EXPLAINED: Odd Lot Offer EasilyWHAT IS AN ODD LOT OFFER?
An odd-lot offer is a financial transaction.
It is where a company offers to buy back small quantities of its shares from shareholders who hold fewer shares than the typical trading unit.
Usually it’s under 100 shares.
In the context of stock markets, an “odd lot” refers to a number of shares that is less than the standard trading lot.
Here are the key points about an odd-lot offer:
Target Audience:
Aimed at shareholders who own fewer shares than the standard trading unit (commonly 100 shares).
Purpose:
Typically initiated by a company to reduce the number of small shareholders and simplify its shareholder structure.
Offer Terms:
The company specifies an offer price at which it is willing to buy back the odd lots of shares. This price may be at a premium to the current market price.
Voluntary Participation:
Shareholders are not obligated to participate; it’s a voluntary decision on their part.
Cost Reduction:
Companies may implement odd-lot offers to reduce administrative costs associated with managing a large number of small shareholders.
Shareholder Choice:
Odd-lot shareholders can decide whether to sell their shares to the company at the offered price or to retain their shares.
Tax Implications:
Companies may structure odd-lot offers in a way that has specific tax implications for shareholders. It’s common for the offer to be treated as a return of capital rather than a dividend.
Approval Process:
In many cases, such offers require approval from the company’s shareholders, often obtained at a general meeting.
Let’s use an example with City Lodge in 2023.
1. What’s Going On:
As of October 16, 2023, there were a bunch of small-scale shareholders in City Lodge, each holding fewer than 100 shares.
These investrs are referred to as “Odd-lot Holders,” which make up 58.22% of all City Lodge shareholders.
However, when you look at the total shares they own, it’s just a tiny 0.06% of the market.
Now, managing these tiny portions costs a lot, creating a headache for everyone.
2. The solution
To solve this issue, at City Lodge’s board of directors are suggesting an Odd-lot Offer.
This means they want to buy back the small amounts of shares from these Odd-lot Holders, making life simpler for everyone involved.
3. So what do these Odd-lot holders get?
If you’re one of these Odd-lot Holders, you get a chance to cash at a price that’s 5% more than the average value of City Lodge shares over the past 30 days.
It’s like a special deal, and you won’t have to pay any fees to make the transaction.
4. How it works
To make this happen, City Lodge needs approval from its shareholders.
They discussed it at the Annual General Meeting on November 23, 2023.
If the plan gets a green light, Odd-lot Holders can decide to sell their shares at the offered price or keep them.
5. The tax story
They considered the Odd-lot Offer isn’t a dividend but more like a return of capital.
This decision has some tax implications, so they suggest you chat with your tax expert for the details.
City Lodge wants to simplify its shareholder list, and if you’re an Odd-lot Holder, you have a choice to make – take the deal or keep riding the City Lodge wave.
Does that help and did it help you?
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Unveiling the Power of Supply and Demand Zones in Forex Trading
Unveiling the Power of Supply and Demand Zones in Forex Trading 📈💹
✅ Introduction
=================
In the realm of forex trading, the concept of supply and demand zones holds immense significance as it plays a crucial role in identifying potential market turning points and areas of strong price momentum. Understanding how to pinpoint and interpret these zones can provide traders with valuable insight into market dynamics and facilitate more informed trading decisions. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of identifying supply and demand zones in forex and explore strategies for using them effectively.
Check this massive demand zone that I spotted on Gold on a daily.
✅ Identifying Supply and Demand Zones
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Supply zones are areas on a price chart where selling interest exceeds buying interest, leading to a potential downward price movement. On the other hand, demand zones represent areas where buying interest surpasses selling interest, signaling a potential upward price movement. Traders can identify these zones by looking for clusters of price action indicating significant changes in supply and demand dynamics.
Example: A supply zone may be identified as a consolidation area following a downtrend, where price repeatedly fails to break above a certain level, suggesting strong selling pressure.
Example: A demand zone might be found as a support level where price experiences a strong bounce following a downtrend, indicating strong buying interest.
Here is a very significant supply zone on EURGBP.
✅ Trading Strategies Using Supply and Demand Zones
=====================================================
1. Zone Confirmation: Traders can use supply and demand zones as areas of interest for potential trade entries and exits. When the price revisits a previously identified supply or demand zone, traders can look for additional confirmation signals, such as candlestick patterns or confluence with other technical indicators, before entering a trade.
Example: A trader identifies a strong demand zone and waits for a bullish engulfing pattern or a piercing pattern as confirmation before entering a long trade.
2. Zone Breakouts: Breakouts from supply and demand zones can signal strong shifts in market sentiment and potential trend reversals. Traders can monitor these zones for potential breakout opportunities and use them as entry points for trades in the direction of the breakout.
Example: A trader identifies a supply zone and waits for a break below the zone as confirmation to enter a short trade, expecting further downward movement.
Check my supply and demand zones analysis for EURJPY.
✅ Conclusion
================
In conclusion, understanding how to identify and interpret supply and demand zones in forex trading can significantly enhance a trader's ability to analyze price movements and make informed trading decisions. By incorporating supply and demand zones into their analysis, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and potential areas of price reversal or continuation.
Traders can utilize the strategies outlined in this article to effectively integrate supply and demand zones into their trading approach, leading to improved trade timing and potentially more profitable outcomes. Mastering the art of identifying and trading based on supply and demand zones is a valuable skill that can provide traders with a competitive edge in the dynamic world of forex trading. Good luck and happy trading! 📊💰
Alternative Data is a revolution. More important than AI! p.2/2Evaluating stocks
There are now several companies that estimate oil inventories and fuel production volumes. They analyze how much crude is in tanks (by measuring the shadow cast by the tank) and how much fuel is on the way (tankers, ship manifests) and in tanks on sidings.
With satellite imagery, analysts can also estimate aluminium inventories at key depots.
And soon, we will be able to go a step further - we will be able to predict inventories, their consumption and product demand very precisely. These predictions will be made possible by mapping supply chains. Of course, the biggest and the wealthiest companies with their equally impressive teams will be able to do this. Snippets of this information are already available (by subscription) from many companies specializing in commodity analysis.
Analysis of non-obvious sources of risk
Machine analysis of sector networks can be an exciting source of early information about sources of risk that we are unaware of.
The problems of one company or group, at first sight entirely unrelated to our positions, can have a negative impact on them. An analysis of past correlations in the sector may show this.
Our positions (which we may not be aware of) may be correlated with some events, keywords and topics that Machine Learning analysis systems may track.
Conversely, positive news about another industry can cause capital to flow out of sectors in which we have positions.
Capital seeks better opportunities and returns encumbered with less risk, so stock prices can fall even if everything is "fine" with our industry. These falls are caused by prospects competing with each other. The major funds are now building tools to track this sentiment and the capital flows that follow. Such signals provide a broader understanding of the market.
Collected opinions can be an interesting bias indicator (social media and news sentiment)
The online sentiment is the opinions expressed online (news stories, blogs, FB and Twitter posts).
Sentiment can be positive or negative and is best thought of as a continuum that we can visualize with a line.
Sentiment evolves; sometimes, it can precede market changes or changes in indicators.
Sentiment can be good at predicting changes before they occur. Such was the case, for example, with sentiment around oil in 2017. Positive opinions in April began to turn negative, followed by declines.
As expressed by analysts and professionals, sentiment is an interesting indicator that shouldn't necessarily be used directly but can be a signal that something is worth closer examination.
When a well-diversified portfolio turns out to be highly correlated
There is a particular class of events that strongly influence price movements. These are "black swan" events - where entire sectors and entire markets enter into deep declines. An example is a recent decline due to pandemics.
Similar events can also occur on a smaller scale. For example, we can have a very well-diversified portfolio that, under the influence of circumstances, suddenly behaves in a highly correlated way. These occurrences are usually the result of events that trigger strong panic moves.
Analyzing the environment of sectors, companies, or currencies can allow us to catch such events and take into account the unexpected behaviour of the portfolio.
The tone of the message and company documents used in risk assessment
One fund looks at the tone of the messages coming from the company. The tone can be positive, negative, or neutral and can contain interesting anomalies (an example: attempt to hide something).
It has been noted that readability and clarity of communications are correlated with better performance.
The tone is not a signal in itself but gives valuable context. For example, suppose the company's performance is acceptable. In that case, a positive tone can suggest that it will continue to be a bad tone - that something is wrong and traders need to be more careful.
For example, contextual data only becomes valuable with a tone. They can extend a position, and they can also reduce risk. It is worth taking an interest in which contextual data will help you in trading.
