finitemonk

finitemonk

As labelled. This is my current understanding. Given the relationship between this pair and crude, it would appear something needs to take down crude and possibly reduce borrowing costs to an all-time low. Certainly with crude, I don't wholly understand the relationship between this pair and the bond markets / rates but since 2008 the positive correlation is very...

finitemonk

This is probably the most important chart as far as the currency markets go, bond charts that is. Black - TNX (10yr Treasury Note (US)) Red - EuroBunds (Inverted) (The differential between the two is, as far as I can see often reflected in the EURUSD) i suspected most bond rate charts are the same. The little upward zig-zag, right at the end was again reflected...

finitemonk

C, (v), & v as yet not placed. It appears from the count to have more or less completed iii of last minor v(?). The little ending diagonal at what I've labelled iii (of (v) indicates it's struggling to make any substantial further progress up. (I've not actually opened a short position yet. I would probably not recommend anyone to do so until top confirmed, due to...

finitemonk

Wave (a) : 3 parts Wave (b) : 3 parts Wave (c): 5 or 3 parts depending on how counted, labelled. If 5, as seems perhaps appropriate, the whole wave is complete, forming a triangle characteristic of the penultimate wave. From this wave a full motive wave formed down yesterday and during the Asian session, so from here the expectation is to retrace back up, then...

finitemonk

It would appear so. Based on the brilliant chart by Safv6, I thought it should be possible then to analyse long term currency trends by EW. It appears to have completed a 3-3-5 expanded flat, with the C wave just over a 1.382 x of wave A, making a complete B wave. (And I've just noticed wave B within this wave is probably best labelled a 5-3-5 itself - no...

finitemonk

Seems to be the question. IMO not really, not yet. Obviously in the short term, but to me it's within expectation. I've labelled what appears to be wave (c) as a five part wave. It's not really a true motive wave, being made up of corrective subsets, e.g wave (iii) appeared to have an ending diagonal at the wave v position. Best termed an impulsive structure. In...

finitemonk

This is my current understanding. A five wave descent completed early November 2014. It then jumped in a corrective wave to ~ $1300 to form wave (a). It is now completing a minor upthrust correction out of a triangle to form a minor c wave to complete b. In eventuality there appears heavy resistance at 1231 or thereabouts. It appears overall it's trying to form a...

finitemonk

The weeks recent behaviour seems anticipatory of no rate rise. The pattern on this pair, a triple three which appears very near completion and subsequent downward move suggests there may be something between a very strong indication to an actual rise, possibly raising rates by a 'test market reaction' 0.05 to 0.3. Also taking into account indices which seem on...

finitemonk

Quite confusing. Yes-no-yes-go-don't .... I think it's in wave c of (b) near completion. (?) What I'd like it to do is drop to the 1180-88 area to form wave Y, possibly truncated, i.e not the full length, or even as low as 1176, with a third attempted tap on the upper 0.382 of the minor fork. That's how I had the labelling 12 hours ago. Or Y turns out to be a...

finitemonk

This is my current labelling and understanding. Roughly to follow the Cable up as that appears to have formed a bullish flag. (I'm using lower case bold for Minute waves) Of the presumed wave e , composed of wave (a), a 3-3-5, wave (b) appears as an a-b-c with wave b as a triangle, and (c) appears to be unfolding as a full impulse wave, motive giving a sum wave...

finitemonk

The attraction of this is that 1.045 to 1.103 is 1.618 the length / extension of wave ii of (iii); then 1.103 to 0.98 is precisely the same 1200 pips as 1.2499 to 1.3699, what I think may be wave i of (iii). Also according to EW theory if wave 2 is complex (in this case a flag) wave 4 is simple. Plus it's completed a perfect little motive wave over the Asia session.

finitemonk

Short and long where appropriate. That is if I've understood this correctly to be barrier triangle with a bullish outcome, at least temporarily. I think so because the wave labelled b went a few pips higher than the wave labelled (a). I think in the more medium / longer term it may want to take itself nearer to the upper side of the defined channel, which by the...

finitemonk

I don't think so, but I think it's possible. I think currently the rise is down to geopolitics, at the prospect of Saudi Arabia becoming embroiled in war in Yemen. It breached the all important 48.88 level, moving into the wave i territory of the previous wave.

finitemonk

Maybe ... a bit, well, end-y. What I would like to see is for it not to quite reach the upper line of the triangle (possibly) and for the RSI to just fail to touch the downtrend line. It's not really making full use of the channel upside, is it? Uh-oh.

finitemonk

Eventually. Maybe something a bit like this. What I'm interested in is the zig-zagging around $1700, the 0.618/61.8% of wave A (or 1) however labelled. (I prefer to label the first drop A, back up B, then the second drop (1), forming an A-B-C, with C as a full motive unfolding, as can be in corrective waves.) Wave (4) of C then zig-zags over the 1.618/161.8%...

finitemonk

Bullish corrective wave. See previous chart. Slightly expecting price to drop overnight, consolidation, possibly forming a pennant

finitemonk

Bullish. Corrective Wave. Broken out of down channel, price is finding support on Andrews Pitchfork parallels to climb. I'm thinking the Modified Schiff median for potential wave A target, approx. $1210, above 0.382 retracement at $1205.35 (red arrows). The line has good history of price taps along it. It got stuck today under the long term channel line that...

finitemonk

Think so. Good long. My caution as to the full correction back up is these triangles can sometimes be a wave 1 in PMs. Bit cautious pre-FOMC as don't know quite where to place stop. Update: I think it's a wave 1. I do think it's needs to go up quite high, say 17 / 17.50 area otherwise we'll end up in negative territory, presuming this is wave (i) of 3