BTCUSD: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses

Part 10: It's time to talk about the bear cross that was confirmed yesterday, the 50 Day MA crossing the 200 Day MA. 3 out of 4 of Bitcoin's bear crosses have been bearish long-term indicating a further 50% drop in price (2012, 2014 and 2018). In the shorter-term, Bitcoin also twice rallied by 50% in two of these occasions (2014 and 2015) before continuing higher or falling back down. Only 1 out of 4 of these cases it came at the end of the bear market, in 2015. Here are the current statistics and visual representation of the bear crosses: 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018.

Extrapolating these bear crosses to the current bear cross suggests the following:

• 75% probability of reaching the descending triangle breakdown target of $6,410
  
• 75% probability of dropping a further 50% before the block halving
  
• 50% probability of rallying further to $12,000 by the end of October
  
• 50% probability of double bottom at $3,200, specifically in July 2020
  
• 25% probability of breaking above $9,410 and never coming back down.
  

If Bitcoin Repeats History?

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018

Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown

Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low

Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown

Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1

Part 7: Another Bearish Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross

Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?

Comment:

Correction: 2012 bear cross is actually 2011, but same difference.