Analyzing the number and type of patent applications allows you to assess a company's future potential
Such analyses are not yet routine, but many funds are already conducting them. Analyzing the number of patent applications and their type can provide valuable information about a company's profit potential in the future.
The fact becomes evident if you think you have two very similar companies. One has a hundred patents, and the other has zero. Both operate in a field where innovation is critical. What impact might the patent structure have on the bottom line 3-5 years from now?
Data on the number of scientific publications in a company can have a similar impact, an interesting indicator of possible future profits.
Geopolitical risk analysis in sensitive regions
According to a prepared key, the system filters information from the media in local languages. It selects information that may indicate increasing tension in the region and possible crises.
The analyst does not even need to understand the language, such as Farsi used in Iran, to read a message on a scale (e.g., 1 to 10) and gather that something is wrong and the tensions are very high.
For those investing in oil, this can be of paramount importance. Consider the abrupt jump in price after the drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq-Khurais refinery (Sept. 14, 2019)
This event was impossible to predict, but the information about rising tensions was available a few days earlier. We now know that such information can be used.
It does not mean the rising tensions should result in an exit from the position. However, this certainly requires a sensible action plan in case the black scenario comes true.
An analysis of company documents in combination with a study for the needs of regulators shows whether a company is stretching reality in the ESG area
Companies are beginning to see that the news of them implementing responsible business (ESG) policies positively impacts their image and usually boosts share price. But some companies only talk and do little.
One major fund analyzes company behaviour by comparing publicly reported data with documents sent to regulators. As a result, it avoids the stocks of those companies where there are significant discrepancies in these areas.
This fund is gearing up for a massive, systemic shift in its approach to investing and sees ESG as the future with the highest returns.
For thematic portfolios - a source of knowledge about the sentiment that can have an impact
Many funds build a thematic portfolio by investing in companies in a similar industry or sector. Such thematic portfolios are sensitive to sentiment related to a particular topic.
By studying web search trends around keywords, one can get an idea of changes, increases or decreases in popularity.
Also, the popularity of other searches can be a clue - capital interested in companies in one industry may flow away to something that offers better opportunities, despite positive sentiment around "our" topic.
Company employment data
The arrival or departure of key people can be a reasonably obvious signal about a company's situation. Growing companies hire, troubled companies lay off.
Knowing whom a company is looking for and whom it is laying off is interesting contextual information. It can even be a stand-alone signal in exceptional cases.
Summary
Alternative data helps you learn what makes up a signal, assisting traders in understanding which signals are better and weaker and why.
Signals are of higher precision, which in turn reduces the risk. Contextual information coming from the environment also reduces risk. Analysing the sentiment in the environment allows you to improve your signal returns: extend your position or exit earlier.
ADs themselves can also be a source of high-quality signals, a prelude to taking a closer interest in a company (currency, commodity) or abandoning an idea.
Anomaly-spotting tools allow us to quickly spot suspicious companies that are 'cooking the books' or misrepresenting their compliance with new policies or laws.
AD is on the rise, but only a small percentage is exploitable.
ADs are the foundation for the next revolution that is fast approaching. Artificial Intelligence will take full advantage of them, to an extent and with a speed that will leave today's traders and investors far behind. But all is not lost. The markets will change, but also new opportunities and new regularities will emerge. We will devote many articles to them in the future.
A few words on the evolution of alternative data in trading
What we see now is the beginning of a revolution. The amount of data will only increase. The scope of their use in trading will grow.
"Alternative" data will improve signal quality, extend or shorten a position, provide contextual information, reduce position and portfolio risk.
The revolution we are witnessing today is as important, if not more important, than the AI revolution. If someone does not take part in this race - they will systematically lose positions in the market.
If someone does not join the race to use alternative data - they will systematically lose market positions.
Think of your trading (single instrument or entire portfolio) as a decision-making process that takes you through from analysis to signal, position management and post-trade analysis. Identify the main steps in this process.
Think about what data would help you at each step of your decision-making process? What will improve your understanding of the situation around the instrument? What will better show the context?
What will improve the signal? What will help filter out weaker companies, currencies? What will show the elements of the situation that matter when you are in a position? What data can prolong the position? What news can shorten a position?
Post-trade analysis: what else worked, what did you not take into account? What data would still be worth having? Is it financially viable? Can you have data for half a million for a few thousand, perhaps?
Try to support your decision-making process at multiple important points using different types of data. This type of thinking will prevail in the future (in my opinion), and doing so will give you an advantage. Traditional portfolio managers focus too much on one type of data and one type of tool.
Think about what data will show the agility of a company at multiple points? I am referring to production, management, recruiting new people. What factors will allow evaluating the innovativeness of the company? What data will show interest in the company's products? For example, what are the trends among major customer groups? Do you know what the main groups that buy the company's products are?
What are the main groups of customers who buy the company's stock? What are the trends in their sentiment? Where do you get such data? Are you able to estimate them somehow? One effective way of estimating is to build yourself a network of contacts (conferences, networking, social gatherings) among the key customers of the companies and ask their opinion from time to time. It still works today and will be irreplaceable for a long time to come.
An exciting piece of information is the development plans of some large customer who orders many products from "our" company and is considering increasing orders. Think what can indicate such activity? What data can show it?
When thinking about sentiment analysis, think about sentiment trend analysis: whether it is increasing or decreasing, which is also valuable information. Try to find the sentiment trend and ask yourself what makes it rise or fall. Sentiment data will be used for that very purpose.
A separate topic is the new risk analysis, focusing on the sources within the company itself and in its environment. Again, alternative data will help us a lot in this. It is a topic on which tomes can be written today, and many will be written as new data becomes available.
When thinking about data, don't just think about one type; it can be confusing. You can estimate the same process in many ways, look for it and look for reliable yet cheap sources. Think about duplicating important data, look at a process through the prism of many different data; the best ones do that. This way, you reduce risk.
Over time, analyzing and forecasting the positions of major investor groups will become an additional interesting tool.
In short, the fight over the next few years will be for better instrument selection (e.g., companies). Over time it will shift to a battle for earlier entry and better signal utilization among the top companies. I will be following this evolution closely.
Evolution and dynamics are the keywords in the future. We are used to the fact that, for example, companies' data is given every quarter, and for this time, it is a static result.
Meanwhile, it is just a photograph of a more complex, dynamic process. It's like photographing children running - the photo itself is a picture of a very dynamic process. A lot is going on in and around the companies themselves. The world is speeding up; children are not only running but running faster and faster.
Today we are moving from static black and white photography to a colourful, dynamic film shot in 4k technology. In it, we have shots from the front, from the side and drones above. And once we get used to this new image, we never go back to the old one.
Our next article on alternative data will feature tips on getting the most out of AD and what strategy to adopt in the fund.
Give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment so we know to publish more for you. Cheers!
Follow: www.tradingview.com
Mastering Trend Analysis in Crypto Trading: Tutorial !Unveiling the Art of Trend Analysis in Bitcoin Trading
Welcome to a comprehensive guide that will empower you with the skills to master trend analysis in Bitcoin trading. In this extensive tutorial, we'll explore every nuance of identifying trendlines, understanding structural points, and navigating the complexities of different market scenarios. Illustrated with practical examples and annotated charts, you'll gain insights into distinguishing between ranging markets and trending channels, and how significant breakouts and confirmations signal trend changes.
Deciphering Trendlines and Structural Points
1.1 Defining Trendlines:
Delve into the essence of trendlines and their crucial role in technical analysis.
Understand the significance of structural points: higher lows, higher highs, lower highs, and lower lows.
1.2 Identifying Trends in Bitcoin:
Analyze Bitcoin price charts to identify structural points that signify the emergence of upward or downward trends.
Explore examples of higher highs and higher lows in bullish trends and lower highs and lower lows in bearish trends.
Ranging Markets - When Trading Takes a Pause
2.1 Recognizing Ranging Conditions:
Differentiate between trending and ranging markets, highlighting the characteristics of sideways price action.
Emphasize the challenges and importance of patience during range-bound periods.
2.2 Analyzing Range-Bound Bitcoin:
Illustrate Bitcoin charts during ranging conditions, showcasing the absence of defined higher highs or lower lows.
Discuss strategies for navigating range-bound markets and waiting for clear trend signals.
Section 3: Trading Channels - Dynamic Play of Bulls and Bears
3.1 Understanding Channel Dynamics:
Introduce channels as a distinct form of trending, encompassing upward (ascending) and downward (descending) trends.
Explore how channels create dynamic opportunities for traders.
3.2 Decoding Channel Breakouts:
Explore Bitcoin charts in ascending and descending channels, emphasizing the significance of breakout points.
Discuss how trend changes are confirmed only after a sustained breakout and closure beyond a trendline.
