holeyprofit

holeyprofit

I've explained my BTC thesis is depth and discussed my entries into the proxy bets of COIN and ETH shorts last week. Another one I have been wanting to short for some time now if MSTR but it has the pending harmonic and it had not hit the 1.61 yet. Until that is hit, there's always a chance you short and it goes parabolic immediately and then tops a bit over...

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I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns. I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just...

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I see social media awash with the posts about the BTC breakout. We are close. Very close to a legit breakout and if it comes, I'll retract a good amount of the ill talk I did on the halving theory (Not all of it, I still think assuming flawless cycles on 2 events is silly) - if I am wrong, I'll change my stance. However, if this is going to fail we will be into...

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This post is going to take a look at all of the instances in BTC history of there being a major breakout (This is doable, it's not as many as you may think) and compare the action in those breakouts to the action we have now. Let's first define the action we have now. We can argue all day over different patterns this can be called but there are a few things we...

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I've been consistent in my net bullish bias on USDJPY since 150. The TA made sense and at the time it seemed silly to me that all of a sudden absolutely everyone, with no Forex experience, all suddenly were entirely certain the USDJPY was going to crash. I've been a Forex trader a long time. Seen a lot of people come and go. If the game was as simple as look...

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I've been generally bearish on BTC a while. Usually buying supports (As is my contrarian style) but on a swing basis I think the general space looks weak. Follow through on this rally would likely change my mind, but if it is weak ,then we'd be at the end of this rally. I've mainly contained my bets on crypto short to COIN, ETH and a few other alts. I track...

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1.61 extensions can be a common level for false breakouts. One of the times in which we know we can see 1.61 false breakouts is in Elliot wave 5. This perhaps is reason we find so many 1.61 extensions at big highs. We've been trading at this level for a while now. Tried to sell twice and now we have a wick after the news. If this sells again, then we...

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USDJPY looks very bearish on the daily charts and it is close to making major breaks of the bullish uptrend, but if the bullish uptrend is going to hold USDJPY is likely already at or very close to a low. I've been wanting to go swing long USDJPY for a while. Made a few entries. Had some instantly go a couple 100 pips for me. Had some instantly hitting stop...

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PLTR has reached the 76t retracement of the previous drop. Unless you're very new to following my work, you'll know I love to trade off 76 fibs. If you are new, read my strategy post about it: Quick recap on PLTR analysis history. I have no idea what PLTR does but I became aware of it in 2021 when option sellers on Reddit seemed to think it was free money. I...

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I think this is the start a rally in PLTR to at least 30 - 35. Could even take it up to a new high. Will update on targeting later if the early part of the move succeeds.

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Bull traps have gotten more tricky in modern times with us having to account for various types of trickery, but the basic model for a bull trap (Or any reversal off a retracement) is to look for a 76 retracement. Here's the strategy for this. So many crypto charts look like this. All of them screaming bull trap. ETH has been developing for a while. COIN...

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Over the last years RUT has formed a textbook version of the "Return to normal" bull trap. Recently it spiked in a W pattern into the resistance level that stopped the 2021 rally. Suddenly, people who've never mentioned RUT before are explaining how this is a critical bullish breakout. What could possibly go wrong?

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The popularity of indices have come a long way over the last decades. Back when Bogle first marketed and popularised the idea, it was deemed to be "Un-American". Randomly allocating value to things based on their placing in an index. That's basically communism. That's the kinda thing that was being said back in the day. But Bogle persisted and the indices...

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Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing. I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has...

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The case for us being in the completion of bearish Elliot waves on AAPL is compelling. AAPL has rallied about 1,000% over the last 10 years and we can sub-divide this nicely into the different sections we'd expect to see in Elliot wave and we also have the common news cycles and characteristics of the different waves. All syncing up nicely over a long period of...

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The 4 year cycle narrative would have it that the most volatile asset, that will drop over 70% the most times and then have the most explosive gains to the upside will also the one that is the most predictable and the most popular one for people to have all in exposure on. Which I consider optimistic. While getting ultra wealthy being long this accommodatingly...

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Let's look at the stages of the NVDA rally and match them with the Elliot wave forecast posted at 500. Below are notes from a post at the time with the pics inserted of the moves since then. (Please note - this analysis was done pre-split so we'll have to account for that. Overall persistent rally to 800 - 850. A choppy market and some sort of false...

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Follow up to the ETH bull trap post below. Since filling this we've acted much in line with the forecast of a classic uptrend failure. We made the 76 top and dropped to the 50. From the 50 we attempted to make a new high but failed again at the 76. 50 then was a bull trap fib to 61 and we had the 50 break. Now we may break the 38 fib leading to some...