holeyprofit

holeyprofit

Shorting BTC after what I think has been a big blow off rally after the FOMC.

holeyprofit

Other than it not ranging in the start of the week, which caught me out, SPX has acted in line with the previous swing forecast and now we're into the potential drop zone. We're rallying hard off good news, which is something I tend to like selling into also.

holeyprofit

It's scary, and surreal. I've watched this set up ever so slowly since 2018 when I first started to look for possible ending zones for a SPX rally. Now, we're here. Something big is due to happen. The US market is trading at a major inflection point. The most critical time in the US markets in at least the last 15 yrs - possibly in my lifetime. Good luck, SPX. ...

holeyprofit

BTC looks like it's convincingly broken the bull trap. Some sharp pullbacks in and these often build up into a capitulation period.

holeyprofit

I think we're soon going to head into the capitulation fall on BTC into around the 31K area. I already have a pending order at 31K and placing one at 25K for an overshoot. Both of the targets on these are 40K. From there I'd position short again. Expecting a strong sell off and then a dead-cat bounce.

holeyprofit

Adding to my USDCAD buy. Think this is likely the low. If we drop under 1,756 I'll hit trailing stops on my exiting buys.

holeyprofit

Clear and clean break made in BTC now. Into the capitulation swing. I think this is heading to 30K. See swing plan attached.

holeyprofit

SPX made a big bear break yesterday. Feeling much better about shorting now we've had a really vicious bull rally. I think this swing is heading under 4200.

holeyprofit

That previous support was not up to much. Exited my buys and back up to full short into the retest of 3325 and targeting 4150

holeyprofit Updated 

Exiting quite a lot of my shorts. Still holding swings. Think this drop is about done for now. Plan to short again into 4430. Will re-issue plans if buy is stopped out.

holeyprofit

Very strong day in the USD. Looks like we're setting up the breakout I've been talking about for a while now.

holeyprofit

Shorting SPX into the bounce. We've now seen the first real bear break in a full year. One year, no break - until today.

holeyprofit Updated 

Been shorting SPX pretty much every bounce for the run down but I think it's due to see a bit of a rally now and some ranging for a while. Going long because I think there's good probability of the butterfly holding here. Also helps to cover my put options accumulated through the week if we bounce and range for a while. See my overall trade plan for SPX in linked ideas.

holeyprofit

Here's an estimate of how I think a SPX break may be likely to form and the spots at which I am looking to trade into it. Phase 1 - Chop/whipsaw Will be cautious in the first days. I am going to be taking short positions into rallies with tight stops but I expect to see mostly a range with false moves to both sides early in the week. Phase 2 - A spike low...

holeyprofit Updated 

After the big drop on this it's sat in at the low for a while and made a double bottom. We may be in the ending part of wave 4 and due a parabolic rally up to / close to 600.

holeyprofit

As part of my ongoing accumulating of traders against cryptos and stocks with a lot of exposure to crypto, I am looking to add MSTR to my short portfolio. This has had its first bear break, correct and and I think it's soon due to make another move down. My first target will be the 161 extension.

holeyprofit

The confluence of matching points we have between the market of 1929 and our current market have gotten to be scarily similar over the last 5 - 10 years. For us to match the DJI of 1929 we'd need; A slow uptrend with regular pullbacks/crashes. A couple 50% crashes spaced a bit apart from each other. A breakout of the high of these crashes into a sheer...

holeyprofit

The confluence of matching points we have between the market of 1929 and our current market have gotten to be scarily similar over the last 5 - 10 years. For us to match the DJI of 1929 we'd need; A slow uptrend with regular pullbacks/crashes. A couple 50% crashes spaced a bit apart from each other. A breakout of the high of these crashes into a sheer...