Section 4: Putting Knowledge into Action - Real-Life Examples
4.1 Example 1: Trading Higher Highs in a Bullish Trend:
Dive into a specific Bitcoin chart showcasing a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows.
Discuss potential trading strategies aligned with the bullish trend structure.
4.2 Example 2: Navigating Lower Lows in a Bearish Downtrend:
Analyze a bearish trend scenario with lower highs and lower lows, emphasizing risk management strategies.
Discuss the psychological aspects of trading during downtrends.
4.3 Example 3: Channel Trading and Spotting Breakouts:
Examine a Bitcoin chart illustrating a channel, showcasing the dynamics of trading within the channel.
Discuss breakout scenarios and how to discern a genuine trend reversal.
Conclusion: Mastering the Art and Science of Bitcoin Trend Analysis
As you conclude this comprehensive journey through Bitcoin trend analysis, remember that expertise in this domain is a continual process. Regularly reassess your technical skills, stay attuned to market dynamics, and apply these principles with flexibility. Whether you're navigating ranging markets or identifying breakout points within channels, understanding trendlines is your compass in the vast landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
💡 Building a Solid Foundation | 📈 Trendlines Unveiled | 🔄 Navigating Ranges | 🚀 Channel Breakouts Decoded
💬 Join the conversation: Share your experiences in trend analysis, ask questions, and connect with a community dedicated to honing their Bitcoin trading skills. 🌐✨
Trading Nasdaq Futures: Correlation Insights & Market StrategiesIntroduction
The realm of futures trading offers a spectrum of opportunities, and at the forefront of this dynamic market are the E-mini Nasdaq Futures. Designed to track the Nasdaq 100 index, these futures contracts have become a favorite among traders who focus on technology and growth-oriented companies. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by technology giants, serves as a barometer for the broader tech sector and offers insights into the health of the US economy.
Basic Product Specifications
Point Value: Each point of the E-mini Nasdaq Futures is worth $20.00, making them an accessible yet potent instrument for both individual and institutional traders.
Trading Hours: Reflecting the global nature of the financial markets, these futures trade nearly 24 hours a day, from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon (US times), ensuring that traders across time zones can participate in market movements.
Current Margin Requirements: As of the latest update, the initial margin requirement for one E-mini Nasdaq Futures contract is approximately $9,000, subject to change based on market volatility. The maintenance margin is slightly lower, ensuring traders have some leeway in managing their positions.
Micro E-mini contracts available: 10x smaller than the E-minis.
Market Context and Economic Events
In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, several macroeconomic events cast a significant impact on the futures market. For traders of E-mini Nasdaq Futures, staying abreast of these events is crucial. Key among them is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, a regular event that can sway market sentiments and cause significant price movements. The announcements regarding interest rates and economic outlook made during these meetings are pivotal in shaping market trends.
Similarly, the release of labor market reports, including unemployment rates and job creation numbers, provides critical insights into the economic health of the country. These reports can trigger volatility in the E-mini Nasdaq Futures, presenting both risks and opportunities for traders. Understanding and anticipating the potential market reactions to these events is an integral part of a successful trading strategy.
Correlation Analysis and Trading Opportunities
A cornerstone of strategic futures trading lies in understanding the relationships between different financial instruments. Our recent analysis highlights the intriguing correlation dynamics of E-mini Nasdaq Futures with other key markets. While E-mini Nasdaq Futures often move in tandem with major indices like the Mini Dow Jones and E-mini S&P 500, they occasionally exhibit negative correlations with markets such as Gold, Euro Futures, Bitcoin, and Light Crude Oil.
Insights from Correlation Analysis:
Gold: Traditionally viewed as a safe haven, Gold often moves inversely to risk assets like Nasdaq Futures. In periods of market uncertainty or economic downturns, investors might flock to Gold, driving its prices up, while tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq could see a decline.
Euro and Bitcoin Futures: The relationship between Euro/Bitcoin Futures and Nasdaq Futures is nuanced, often influenced by broader economic policies and shifts in global trade dynamics and or monetary policy affecting the US Dollar.
Light Crude Oil: Fluctuations in oil prices can have a multifaceted impact on stock markets, including the Nasdaq. Rising oil prices, signaling higher energy costs, can negatively affect the performance of tech companies, leading to an inverse relationship.
Strategic Trading Approaches : Identifying bearish setups in Gold, Euro Futures, Bitcoin, and Light Crude Oil can be a precursor to bullish opportunities in E-mini Nasdaq Futures. For instance, a downturn in Gold amid rising economic optimism can signal an opportune moment to go long on Nasdaq Futures. Similarly, bearish trends in Euro/Bitcoin Futures and Light Crude Oil, perhaps due to geopolitical tensions or shifts in global demand, can also point towards potential gains in the Nasdaq market.
The below chart, where various correlations have been computed by aggregating daily data since 2018, shows a negative correlation between Euro Futures and Nasdaq Futures. Such inverse correlation will be used in the following section as a key element to plan on a long Nasdaq Futures trade.
Technical Analysis: Decoding Market Trends
Technical analysis forms the backbone of trading strategy formulation, especially in the volatile world of futures trading. For E-mini Nasdaq Futures, two key technical indicators – the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – provide valuable insights into market momentum and potential trend reversals.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. It consists of the MACD line (the difference between the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages), the signal line (a 9-day EMA of the MACD line), and the histogram (which illustrates the distance between the MACD line and the signal line).
Having both MACD lines above the zero line can be seen as bullish as it could be interpreted as an up-trending market and could indicate a potential upward price momentum, signaling traders to consider a long position. Conversely, having both MACD lines below the zero line might suggest a selling or shorting opportunity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, oscillating between zero and 100. Typically, an RSI above 70 indicates a security is overbought, while an RSI below 30 suggests it is oversold.
For traders of E-mini Nasdaq Futures, an RSI reading near 70 could warn of a potential market pullback, suggesting a cautious approach or a potential short position. An RSI near 30, however, might indicate an upcoming price rise, presenting a buying opportunity.
Practical Application : Incorporating these indicators into the analysis of E-mini Nasdaq Futures allows traders to make more informed decisions. By monitoring the MACD lines and RSI levels, traders can gauge the market's pulse, identifying key entry and exit points that align with their risk-reward parameters.
Trade Rationale :
The Nasdaq Futures daily timeframe presents us with an up-trend (based on MACD), but caution may be advisable for long traders since RSI values are near 70. Given the fact that UFOs (UnFilled Orders) are available below price, patient traders may be interested in waiting for a retracement into such lower prices before planning on a buy opportunity.
Such trade may receive “extra” help from the negatively correlated Euro Futures contract which recently switched from an up-trend to a down-trending environment as seen above.
Trade Plan: Strategic Execution
Developing a well-thought-out trade plan is essential for capitalizing on the opportunities presented by E-mini Nasdaq Futures. Given the insights from our correlation and technical analysis, here’s a strategic approach for trading:
1. Identifying Entry Points:
Utilizing bearish setups in negatively correlated markets (Euro Futures) as indicators for potential bullish momentum in E-mini Nasdaq Futures.
While both MACD lines remain above the zero line and RSI readings remain below 70, look for potential bullish price reactions between 17076.50 and 16316.00, which is where our technical analysis suggests Buy UnFilled Orders (UFOs) may be available.
2. Setting Target Prices:
Determining realistic target prices based on historical price movements and resistance levels observed in the Nasdaq Futures market.
Since the Nasdaq Futures is in a position to potentially start making new all-times high prices, a target could be set using a Fibonacci projection pointing at 18527.00.
3. Establishing Stop-Loss Levels:
Placing stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. These should be set at levels where the initial trade hypothesis is invalidated, such as below 16316.00, which is where UnFilled Orders would be proven to not to be available.
4. Calculating Reward-to-Risk Ratio:
Ensuring that the potential reward justifies the risk taken. A healthy reward-to-risk ratio, such as 2:1 or higher, is typically desirable.
5. Point Values and Contract Specifications:
For E-mini Nasdaq Futures, understanding that each point movement represents a $20 change per contract. This knowledge is crucial in calculating potential profits and losses.
Considering Micro contract options for traders with smaller account sizes or those seeking to manage risk more conservatively. The point value would be $2 in such case.
Practical Considerations : In implementing this trade plan, continuous market monitoring and readiness to adjust strategies in response to changing market conditions are paramount. The plan aims to maximize profits while strictly managing risks, aligning with individual trading styles and risk tolerances.
Risk Management: Safeguarding Investments
Effective risk management is the cornerstone of successful trading, particularly in the dynamic environment of E-mini Nasdaq Futures. Implementing robust risk management strategies not only protects investments but also enhances trading performance.
