matthias

matthias Updated  Feb 27

I am buying some NYSE:NLY , even though the stock is very overbought in the short term (see Money Flow Indicator at bottom of chart). I like the breakout through the dotted line connecting the highs from Oct 10 and Nov 17. After breaking through this morning the stock pulled back underneath the dotted line, but has now recaptured the high. I believe that the...

matthias Updated  Nov 26, 2024

I already own a bunch of MTCH, and to be honest, at higher prices. But I am adding to my position at this point for reasons that are both technical and fundamental. On the technical side, the stock has been strong over the past week, but is still in a declining 1-month trend. That said, both the upper edge of the regression trend and the lower end of the...

matthias Updated  Nov 25, 2024

VZ is again at the top of its one-month regression channel, having last tested it on Monday. I think there's a good chance that this new push will succeed. If so, it will quickly bring the post-earnings gap into play (red drop in the chart). A second, shallower gap is above. The Sep 30 high on the chart is also the YTD high, as the stock is near the top of a...

matthias Oct 8, 2024

This is simple: The Mosaic Company's HQ in Tampa, FL, its phosphate marine terminal, and all of its phosphate mines are in the projected path of Hurricane Milton. The phosphate business was about 1/3 of NYSE:MOS ' total 2023 revenue. Be ready!

matthias Oct 7, 2024

I am going long NSE:HAL via options for the following reasons: NYMEX:CL1! closed the week before last at the second lowest level of the year. The following week, i.e. last week, oil emphatically rejected these lows with a 10% gain, showing the highest weekly trading volume of the year. This move continued today with another 3.7% gain. I believe that...

matthias Updated  Oct 7, 2024

Sea, Inc. ( NYSE:SE ) has been a nice turnaround story so far this year. The company operates in three segments, which I'd summarize as follows: Shopee (73% or revenue, 25%-30% annual revenue growth) is a fast-growing ecommerce platform in SE Asia. In Q2, its EBITDA margin was just below zero, which represents three consecutive quarters of improvement, but...

matthias Sep 16, 2024

What I did: Long Oct 4 vertical 145/135 AMD put spread @ 2.06, as a swing trade. The rationale: NASDAQ:AMD seems to struggle with the 3-month VWMA (white line), while in the context of a declining 3-month and 1-month trend. Fundamentally, AMD competes with NASDAQ:INTC on CPUs and with NASDAQ:NVDA on graphics cards. Of the three, NVDA is the most profitable...

matthias Updated  Jul 1, 2024

I am starting a position on NYSE:NEP on three thoughts: The company should be able to resolve its financing issues. The stock pays a hefty dividend (14.6%) I expect the gently rising intermediate term trading channel to remain active, and the short-term, declining channel to get broken. Somewhat balancing this view is the concern that a significant...

matthias Updated  Apr 17, 2024

I think the chart tells the story: NYSE:MOS is trading at the lowest price to book multiple (see lower pane) since the pandemic, which was also the low point over the past 20 years. In addition, there's a buy signal from a AB=CD pattern visible on the chart. The symmetric triangle short play has in fact reached its T1 target and may be played out. In addition,...

matthias Updated  Apr 15, 2024

I've been a long-term bull on NASDAQ:WIRE for years, and it continues to be one of my largest positions. Fundamentally, there's nothing that changed my mind about the company. I've listed some of the reasons I like the company in this mind , and they're as valid now as they were last October. That said, I am thinking about reducing my position for a couple of...

matthias Updated  Apr 4, 2024

There's a nice symmetrical triangle setup for AFRM on the 15-minute chart, which should resolve in the coming week, and likely in explosive fashion. Adding extra spice to that is the yellow line that seems to head straight for the intersection of the declining (red) line connecting the recent highs and the ascending (green) line connecting the recent lows. What...

matthias Apr 4, 2024

There's a fair amount of risk, but I am willing to give a long a try. I like ENPH as a leader in solar technology, and I believe that there are years of growth ahead for that industry. After several years of consistently negative ROIC, things started to turn around for the company in 2019. Management telegraphed a difficult environment for 2024. So, I fully expect...

matthias Updated  Apr 4, 2024

I am giving this a try. The chart kinda says it all. I am looking for T1 to get reached, but will likely take it all off, if that happens. SL for me occurs on a break of the green line.

matthias Updated  Apr 1, 2024

I bought DAL today as a long-term buy. This is a violation of a restraining order I put on myself, given my lousy track record with airline stocks. Why go there, now? In bullet points: NYSE:LUV is getting smoked today, based on news that NYSE:BA will be unable to get anywhere close to its 2024 delivery commitments to LUV, thanks to the ongoing 737 MAX...

matthias Updated  Mar 12, 2024

UPDATE: The image I embedded in the TV chart for this idea was somehow rejected on the post. So I posted it on Imgur instead. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The chart I present for this idea doesn't look like a normal TradingView chart. The reason is that this is not a trade, based on chart technicals, but an investment, which I intend to hold for...

matthias Updated  Mar 6, 2024

I am interested in this big, yawning gap seen on the chart. This morning the stock generated very high interest (highest volume day YTD). But there was resistance from the Fib level, from the 200-day SMA, and from the prior high to overcome, and ultimately the stock failed to close above the Oct 17, 2023 high. Still, on an overall flat-to-down day the stock...

matthias Mar 6, 2024

I like NYSE:BMY here. I already own shares, but am adding a call spread. Obviously, I am chasing short-term a bit, which is not generally a good idea. In this case I am willing to take the risk because of the overhead gap in volume (it's not a true gap, of course), and the fact that the stock seems ready to break its long-term down trend. Fundamentally, I...

matthias Updated  Dec 20, 2023

NASDAQ:AAPL attempted a new multi-month high today, failed, and now dropped back below its intermediate trend support line. This is a short-term issue, but I am also bearish NASDAQ:AAPL on fundamentals (see here ). Based on that, I'll give this idea some extra time and room: I am long the Dec 29 190/180 put spread. Current price is $1.91.