berzerker2020

berzerker2020

TLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to...

berzerker2020

Since at least 1990, whenever the 3month U.S. Government Bond Yield has risen higher than the 10year Bond, the market top on SPX occurs a short time later. Also, in most cases, whenever the 10year yield has hit the magenta trendline, a 3mo/10yr inversion results within 6-12 months. The 10 year yield is currently above the trendline, implying that we could be 6...