1. Utilizing Stop-Loss Orders:
Stop-loss orders are essential in limiting potential losses. They should be set at levels where the initial trade hypothesis is invalidated.
These orders help in managing trades without emotional biases, ensuring decisions are based on pre-set risk parameters.
2. Hedging Techniques:
Hedging strategies, such as using options or diversifying with inversely correlated assets, can provide a safety net against adverse market movements.
For instance, while correlations are not a guarantee, holding positions in Gold or WTI Crude Oil Futures could serve as a hedge against a downturn in the E-mini Nasdaq Futures.
3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
It is crucial to avoid situations where the potential loss is unknown or unlimited. This can be achieved by using defined-risk strategies and avoiding high-leverage positions that can amplify losses.
Traders should be aware of the leverage inherent in futures contracts and adjust their position sizes accordingly.
4. Adapting to Market Conditions:
A flexible approach to risk management is key. This involves regularly reviewing and adjusting stop-loss levels and hedging positions in response to changing market dynamics.
Staying informed about economic events and market trends is vital in making timely adjustments to risk management strategies, including a potential for a trade to be invalidated and cancelled altogether.
Conclusion
In the intricate tapestry of financial markets, trading E-mini Nasdaq Futures presents both challenges and opportunities. This article has navigated through the complex correlations between Nasdaq Futures and other key financial instruments, uncovering strategies to capitalize on these relationships. The integration of technical analysis, focusing on MACD and RSI indicators, further enriches the trader's arsenal, providing a deeper understanding of market trends and potential entry and exit points.
As we've explored, the negative correlations with markets such as Gold Futures, Euro Futures, or WTI Crude Oil, can signal opportune moments to go long on Nasdaq Futures. Conversely, these markets can offer hedging opportunities against potential downturns in Nasdaq. The strategic execution of trades, underpinned by solid risk management practices, forms the bedrock of successful trading in this dynamic environment.
In conclusion, trading E-mini Nasdaq Futures demands a multifaceted approach, blending correlation insights, technical analysis, and stringent risk management. By staying informed, adaptable, and disciplined, traders can navigate the ebb and flow of the Nasdaq Futures market with increased confidence and potential for success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Open Interest - Deciphering Bitcoin's Market SentimentIn the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading, Bitcoin often serves as a beacon, reflecting broader market sentiment through its dynamic price movements and trading metrics. Today, let's explore the intricacies of Bitcoin's market dynamics by dissecting Open Interest (OI), funding rates, liquidations, and long/short ratios—using current data as our live case study.
What do we see? (follow the steps)
1) Price action . Essential to understand it before the usage of any indicator.
2) Open Interest , the total number of outstanding derivative contracts like futures and options, provides a window into market activity. An increase in OI alongside a rising BTC price suggests new money might be entering, potentially signalling bullish sentiment. Conversely, decreasing OI during price drops might indicate a bearish outlook. Currently, we observe a slight uptick in OI as BTC recovers from a dip, hinting at growing confidence among traders.
3) The funding rate , specific to perpetual contracts, reflects periodic payments between longs and shorts. A positive rate, where longs pay shorts, suggests a bullish consensus, as it's costlier to maintain long positions. Presently, BTC's slightly positive funding rate aligns with its uptrend, indicating that traders might be anticipating further price increases.
4) Liquidations occur when a trader's position is closed by the exchange due to a margin call. A cluster of liquidations often follows a sharp price movement, as we've recently seen with BTC. These liquidation spikes could suggest that overleveraged positions have been flushed out, which can sometimes signal a local price bottom and a potential reversal point, paving the way for a more sustained upward trend.
5) The ratio of long to short positions tells us about the prevailing market bias. A ratio significantly above 50 indicates a bullish majority, which is currently the case with BTC. This higher long/short ratio could be interpreted as a market leaning towards optimism.
As always, I hope you found this insightful and have a lovely Sunday! ;)
CHOCH vs BOS ‼️WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market structure bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish / bearish market structure we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market structure we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the structure this is the BOS.
BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
WHAT IS CHOCH?
CHOCH - change of character. Also known as reversal, when the price fails to make a new higher high or lower low, then the price broke the structure and continue in other direction.
What is Confluence❓✅ Confluence refers to any circumstance where you see multiple trade signals lining up on your charts and telling you to take a trade. Usually these are technical indicators, though sometimes they may be price patterns. It all depends on what you use to plan your trades. A lot of traders fill their charts with dozens of indicators for this reason. They want to find confluence — but oftentimes the result is conflicting signals. This can cause a lapse of confidence and a great deal of confusion. Some traders add more and more signals the less confident they get, and continue to make the problem worse for themselves.
✅ Confluence is very important to increase the chances of winning trades, a trader needs to have at least two factors of confluence to open a trade. When the confluence exists, the trader becomes more confident on his negotiations.
✅ The Factors Of Confluence Are:
Higher Time Frame Analysis;
Trade during London Open;
Trade during New York Open;
Refine Higher Time Frame key levels in Lower
Time Frame entries;
Combine setups;
Trade during High Impact News Events.
✅ Refine HTF key levels in LTF entries or setups for confirmation that the HTF analysis will hold the price.
HTF Key Levels Are:
HTF Order Blocks;
HTF Liquidity Pools;
HTF Market Structure.
Market Structure Identification ✅Hello traders!
I want to share with you some educational content.
✅ MARKET STRUCTURE .
Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Structure
Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual structure
Trading Converging Chart PatternsWe discussed identification and classification of different chart patterns and chart pattern extensions in our previous posts.
Algorithmic Identification of Chart Patterns
Flag and Pennant Chart Patterns
In this installment, we shift our focus towards the practical trading strategies applicable to a select group of these patterns. Acknowledging that a universal trading rule cannot apply to all patterns, we narrow our examination to those of the converging variety.
We will specifically address the following converging patterns:
Rising Wedge (Converging Type)
Falling Wedge (Converging Type)
Converging Triangle
Rising Triangle (Converging Type)
Falling Triangle (Converging Type)
This selection will guide our discussion on how to approach these patterns from a trading perspective.
🎲 Historical Bias and General Perception
Each pattern we've discussed carries a historical sentiment that is widely regarded as a guideline for trading. Before we delve into our specific trading strategies, it's crucial to understand these historical sentiments and the general market interpretations associated with them.
🟡 The Dynamics of Contracting Wedge Patterns
Contracting Wedge patterns are typically indicative of the Elliott Wave Structure's diagonal waves, potentially marking either the beginning or conclusion of these waves. A contracting wedge within a leading diagonal may experience a brief retracement before the trend resumes. Conversely, if found in an ending diagonal, it could signal the termination of wave 5 or C, possibly hinting at a significant trend reversal.
The prevailing view suggests that these patterns usually precede a short-term directional shift: Rising Wedges are seen as bearish signals, while Falling Wedges are interpreted as bullish. It's essential to consider the trend prior to the formation of these patterns, as it significantly aids in determining their context within the Elliott Wave cycles, specifically identifying them as part of waves 1, A, 5, or C.
For an in-depth exploration, refer to our detailed analysis in Decoding Wedge Patterns
🎯 Rising Wedge (Converging Type)
The Rising Wedge pattern, historically viewed with a bearish bias, suggests that a downward trend is more likely upon a breakout below its lower trend line. This perception positions the pattern as a signal for traders to consider bearish positions once the price breaks through this critical support.
🎯 Falling Wedge (Converging Type)
The Falling Wedge pattern is traditionally seen through a bullish lens, indicating potential upward momentum when the price surpasses its upper trend line. This established viewpoint suggests initiating long positions as a strategic response to such a breakout, aligning with the pattern's optimistic forecast.
🟡 Contracting Triangle Patterns
Contracting Triangles, encompassing Converging, Ascending, and Descending Triangles, are particularly noteworthy when they appear as part of the Elliott Wave's B or 2 waves. These patterns typically signal a continuation of the pre-existing trend that preceded the triangle's formation. This principle also underpins the Pennant Pattern, which emerges following an impulse wave, indicating a pause before the trend's resumption.
🎲 Alternate Way of Looking into Converging Patterns
Main issue with historical perception are:
There is no clear back testing data to prove whether the general perception is correct or more profitable.
Elliott Waves concepts are very much subjective and can be often difficult for beginners and misleading even for experts.
So, the alternative way is to treat all the converging patterns equally and devise a method to trade using a universal way. This allows us to back test our thesis and be definitive about the profitability of these patterns.
Here are our simple steps to devise and test a converging pattern based strategy.
Consider all converging patterns as bidirectional. Meaning, they can be traded on either side. Thus chose to trade based on the breakout. If the price beaks up, then trade long and if the price breaks down, then trade short.
