holeyprofit

holeyprofit

I made a couple attempts at buying BTC. One just before the spike over 100K. Went up for a while and hit a breakeven trailing stop. Secondly I tried into the head fake low we had recently but cut that for a small profit yesterday. In the bull setup I'd have wanted to see a much cleaner bounce off support. Seeing a range around support and indices trading into...

holeyprofit

The big bear candles filled all my short targets and I'd set some pending orders to buy into a following spike. We did get a big bounce off the buy entry zone but I find it a bit suspicious for a possible bull trap. If it is, this is the likely area it ends now. Exited longs and took some shorts yesterday at 6040. If this was Elliot waves, would forecast a...

holeyprofit

MSTR has funded Bitcoin purchases with debt. In this piece we're going to look at how some of the terms of this debt can potentially cause issues if BTC prices decrease. This isn't talking about a margin call sort of event for MSTR, rather it's looking at the risk of terms they could be under in deals they've used to secure capital loans with BTC as collateral....

holeyprofit Updated 

SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that. Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib. In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're...

holeyprofit Updated 

BTC made a low on my long entry, ran up into the first area I expected resistance. I'd expected this to just be an intermediate resistance and then pop but still trailing stops to even on longs. Best practice at resistance. Ended up hitting stops at even. I do think that looked like a legit 1.61 break though. Would pick up a 76 correction if it's offered in the...

holeyprofit Updated 

The JPY interest rates come out soon and this might cause a big move in the Yen. Yen is on major supports and my bias has started to turn from always bearish (via long USDJPY) to feeling rather, potentially, bullish on the Yen. Something I'd love to see for a trade entry would be a massive move into the resistance levels on the news. Maybe some bad news for...

holeyprofit

The Yen index trades at a really interesting level as we head into the BoJ rates decision. We're trading at the 1.61 extension of the previous bull trap. This is a big make or break level. A lot of consideration does have to be given towards the bear break. In a bear break the 1.61 hits. 1.27 often retests and then the 1.61 break. If that happens, Yen can...

holeyprofit Updated 

In the hours before the election result I posted some longform swing plans on SPX covering the event of a 1.27 hold marking a low. The stages of this would been a parabolic move off the 1.27. A run up to 2.20. Some sort of stall there and then a follow through to 2.61. We now have all stages of that and in the 6050 - 6080 area I exited all my SPX longs taken...

holeyprofit

Here's a simple template that can help you to draw good fib extensions off different useful swings when the is a possible Elliot wave pattern. This should help to flag up the high probability areas in a nice expression of the Elliot pattern and also give you warning levels to watch along the way in case the nice simple pattern fails. We're going to focus on...

holeyprofit Updated 

BTC recently hit the 1.61 extension of the previous drop. When this 1.61 is met in a breakout, there are three main things that tend to happen. One is a reversal. Exceptional spikes ending at 1.61s can be found at the end of many trends. That would be a rare thing in this context, but it's always worth trailing stops at 1.61s. A more common reaction at the...

holeyprofit Updated 

In this post I want to share with you an idea I've shared with my friends irl who have market exposure. Heading into the 2022 high I strongly encouraged my friends to sell stocks. We were heading into a multi decade resistance level and I'd put the odds somewhere around 80% there'd be a notable reaction to this level. Could be a pullback, could be a crash. If...

holeyprofit Updated 

I honestly wish everyone in the market well and I hope things work out for the bulls. I'm not a salty person hoping people lose just for the sake of it, but some people really need to get a grip. Every single time I discuss crypto here people DEMAND I adopt their point of view. Even although I thoroughly explain my methods. Have a track record of catching many...

holeyprofit

Building more on the idea of a USD crash explained in previous ideas, here's the silver setup. Silver has a pending butterfly reversal patten on it. Currently we have a 1.61 high and a pullback to 1.27. From the perspective of USD bulls, the 1.61 high is encouraging but the 1.27 has to break - otherwise, failure of the butterfly is very likely. Failure of the...

holeyprofit Updated 

Here's a complimenting USDJPY analysis to the C leg hypothesis explained in the below post. I've been buying USDJPY a lot recently. Heavily loading up into the aggressive crash moves intraday, moving stops to even and by this point fully expecting that nice clean rip to new daily highs, where I begin to trail stops and look to repeat into the next crash....

holeyprofit

I think we're at a major point for USD. It's either about to make a strong bullish breakout or the failure of that implied a sharp down move in the dollar. I've been very bullish on the USD for a while and will be ultra bullish if the following breakouts can be made, but this is also the point where it's best to prep for the failure of the USD bull move - which...

holeyprofit

In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move. Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be. Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them. Let's...

holeyprofit

Anytime a forecast on BTC is made using methods outside of the accepted ones or making forecasting outside of the popular models, invariably the same floods of comments come. People always assume you must; Not know about (the thing we all know about). Hate BTC (or whatever the thing is) Want the world to burn

holeyprofit

Many people here are eager to explain the bets people should make based on the halving but they're never willing to answer the obvious questions about the hypothesis. Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to: Why the indices correlation? When you run an analysis on SPX...