencies rapid rise as an alternative to weaker global...

TreeDoc Updated 

There are a number of non-financial motives in the USA to keep the interest rates artificially low. The election is the primary one. The incumbent President will find it supportive to ensure that the large cap indexes high and the debt payments of the public manageable, at least to past the election date. Also should the trade war with China continue to sap the...

TreeDoc

GBP looking set for more down even after falling for 10 weeks. Risk of ego driven no-deal Brexit will be calculated this week. Parity with Euro is very close. Boris Johnson Is likely to be elected the new Prime Minister of Britain by an aged and unrepresentative 0.2% of the population. Brexit cannot be achieved through normal parliamentary democracy - and so...

TreeDoc

64.3 has been supportive, now is resistivity. The commodity had difficulty breaking thru on Friday possibly because of the threat to British shipping after British marines captured the Iranian tanker in Spanish waters. Regardless Brent is now just over that level and at a decision point. A move up could see it reaching $70 rapidly. A failure here could see a...

TreeDoc

Friday's job's numbers could well have been the last hoorah for the USD. Trump's attitude will be called into question when the Fed will need to summarize the prospect of the whole economy on Wed and Thursday in the face of mounting trade wars and intense political criticism at home and over seas. Friday's rapid turn back into the down channel and long wick...

TreeDoc

We are now well into the driving season with additional incentive moving the crack margins upwards: namely the loss of the Philadelphia PES Refinery -ve 335 kbbl capacity and no obvious solution to the shipping risk in the Straits of Hormuz. RBOB has been very responsive to a simple channel moves for many months. There is no need to over complicate RBOB. It's a...

TreeDoc

USD was overstimulated with generous tax cuts in 2018 and now has to pay the price. The ongoing trade war with China is adding pressure. The rising wedge has already broken. The rejection at the higher clone levels suggest a fall back to the bottom of a long established channel. Commodities will be boosted by this fall and that will add to inflation...

TreeDoc

Overbought UKOIL leading the move down

TreeDoc

USOIL is very cyclical in nature. Breaks happen suddenly and without warning. Prepare your positions to deal with rapid change, and have an exit plan ready.

TreeDoc

Oil hard to oppose here. The downdraft was overdone so the oil price is now compensating upwards looking for fair value, while new news including the first reduction in US production and the first reduction of the US rig count this year is adding coal to the boiler. Bot were announced this week. Watch for the Chinese Caixin PMI on Sunday 2 July. This will give...

TreeDoc Updated 

Whatever the political BS from Trump's ardous travels away from his own bed, great, amazing TV soaps and pet cheese burger (never has a US president suffered as much for so long for his country!) - I'd suggest that both Saudi and USA are on the same page and that will not hold oil back. Also the OPEC meeting next week will still hold surprizes which cannot be...

TreeDoc Updated 

The -6M draw on Wednesday took many by surprise, and sounds like oil is being moved around rather than being used up. The price action following the news was subdued, as if there is no enthusiasm for what would have been very bullish news under normal circumstances, given the Fed didn't hike and DXY took a steep fall. OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th,...

TreeDoc

OPEC chatter will limit the price floor for now. Doubts of OPEC ability to reach a meaningful decision will limit the price ceiling, longs have been bitten once already. Expect oil to trade within a range until OPEC have had their meeting. This is good day trader territory.

TreeDoc Updated 

OIl is now suffering from the over-hyped bull effect of opec. Friday's non farm payroll numbers will have a dramatic effect on the US dollar as a high jobs number will put further pressure on the Fed to hike rates in September. Oil will feel that effect.