For each direction, define criteria for entry, stop, target prices and also an invalidation price at which the trade is ignored even without entry.
Backtest and Forward test the strategy and collect data with respect to win ratio, risk reward and profit factor to understand the profitability of patterns and the methodology.
Now, let's break it further down.
🟡 Defining The Pattern Trade Conditions
Measure the ending distance between the trend line pairs and set breakout points above and beyond the convergence zone.
🎯 Entry Points - These can be formed on either side of the convergence zone. Adding a small buffer on top of the convergence zone is ideal for setting the entry points of converging patterns.
Formula for Entry can be:
Long Entry Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Entry Ratio
Short Entry Price = Bottom - (Top-Bottom) X Entry Ratio
Whereas Top refers to the upper side of the convergence zone and bottom refers to the lower side of the convergence zone. Entry Ratio is the buffer ratio to apply on top of the convergence zone to get entry points.
🎯 Stop Price - Long entry can act as stop for short orders and the short entry can act as stop price for long orders. However, this is not mandatory and different logic for stops can be applied for both sides.
Formula for Stop Can be
Long Stop Price = Bottom - (Top - Bottom) X Stop Ratio
Short Stop Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Stop Ratio
🎯 Target Price - It is always good to set targets based on desired risk reward ratio. That means, the target should always depend on the distance between entry and stop price.
The general formula for Target can be:
Target Price = Entry + (Entry-Stop) X Risk Reward
🎯 Invalidation Price - Invalidation price is a level where the trade direction for a particular pattern needs to be ignored or invalidated. This price need to be beyond stop price. In general, trade is closed when a pattern hits invalidation price.
Formula for Invalidation price is the same as that of Stop Price, but Invalidation Ratio is more than that of Stop Ratio
Long Invalidation Price = Bottom - (Top - Bottom) X Invalidation Ratio
Short Invalidation Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Invalidation Ratio
🟡 Back Test and Forward Test and Measure the Profit Factor
It is important to perform sufficient testing to understand the profitability of the strategy before using them on the live trades. Use multiple timeframes and symbols to perform a series of back tests and forward tests, and collect as much data as possible on the historical outcomes of the strategy.
Profit Factor of the strategy can be calculated by using a simple formula
Profit Factor = (Wins/Losses) X Risk Reward
🟡 Use Filters and Different Combinations
Filters will help us in filtering out noise and trade only the selective patterns. The filters can include a simple logic such as trade long only if price is above 200 SMA and trade short only if price is below 200 SMA. Or it can be as complex as looking into the divergence signals or other complex variables.
BOOM AND BUST CYCLE IN TRADINGThe "boom and bust" cycle in trading is a period in a trader's journey when significant gains are followed by periods of significant losses, which can lead to financial consequences and emotional burnout for traders. Breaking out of this cycle is not easy but very important for long-term trading success. When a trader doesn't know what he or she is doing, but is trying to break out of this cycle, the right direction is needed to find a way out of this difficult trading journey. Here are some tips that will help you stabilize your trading when you are not earning yet but also not losing all the capital as it was before.
1. Develop a solid trading plan. This sounds like a cliché. But if you don't have a trading plan you shouldn't be trading real money. Make a trading plan. A solid trading plan should describe your trading strategy. With a clear trading plan, you will be better able to anticipate market movements, avoid impulsive decisions, and stay focused on your goals. Start your trading day with a trading plan and end it with a trading plan.
2. Everyone talks about risk. The first job of a trader is to protect capital. You learn to defend first and only then attack. Apply strict risk management rules to protect your capital from day one. Because if you don't follow risk management it will become a habit that is hard to get rid of. What to consider about risks? This includes always setting stop loss orders, using the right position size to limit risk. Not trading everything. Less is more can never be applied to trading.
3. Sticking trading strategy. Consistency is the key to getting out of the boom and bust cycle. Stick to your proven trading strategy even in difficult market conditions or during losing streaks. Abandoning a strategy due to impatience or frustration can lead to inconsistency and poor performance. When you don't follow a trading strategy you don't give it a chance to show results. Deviation from a trading strategy kills any strategy. Stick to your trading strategy, give it a chance.
4. Discipline in trading. Discipline is the key to avoiding impulsive decisions. Avoid the temptation to recover losses or over-trade. If you are constantly losing money, just look at your trades for the past week. You will say to yourself, "if I had stopped trading, I wouldn't have lost so much". Why? Because the next day or week market always presents A+ setups that would have easily covered past losing trades. So, stick to your trading plan, manage your emotions and focus on making trades according to your strategy.
5 .Everyone says manage your emotions. Practice emotional discipline and keep your mind clear while trading. But how to do that? Emotions such as greed and fear can have serious consequences on trading results. One of the surest methods of dealing with emotions in trading is backtesting your strategy. You are afraid because you don’t know what to expect from the strategy. If you know all the numbers, for example which days are unprofitable, which session is more suitable for you, etc. then you won't panic and be afraid. You know what to expect. And all these techniques, like meditation, mindfulness or other methods of dealing with stress, will not help you in the beginning. After losing your capital, will you really sit and meditate? These methods work later when you have achieved stability.
6. Last but not least: journaling. Markets are constantly evolving, and pro traders adapt their strategies to changing conditions. How do you know the markets are changing? Or how do you know if you are trading better than last month? How do you identify the trading mistakes that are dragging you down? By logging what you trade, you have to regularly analyze your trading results and be prepared to try new ideas or adjust existing strategies to improve your consistency. Collect the data. If you can't measure it, you won't be able to improve it.
Conclusion
Avoiding the boom and bust cycle in trading requires a lot of work. You will need discipline, the right approach and 100% focus. Success in trading is not your golden goose strategy or some kind of secret money management. It is a combination of several things that bring success. Constant work on yourself, patience and consistency are your allies in overcoming the boom and bust cycle.
Mastering the Art of Trading Doji Candlesticks in Forex 📈🕯️
Mastering the Art of Trading Doji Candlesticks in Forex 📈🕯️
✅Introduction
=================
In the world of forex trading, the use of candlestick patterns is an essential tool for analyzing and predicting market movements. Among these patterns, the doji candlestick holds a special significance due to its potential to signal market reversals and trend continuations. In this article, we will explore the characteristics of doji candlesticks, their significance in forex trading, and strategies for effectively trading them.
Formation of 2 doji candles on a daily time frame on GBPUSD after a retracement was a strong bullish signal.
✅Understanding the Doji Candlestick
=====================================
The doji candlestick is characterized by its very small or non-existent body, indicating that the opening and closing prices are essentially the same. This results in the formation of a short or non-existent body, with long upper and lower wicks. The doji represents market indecision, signaling a potential reversal or continuation of the current trend.
Doji candle helped me to predict a bearish reversal on USDJPY.
✅Trading Strategies with Doji Candlesticks
==============================================
1. Reversal Strategy: When a doji candle forms after a strong upward or downward trend, it can indicate market indecision and potential reversal. Traders can look for confirmation from other technical indicators or patterns to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the previous trend.
Example: After a prolonged uptrend, a doji candle forms, indicating indecision. Traders can wait for a bearish confirmation candle, such as a bearish engulfing pattern, before entering a short trade.
2. Continuation Strategy: Sometimes, a doji candle can signify a brief pause in the current trend before continuing in the same direction. Traders can wait for a break above or below the high or low of the doji to confirm the continuation of the trend.
Example: In a strong uptrend, a doji candle forms, indicating uncertainty. Traders can wait for a break above the high of the doji to enter a long trade, expecting the trend to continue.
3. Doji Patterns: Certain variations of the doji candle, such as the dragonfly doji, gravestone doji, or long-legged doji, carry their own specific implications based on their shape and position within the broader price action. Traders can develop specialized strategies based on these patterns.
Combining key levels and doji gives even more powerful confirmation
✅Conclusion
================
In conclusion, mastering the art of trading doji candlesticks in forex requires a deep understanding of their characteristics and the ability to integrate them into effective trading strategies. By incorporating doji candlesticks into their arsenal of technical tools, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and improve their decision-making process.
By learning to recognize and interpret doji patterns, traders can enhance their ability to identify potential trend reversals and continuations, leading to more profitable trading outcomes. Incorporating the strategies outlined in this article, traders can leverage the power of doji candlesticks to gain an edge in their forex trading endeavors. Happy trading! 📊💰
Emotional rollercoaster in trading. Which stage are you at?"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
- JESSE LIVERMORE
Consider a trader named Jon, who began Forex trading with high hopes of significant profits. Jon had a solid understanding of technical and fundamental analysis, and on paper had developed a profitable trading strategy and system. However, he was not prepared for the psychological challenges of the stock market...
