holeyprofit

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There's a lot of speculation NVDA is overextended and, well I can see their point. But maybe through the last years we have had waves 1 and 2 of Elliot. Which would mean we're in wave 3 and in wave 3 "Overextended" does not really exist. A super consistent trend is what is the norm. Wave 3's are incredibly easy trends to follow but a lot of the time in wave 3...

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Hi, This isn't an analysis post. It's to talk about plans to try to make my strategies easier to follow/understand - for those interested in that. I've been largely offline for a few weeks. My best friend had been living with a terminal illness for a while. Over the month it became clear he didn't have much time left. I wanted to make the most of our time...

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Follow up to: The drop came in 5 waves and this may be the end of an ABC correction. We're into the 76 which is the classic bull trap level. This is the next good spot for a short attempt.

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I've been short indices recently but we're into major supports now. I have my stops trailed tight and some longs from a little under 5200. We possibly have a bearish Elliot setup here. If so, we have an implied strong bull trap and then we have a good short setup. Ideally the best play here is make a bit of money in the long and use it to bankroll the short...

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If the premise of a trend reversal is going to come to pass we need to see rejection of the attempt to trade at a new high. The breakout looks much more promising now but when you look at a lot of tops you find many of them have wicks slightly above the high. I believe these are referred to as "One tick traps" (I just call them stop hunts). If the breakout can...

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Today when US markets open I am planning on taking a large swing put position in NVDA with various deep OTM strikes. Here's the complete case for a NVDA top having been made and the start of a massive mean reversion. For a while I've had the 1,000 area marked out as an important level for NVDA. Not based on it being a psychological level (Tbh, I feel they...

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This post is to test a hypothesis we can break bubble moves down into five main stages and with these we can have a reasonable idea where we might be in that move. Here I've marked up the phases on Cocoa and I'll also show some others that have similar phases. Broadly understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out...

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Continuation of the previous COIN analysis. More bearish patterns have formed since the time of the previous analysis. We now have a head and shoulders pattern. Head and shoulders usually go to at least 1.61 extensions of the head. This is a bit under 180 in COIN, so I am buying puts for that strike.

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Parabolic rally recently in GME. Gained a lot of attention but, as of yet, it's not broken out of the simple downtrend structure. In setups like this there's always a 1:3 - 1:5 RR trade fading the rally into the 76 resistance (Caveat of gap risk in stocks). If the downtrend is to continue, this should be about the end of the rally.

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Around 4800 I said I thought if there's a spike out before a bear move it's likely to go to around 5200. We've traded a little over that, had a strong sell off from just above it and now we're retesting it. If the original thesis proves to be correct, 5200 area will be an important high and we'll see a stronger rejection on the retest. Here's an Elliot wave...

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I have somewhat a love/hate relationship with head and shoulders. Gotta love them for the epic and highly forecastable reversal trades they produce. However, they're low win rate. About 1/3 in work. Easy to get false signals on the others because the HS is such an obvious pattern. If this turns out to be one of the successful ones, a mighty dump in the DJI is...

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Been swing bearish on SPX for a while. With previous analysis I thought the stop hunt risk was to 5200 and then the bear trade would come. If this is right, we have a lot more downside to come. Potentially even taking out all of the 2023 rally. But one thing at a time. Next big support level would be 4725. Currently positioning with shorts and OTM puts with...

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In a previous post I drew attention to the large monthly engulfing candle on BTC and made the observation that historically this has 100% success rate in marking BTC highs. In this post I want to take a more technical look at the formation of this big candle. We have what may be the early formations of Elliot waves (Marked in the OP). With our drops coming in...

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I think it's possible we're going to see a big USD breakout. We certainly have near term trending action for now. While the trend remains valid, I am looking to buy all these 76 retracements and trail my stops under the developing structure.

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In a previous post I spoke about how ETH had filled classic bear trap zones and I was taking shorts. Since this time we've developed much like the forecast. The forecast was things I'd expect to see before a true strong reversal kicked in. We may be on the verge of this real reversal kicking in now. If this is a bull trap that contains itself inside of a 76...

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In a previous post I showed how the correlation of BTC up moves and the halving may be an illusion since it's simple to look at pretty much anything that's up trended over a 10 yr period, mark in the dates of the halving and they're about as accurate as the correlation with BTC. BTC has generally up trended over 10 years. To say an event is significant because...

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MSTR hit the previous target of 1000. Now shorting again into the bounce looking for sub 800. We have a head and shoulders, my default targeting method for this pattern is to target a 1.61 of the head. This has not yet hit, making it seem worth shorting the rip. This is also complimented by a break in BTC.

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Massive surge in the Yen at resistance and then a follow through drop. The likelihood of a strong reaction in the 160 was discussed in the post below: Question is, what happens now? If that's a true reversal then we're going to see crush and re-crush action in this. Consistently lower lows. Sharp rallies. Crushing new lows. However, if we make a low in...