Phase 1: Overconfidence and initial successes
In the beginning, Jon executed a few trades that turned out to be very profitable. This initial success boosted his confidence to the highest level. He began to take larger positions, thinking he had a natural talent for forex trading. His overconfidence led to impulsive decisions and excessive risk taking.
Phase 2: Reality check
Because Forex can be very volatile, Jon soon scored a series of losses. He became anxious and stressed, and began to act chaotically and in a hurry. He opened riskier and riskier trades, and wanted to trade. Losses chased losses. His emotional state worsened, affecting his personal and professional life.
Phase 3: Seeking help and education
After significant losses and emotional turmoil, Jon realized he needed help. It was natural that he started by changing to another system, then another and another, and... Still without better results, he turned to trading psychology. He learned about typical emotional traps, such as fear, greed, trading with a vengeance "to trade," lack of discipline, and poor mental toughness. He also sought support from mentors. He learned that top-earning traders put 90% of their efforts on psychology. Similarly, in the richest trading funds - they spend huge money on psychological departments and programs to support traders. He sought knowledge on how they do it.
Phase 4: Developing emotional resilience
Jon gradually began to implement strategies to build mental toughness and manage his emotions. He learned to accept losses as part of trading, stick to his trading plan, beyond emotionally managing risk and capital, and avoid making impulsive decisions. He also practiced mindfulness and relaxation techniques to reduce stress while trading.
Phase 5: Consistency and long-term success
Over time, Jon's mental strength improved significantly. He was no longer driven by emotional ups and downs. He built discipline and learned to maintain it, and began to manage risk and capital effectively. As a result, his performance stabilized and he began to make steady profits, gradually building more and more capital.
This is a typical trader's path, and reflects the typical challenges and experiences that many traders encounter in their "trading life." Unfortunately, in most cases it does not end so positively. Traders are unable (unwilling) to jump from 3 to 4. While it is the mastery of one's psyche that is often the key to long-term success in the forex market. And you, do you like to lose or make money?
"Just as professional athletes work on their body and psyche, traders should start to learn about their strengths and weaknesses and create something like a mental gym or gym for themselves. The idea is to be technically better and mentally stronger. If I were to point out a few mental qualities of the best traders it would be the ability to focus in situations of chaos and volatility, the ability to stick to the plan despite everything, the ability to manage one's reactions to highly stressful situations (like special forces). In one sentence... Current traders face a simple choice: either strengthen their psyche and increase their market advantage, or many of them face losses and abandonment of their profession." - Dr. Dariusz Swierk
If you liked this post, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment so we know to publish more for you. Cheers!
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🔜RULE FOLLOWING CHALLENGE, join to improve your trading 💪Did you know that most beginner traders can't follow their rules for 7 days in a row? Unfortunately, they start overtrading or changing the rules of the system, entering random trades, overrisk, etc.
I've been there many many times myself, but then slowly started focusing on this part and made my first 7, then 10 days of rules following, broke with another tilt, started again, reached 17, 30 days, and failed again.
Each time it became better and better, and now I'm on my way to 50 days of rule-following.
I developed a routine and system that allows me to keep doing it, day after day. It includes mental technics, as well as simple EAs for Metatrader to help with over-risking and overtrading issues.
If you want to step out of your comfort zone and improve your trading, join this 7-day rule-following challenge by leaving a comment below.
It will be hosted here on TradingView, probably using the Stream feature, but I'll let you know later when we will gather up.
Indicator Insights Part 4: Modified MACDIn this fourth instalment of our Indicator Insights series, we delve into the Modified MACD , a refinement of the classic MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) introduced by Market Wizard Linda Raschke and trading author Adam H. Grimes. This modification aims to provide traders with a more streamlined and focused tool for trend reversal identification and momentum analysis.
Understanding the Modified MACD
The Modified MACD maintains the essence of the traditional MACD while introducing specific adjustments to enhance its effectiveness. It comprises three key components: the Fast Line, the Signal Line, and the Zero Line.
Fast Line Calculation:
The Fast Line is determined by taking the difference between the 3-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 10-period SMA. This shorter time frame allows the Fast Line to respond more swiftly to recent price changes, capturing short-term momentum.
Signal Line Calculation:
The Signal Line is a 16-period SMA of the Fast Line. It provides a smoothed representation of the Fast Line's trend, offering insights into the overall momentum direction.
Zero Line Reference:
The Zero Line serves as a reference point on the indicator. Crossovers above the Zero Line may indicate bullish momentum, while crossovers below suggest bearish momentum.
Modified MACD
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Standard MACD Settings Comparison:
To appreciate the modifications, let's compare the Modified MACD settings with the standard MACD settings:
Standard MACD:
Fast Line: 12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA
Signal Line: 9-period EMA of the MACD Line
Histogram: Represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line
Modified MACD:
Fast Line: 3-period SMA minus 10-period SMA
Signal Line: 16-period SMA of the Fast Line
No Histogram: Simplifies the indicator for a cleaner representation
Zero Line: Reference for potential bullish or bearish momentum
Modified Versus Standard MACD
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Advantages of the Modified MACD
Simplicity and Clarity:
By omitting the histogram, the Modified MACD offers a cleaner representation of the relationship between the Fast Line and the Signal Line. This simplicity aids traders in making clearer interpretations of trend strength.
Faster Response:
The use of a 3-period SMA in the Fast Line provides a faster response to recent price changes. This responsiveness can be advantageous in capturing short-term trends and potential reversal points.
Identifying Trend Reversals with Modified MACD
Using the modified MACD in combination with price action analysis can be useful when predicting the end of a trend.
Bearish Trend Reversal
A bearish trend reversal is when an uptrend comes to an end. If a pullback against the uptrend has the following three characteristics, it may be predictive of a change in trend:
1. New Momentum Low: The fast line prints a new momentum low on the modified MACD during the pullback.
2. Signal Line Slopes Down: The signal line starts to slope down as prices consolidate following the pullback.
3. Market Consolidates Sideways: If the pullback against the uptrend, which recorded a new momentum low on the modified MACD, is followed by a period of sideways consolidation in which the uptrend fails to resume, this is a bearish sign.
Worked Example: EUR/USD Bearish Trend Reversal
Here we have EUR/USD on the daily candle chart, prices had been trending higher before the market put in a pullback which printed a new momentum low on the modified MACD. It’s worth noting here that MACD is a boundless indicator so we can’t set upper and lower bounds, but recent swings are good approximations of new momentum low and highs. The slope of the signal line started to point downwards and following the pullback, the market failed to resume the uptrend – consolidating sideways instead. These factors signalled a potential change in short-term trend.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Bullish Trend Reversal
The opposite applies to bullish trend reversals where a downtrend comes to an end. If a pullback against the downtrend has the following three characteristics, it may be predictive of a change in trend:
1. New Momentum High: The fast line prints a new momentum high on the modified MACD during the pullback.
2. Signal Line Slopes Up: The signal line starts to slope up as prices consolidate following the pullback.
3. Market Consolidates Sideways: If the pullback against the downtrend, which recorded a new momentum high on the modified MACD, is followed by a period of sideways consolidation in which the uptrend fails to resume, this is a bullish sign.
Worked Example: EUR/USD Bearish Trend Reversal
Keeping with the same market and same timeframe as before, we can see that our bearish trend reversal signal was followed by a bullish trend reversal signal. The market put in a pullback against the downtrend which printed a new momentum high on the modified MACD’s fast line. The market then consolidated sideways and failed to resume its uptrend – giving time for the signal line of the modified MACD to start moving higher. These factors signalled a potential change in trend.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
The Modified MACD, pioneered by Linda Raschke, introduces a simplified yet effective approach to momentum analysis, emphasising clarity and faster response to recent price changes. During pullbacks in trends, traders can leverage new momentum highs and lows on the fast line, along with a change in slope of the signal line for actionable insights into potential trend reversals.
Turning Traps into Profitable Opportunities ! TOP 3 PATTERNSTrading traps are a common occurrence in the cryptocurrency market. They can be created by a variety of factors, including market manipulation, technical analysis, and psychological biases. While traps can be dangerous for traders who are not prepared, they can also be a source of profit for those who know how to trade them effectively.
In this article, we will discuss three common trading traps and how to trade them profitably. We will also discuss how traps are created and how they can be used to your advantage.
What Are Trading Traps?
Trading traps are false movements in the price of a cryptocurrency that are designed to trick traders into taking a position in the wrong direction. They can be created by a variety of factors, including:
Market manipulation: Market manipulators may create traps to trick traders into taking positions that are in their favor. For example, they may buy a large amount of a cryptocurrency to drive up the price, and then sell it off quickly to create a sell-off.
Technical analysis: Technical analysts may use traps to take advantage of traders who are following technical indicators. For example, they may create a false breakout of a support or resistance level to trigger stop-loss orders.
Psychological biases: Psychological biases, such as fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear of loss (FUD), can also lead traders to fall into traps. For example, a trader who is afraid of missing out on a potential bull run may be more likely to buy into a false breakout.
In the example above, LINK was trading in a horizontal range for several months. The price then broke below the lower range boundary, which was a sign of a potential bear trap. However, the price quickly reversed and re-tested the lower range boundary. This was a good opportunity to enter a long position, as it showed that the trend was still in place.
How to Identify Trading Traps
There are a few things you can look for to help you identify trading traps, including:
Volume: A sudden increase in volume can be a sign that a trap is being set. This is because market manipulators or technical analysts will often need to buy or sell a large amount of cryptocurrency to create a false movement in the price.
Price action: A false breakout or fakeout is often accompanied by a sharp reversal in price action. For example, a false breakout of a support level may be followed by a sharp sell-off.
Technical indicators: Some technical indicators, such as the Bollinger Bands, can help you identify potential traps. For example, the Bollinger Bands may widen before a false breakout, which can be a sign that a trap is being set.
How to Trade Trading Traps
Once you have identified a trap, you can trade it in one of two ways:
Long trap: If you believe that the trend will continue, you can enter a long position on the re-test of the breakout level.
Short trap: If you believe that the trend will reverse, you can enter a short position on
the break of the breakout level.
Examples of Trading Traps
3.1 Triangular Trap Unveiled:
Discuss the bearish implications of descending triangles in technical analysis and their potential use as manipulation tools.
Explore how market manipulators engineer these patterns to trigger artificial stop-losses.
Case Study: NEAR's Triangular Intricacies:
Analyze NEAR's descent within a descending triangle and its unexpected breakout.
Offer insights into the motives behind orchestrating such traps and how traders can leverage these market dynamics.
Here are some examples of how trading traps can be created and traded:
Shakeout trap
A shakeout trap is a false breakout that is designed to trick traders into taking a position in the wrong direction. For example, a cryptocurrency may be trading in a horizontal range for several months. The price then breaks below the lower range boundary, which is a sign of a potential bear trap. However, the price quickly reverses and re-tests the lower range boundary. This is a good opportunity to enter a long position, as it shows that the trend is still in place.
Fakeout trap
A fakeout trap is similar to a shakeout trap, but it occurs after a trend has already begun. For example, a cryptocurrency may be in a bull market. The price then breaks above a resistance level, which is a sign that the bull market is continuing. However, the price quickly reverses and re-tests the resistance level. This is a good opportunity to enter a short position, as it shows that the bull market may be coming to an end.
Reversal trap
A reversal trap is when the trend of a market changes direction. For example, a cryptocurrency may be in a bull market. The price then breaks below a support level, which is a sign that the bull market is ending. However, the price quickly reverses and re-tests the support level. This is a good opportunity to enter a long position, as it shows that the bull market may be resuming.
The Art of Spotting Fakeouts:
Define the concept of fakeouts and unveil their potential as precursors to bullish movements.
Offer insights into distinguishing genuine breakouts from manipulative traps set by
market actors.
Case Study: ZIL's Quick Turnaround:
Uncover the Zilliqa (ZIL) chart, examining the deceptive fakeout beneath a pivotal horizontal level.
Emphasize the strategic importance of waiting for a retest post-fakeout as a confirmation signal.
Conclusion
Trading traps can be a dangerous but profitable part of cryptocurrency trading. By understanding how traps are created and how to identify them, you can increase your chances of trading them successfully.
Additional Tips for Trading Trading Traps
Use stop losses: Stop losses can help you limit your losses if you are wrong about a trade.
Be patient: Do not rush into a trade just because you see a trap. Wait for the
[EDU] Lossing How much is too Much? (Risk Management)Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
A picture speaks a 1000 words and that is so true!
Recently I came across this picture from moo moo.
It actually strike a chord with the message that I always wanted to bring across, which is the importance of risk management!
Always keep in mind that having your trade size manageable such that is wont devastate your trading account is very important.
So let's say you are trading between 1-2% risk per trade, if you are so unlucky to have 10 straight losses, you will be down with a drawdown of 10-20%, as shown in the picture you will need almost equal % of profit to get back your losses.
But, what if you were to trade with 4 or 5% risk per trade? With that,10 straight losses will get you a drawdown of 40-50%! And as you can see the gains you need to recoup these losses will be 67 to 100%. It is not hard to imagine what will happen if you are risky 10 or 20% risk per trade.
So anything can happen in trading and it is always wise to protect your downside!
Trade Safe!
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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The Trader's Toolkit: Building a Dynamic Trading JournalJoin us in this comprehensive tutorial as we walk through the essential process of building a personalized trading journal. Whether you're new to trading or aiming to elevate your strategies, this educational video empowers you with the knowledge of why building a trading journal is a critical step in your trading journey. Learn with us, and discover why a trading journal is a crucial addition to your trading toolkit.
Alternative Data is a revolution. More important than AI! p.1/2The use of Alternative Data is the current super trend strongly shaping the present and future of investing.
It is a revolution more important than the revolution that Artificial Intelligence will give.
The main benefit of Alternative Data (AD) is that you can have most of your important metrics faster and more accurately than ever before.
Alternative Data currently improves signal quality and reduces risk. In the future, it will be the primary source of signals. Today, it is the main source of competitive advantage in many cases to find and use these signals before others.
In addition to the current use of AD, it is imperative to create competencies in the fund to use it wisely in the future because this area will now evolve rapidly.
Thanks to AD, the signal will be received earlier. As a result, it will be better, less risky, the position will be easier to run, and the exit will be better.
I have prepared twenty examples of using alternative data. I want to show a broad spectrum of situations where AD have been used so far and can be used in the future.
It is often the case that an exciting and inspiring idea comes from a completely unexpected direction. Therefore, it is worth attending industry conferences and collecting as many case studies as possible of what others have done.
Counting cars in the Tesla parking lot
One fund applied Machine Learning (ML) tools to analyze satellite images of the parking lot in front of Tesla's Megafactory. The tool analyzed the position of cars and their colours. The goal was to determine if and how the number of vehicles was changing. It turned out that cars quickly disappear and new ones appear in their place, which indicated that the company would keep its commitments and plans. Moreover, with this analysis, it was known weeks before the official announcement. Such information provides a substantial advantage over other market participants.
The above is a rather famous and awe-inspiring example, so it is worth commenting on it. If we look at the area around this factory (in Nevada), we can see one access road.
Setting up a car with a camera there and having someone count the vehicles leaving the parking lot would give the same result (and perhaps much cheaper) as using a whole team to machine-analyze satellite images. It is worth knowing this and looking for a way to have the same data not for a quarter of a million dollars but for 1% of that amount.
Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Data
A big fund noted the possibility of estimating NFP data with a high degree of precision by observing how many new listings from job seekers appear on a large website that connects workers with employers.
Using ML tools, they examined the relationship between the number of new job search postings and the subsequently published employment data. They found a formula that worked very well. It estimated the magnitude and direction of currency price movements a few days before the employment data was released. Rumour has it that traders found this way back in 2012.
Knowing in advance what the key data may look like allows you to build a position for the expected movement, maintain the existing position or exit it. Some traders (and many textbooks) recommend exiting the markets before the publication of the most critical data ("because the market may move hundreds of pips in any direction"). However, if we know what the data will be and the market's expectations are, then in practice, we have a money-making machine.
I recently read on Twitter the typical speculation about future NFP data and what the markets are expecting. But, unfortunately, there is already a group that knows and can exploit this.
Data on corporate flight usage valuable in predicting M&As
For companies investing in mergers and acquisitions, information about flights on jets leased by corporations is a good source of information about possible events. Two funds are cited as better-known examples. One of them made over 300 million, and the other 700 million using such data.
Traders tracked the flights of key people of a particular company to the city where another large company interested in an acquisition is headquartered. The board flight data was the first sign that something interesting might be going on.
When the information began to be confirmed, large positions were built. Prior knowledge allowed them to enter the market before everyone else.
Social media data can stand alone as a source of valuable signals.
Another big quant fund researched which analysts posting on Twitter had the best results and set up the following system. The application watches the Twitter feed of a selected group of top analysts and places orders when recommendations appear. The whole thing happens automatically.
Many analysts have spent years studying industries and sectors, and they have vast experience that they share on social media. Therefore, this strategy is a "no brainer".
Reading data from company documents with ML allows you to identify those companies that are likely to use creative accounting ("cooking books")
A trader uses this tool to pick out suspicious companies, creates a list of them, and further analyses the situation. As soon as his suspicions are confirmed, he builds shorts.
This example shows a system based on tracking anomalies in documents.
I have not heard of any fund doing this on a large scale, although they have similar tools at their disposal. They work in conjunction with other methods to give a better, more complete picture of a given situation.
Program enters a position by analyzing the news.
News moves the markets, but the sheer volume of information is a problem.
One fund created a stand-alone system to analyze news about a selected group of companies. The automat reads the news and analyzes the sentiment it contains. If it is positive, it buys; if negative - it sells.
Of course, there are additional elements here, but I want to show the very essence of the solution. Everything is done automatically. The trader is undoubtedly able to repeat some of these positions, but only a tiny part. The algorithm never sleeps. Hence it can work constantly and on every market from Tokyo to New York.
Moreover, with time, other factors will be added to the analysis of news sentiment. As a result, the strategy will be expanded and improved.
The capital will systematically flow to algorithms of this type. And this is not good news for discrete investors and traders.
The analysis of internet searches focused on sports brands shows the deepening weakness of the sector as well as the weakness of the biggest brands there.
Later, weakness has been confirmed by poorer performance, which in turn has brought price declines.
It's worth paying attention to this example - it shows trends in sentiment around companies and in the sector itself - in other words, changes in sentiment over time.
Soon, we, or rather the biggest traders and funds, will gauge sentiment trends for the major groups that consume a company's products and the sentiment of the major groups that own the company's stock. This insight will make the company picture clearer and the signals better.
The trader who has this valuable knowledge earlier will win.
Traders use new data while already in a position to extend their position or exit it.
A trader holding shares of a gaming company ordered a survey on whether the current customers would be willing to buy a new game that the company was developing. Most of them said yes, so he kept his position. The game turned out to be a success, and the price of the stake he held rose.
The survey was a way to forecast demand for the new product long before it was sold and long before the company's results were released.
This example shows using data not just as a signal but as information on whether it is worth extending a position.
Traders use AD to eliminate weaker signals.
One fund uses a mean reversion strategy. It is based on finding excess deviation from the average price of a company and opening the position hoping for a reversal.
For example, the price went too high, and the machine will try to catch the correction. Each element of the system, i.e. what is "too far", which moving average is the best, is determined with the help of statistics.
After publishing data on companies, this system enters the - it evaluates whether the upward movement is not too strong and trades on the declines.
If the amount of good data is high or the positive mood around the company lasts longer - the falls are weaker.
In this case, the program either does not enter the market or exits if it already has a position.
ADs allow you to understand better what makes up a signal.
One large fund analyzed the factors that influence the share price in the sector and found over 200 of them (they used PCA/ICA - Independent Component Analysis). They got 100 important ones and a sound system for predicting financial performance by removing the least significant.
The system examines incoming data and gives a forecast based on that, and there is no simple analytical relationship.
This is one example of a new type of system. "Manual" analysis of 100 factors would require a large team of skilled analysts and perhaps several years of work to find a working relationship. And then feeding the signal would maybe need a few additional days of work.
Today, building a system using Machine Learning is neither cheap nor short. However, in return, the finished system will analyze and give the result in seconds.
It is worth considering that the main factor that was analyzed was the quarterly results until recently. Today, 100 different factors can be analyzed simultaneously! First, it is worth examining which of the initially selected ones have a significant impact.
Does such knowledge give a market advantage? For example, suppose we ponder the capabilities of a trader or even a whole team of analysts and traders. Then juxtapose it with a system that automatically analyzes 100 factors every day for each company in a few seconds.
This news is not favourable for investors.
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Flag and Pennant Chart Patterns🎲 An extension to Chart Patterns based on Trend Line Pairs - Flags and Pennants
After exploring Algorithmic Identification and Classification of Chart Patterns , we now delve into extensions of these patterns, focusing on Flag and Pennant Chart Patterns. These patterns evolve from basic trend line pair-based structures, often influenced by preceding market impulses.
🎲 Identification rules for the Extension Patterns
🎯 Identify the existence of Base Chart Patterns
Before identifying the flag and pennant patterns, we first need to identify the existence of following base trend line pair based converging or parallel patterns.
Ascending Channel
Descending Channel
Rising Wedge (Contracting)
Falling Wedge (Contracting)
Converging Triangle
Descending Triangle (Contracting)
Ascending Triangle (Contracting)
🎯 Identifying Extension Patterns.
The key to pinpointing these patterns lies in spotting a strong impulsive wave – akin to a flagpole – preceding a base pattern. This setup suggests potential for an extension pattern:
A Bullish Flag emerges from a positive impulse followed by a descending channel or a falling wedge
A Bearish Flag appears after a negative impulse leading to an ascending channel or a rising wedge.
A Bullish Pennant is indicated by a positive thrust preceding a converging triangle or ascending triangle.
A Bearish Pennant follows a negative impulse and a converging or descending triangle.
🎲 Pattern Classifications and Characteristics
🎯 Bullish Flag Pattern
Characteristics of Bullish Flag Pattern are as follows
Starts with a positive impulse wave
Immediately followed by either a short descending channel or a falling wedge
Here is an example of Bullish Flag Pattern
🎯 Bearish Flag Pattern
Characteristics of Bearish Flag Pattern are as follows
Starts with a negative impulse wave
Immediately followed by either a short ascending channel or a rising wedge
Here is an example of Bearish Flag Pattern
🎯 Bullish Pennant Pattern
Characteristics of Bullish Pennant Pattern are as follows
Starts with a positive impulse wave
Immediately followed by either a converging triangle or ascending triangle pattern.
Here is an example of Bullish Pennant Pattern
🎯 Bearish Pennant Pattern
Characteristics of Bearish Pennant Pattern are as follows
Starts with a negative impulse wave
Immediately followed by either a converging triangle or a descending converging triangle pattern.
Here is an example of Bearish Pennant Pattern
🎲 Trading Extension Patterns
In a strong market trend, it's common to see temporary periods of consolidation, forming patterns that either converge or range, often counter to the ongoing trend direction. Such pauses may lay the groundwork for the continuation of the trend post-breakout. The assumption that the trend will resume shapes the underlying bias of Flag and Pennant patterns
It's important, however, not to base decisions solely on past trends. Conducting personal back testing is crucial to ascertain the most effective entry and exit strategies for these patterns. Remember, the behavior of these patterns can vary significantly with the volatility of the asset and the specific timeframe being analyzed.
Approach the interpretation of these patterns with prudence, considering that market dynamics are subject to a wide array of influencing factors that might deviate from expected outcomes. For investors and traders, it's essential to engage in thorough back testing, establishing entry points, stop-loss orders, and target goals that align with your individual trading style and risk appetite. This step is key to assessing the viability of these patterns in line with your personal trading strategies and goals.
It's fairly common to witness a breakout followed by a swift price reversal after these patterns have formed. Additionally, there's room for innovation in trading by going against the bias if the breakout occurs in the opposite direction, specially when the trend before the formation of the pattern is in against the pattern bias.
🎲 Cheat Sheet
Navigating Markets with Gann Fans: A Step-by-Step GuideWelcome to our comprehensive tutorial on placing and utilizing Gann Fans. In this step-by-step guide, we'll dive into the practical aspects of Gann Fans, a powerful tool for assessing non-horizontal support in resistance for technical analysis. We will thoroughly explain how Gann Fans are placed and what pitfalls to avoid when placing them. Whether you're new to Gann Fans or looking to enhance your trading strategy, this video provides actionable insights and a real-world example to help you harness the potential of Gann Fans with confidence. Join us as we demystify Gann Fans and empower you to navigate market swings with precision and skill.
JXY seasonality In the realm of market trends and seasonality, January in the JXY index has historically exhibited a remarkable 70% bullish bias. However, the current scenario defies this pattern, with the JXY index experiencing a decline exceeding 3% until January 22, 2024. The peculiar nature of January's bullish inclination in recent years can be attributed to the pivotal TOKYO CPI (Consumer Price Index) year-on-year data release during this month. Last year, the JXY index initially faced a downward trajectory in January, only to rebound following the release of the TOKYO CPI. This led to a positive shift, ultimately yielding an approximate 1% return. As the market eagerly anticipates the unfolding events, the upcoming TOKYO CPI data release on January 23, 2024, holds the potential to significantly influence the JXY index and shape the trajectory of its performance in the immediate future.
2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS
The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points:
Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models.
Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets.
Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices.
Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market.
Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations.
Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector.
2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS
The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points:
Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans.
Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion.
Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system.
Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction.
Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending.
Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks.
Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises.
2019 PRE COVID
In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health.
2024 Outlook
The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.