Ninja Talks EP 9: Despair and HopeDespair and Hope, two sides of the same coin and the two emotions that rule your decision making.
In my 10+ years of trading experience, I'm not sure it's even possible to not feel or be aware of them in some way - what I'm saying is, I don't know if you can get rid of them entirely from your trading.
It may just be a constant (and natural) part of being a trader.
These days I use the intuition, awareness and knowledge about these two emotions to make the bulk of my money.
Techniques are autopilot at this point, same goes for money management, but psychology - hope - despair? They seem to be a daily "battle".
I put "battle" in quotes because, yes it's back and fourth but it doesn't need to be adversarial, do'ya know what I mean?
Too many Bambi traders run from despair and seek hope, but I use them differently - I use them as sensors of when to time an entry and exit perfectly - kinda like parking sensors on modern day cars, they're there to warn you - it's not good or bad, it's just warning you.
Hope this helps, follow for more Ninja Talks.
Nick
Support and Resistance
Entry Plan After BreakoutHello traders. Having a trading plan is very important and you should always have a plan before you enter a trade. Here I explained 4 types of possible entries when breakout occurs.
You can see here example of a consolidation between support and resistance zones. Strong breakout occurs, and what to do now? Should we sell immediately after breakout? Maybe, but its usually very risky. Especially if you use narrow stop loss. So it is much better choice to wait for one of these 4 possible outcomes.
First and the best choice is to wait for a retest of a broken support. Maybe some nice candlestick pattern formation or pattern like double top.
Sometimes full retest will not occur, but its possible to see wick rejection. This is second option and it can be very useful in a volatile markets.
If a pullback is strong and price breaks previous support again, we can start asking questions is this a fake-out? It is hard to tell depending on a situation, but anyway, it is time to change our plan. What do to now?
Now we have third option, which is to wait for a retest of previously broken support and then look to enter a trade. So price returned to our consolidation zone, and now we wait for a retest.
Sometimes pullback will be very strong and go all the way through our consolation zone and break previous resistance (or support). In this case we can look to enter once the price retests this key zone/level.
This is the plan that I try to follow. You can adjust it, or change it as you wish, but the point is to have one (Entry Plan).
Have a great day!
Learn How to Trade Cup and Handle (rare but profitable pattern)☕
If you are studying a price action, you should definitely know Cup and Handle formation.
Being applied properly, it can generate big profits.
In this educational article, I will teach you how to identify this pattern. We will discuss its psychology and I will share with you 2 trading strategies.
📏And let's start with the structure of the pattern.
The pattern has 3 important elements:
Cup - long-term correctional movement that tends to move steadily from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
Handle - short-term correctional movement with signs of bullish strength.
Neckline - upper horizontal boundary of the pattern - a strong resistance that the price constantly respects.
⚠️Being formed, it warns you about a highly probable coming bullish movement.
The trigger that confirms the initiation of a bullish wave is a breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
Here is the example of a completed C&H with a confirmed neckline breakout, indicating a highly probably coming bullish movement.
Depending on the preceding price action, Cup & Handle Pattern can either be a trend-following or reversal pattern.
📉If the pattern is formed after a bearish impulse. It is considered to be a reversal pattern.
Here is the example of a reversal C&H that I spotted on EURUSD.
📈If the pattern is formed at the top of a bullish impulse, it is considered to be a trend following pattern.
Here is the example of a trend following C&H that I spotted on GBPJPY Index.
The thing is that while the price forms the C&H, buying volumes are accumulating. Even though, buyers are hesitant and reluctant initially, their confidence grows, and the accumulation leads to explosive neckline breakout.
There are 2 strategies to trade this pattern.
✔️Strategy 1.
That approach is quite risky, but the reward can be quite substantial.
You should monitor the price action when the price is forming a handle. Occasionally, the price starts trading in a falling channel: parallel or contracting one.
Your trigger will be a bullish breakout of its resistance and a candle close above.
Once the violation is confirmed, you can buy aggressively or set a buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the channel.
Target will be the closest key resistance.
Here is the example of the handle being a falling channel.
📍Strategy 2.
Wait for a breakout of a neckline of the pattern.
Once a candle closes above that, it will confirm the violation.
Buy the market aggressively or set a buy limit on a retest of a broken neckline then.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the handle.
Target will be the closest key resistance.
Here is the example of the trade based on a confirmed breakout of a neckline of C&P on NASDAQ Index.
Applied properly, the strategies may reach up to 70% win rate.
As always, the best pattern will be the one that forms on a key level.
Try it, test it, and good luck in your trading journey.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Trading Groups And Why They MatterHi there,
When it comes to trading groups, there are both potential benefits and considerations to keep in mind. Joining a trading group can be a valuable opportunity for traders seeking fresh perspectives and innovative ideas to enhance their understanding of the market.
Benefits of trading groups include exposure to diverse concepts and techniques that can broaden your trading horizons. They can serve as a platform for exchanging insights and learning from experienced traders, helping you stay updated with market trends.
However, it's important to approach trading groups with some caution and conduct thorough research before joining. Here are a few factors to consider:
1. Groupthink: Being part of a group can sometimes lead to conformity and biased decision-making. It's important to maintain an independent mindset and critically evaluate the ideas and opinions shared within the group.
2. Risk management: Trading groups may have different risk tolerances compared to individual traders. Assess the level of risk associated with the group's strategies and ensure it aligns with your own risk appetite.
3. Financial considerations: Some trading groups may have membership fees, subscription costs, or commissions on recommended trades. Understand the financial implications of joining a group and ensure it fits within your budget.
4. Personal trading style: Evaluate whether the trading group's strategies and recommendations align with your own trading style and objectives. Maintaining control over your decisions is crucial for long-term success.
5. Transparency and accountability: Look for trading groups that prioritize transparency and accountability. Members should be held responsible for their actions and decisions, fostering a trustworthy and supportive environment.
While trading groups can provide valuable insights, remember that your own knowledge and skills are paramount. Dedicate time to educate yourself, practice patience, and develop your own trading strategies. Striking a balance between learning from others and nurturing your individual approach will empower you to make informed decisions and thrive in the dynamic world of trading.
How to Use the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator
Welcome, fellow traders, to this exciting tutorial where we dive deep into the world of supply and demand analysis using the powerful Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator that I launched this morning. Prepare yourself for an enjoyable learning experience as we unravel the mysteries of supply and demand levels across various timeframes. So, grab your favorite trading beverage, sit back, and let's embark on this adventure together!
Section 1: Understanding Supply and Demand Analysis:
Before we delve into the specifics of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, let's understand the importance of supply and demand analysis in trading. Supply represents the availability of shares or contracts for sale, while demand represents the number of buyers interested in purchasing those shares or contracts. By analyzing the interaction between supply and demand, traders can identify potential turning points, support and resistance levels, and areas of high buying or selling interest. This knowledge forms the foundation of effective trading strategies, and the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is here to assist us in this journey.
Section 2: Introducing the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is a powerful tool designed specifically for TradingView. Its primary goal is to identify supply and demand levels on various timeframes, including weekly, daily, and hourly. With visual plots and customization options, this indicator empowers traders to make well-informed decisions based on the principles of supply and demand. It caters to traders of all styles and timeframes, from day traders to long-term investors.
Section 3: Getting Started: Installing and Adding the Indicator to Your Chart:
To begin using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, install it on your TradingView platform. Visit the TradingView website, navigate to the indicators section, and search for "Supply and Demand Deluxe (Stock Justice)." Click on the indicator to access its details and add it to your chart. The indicator will be added and ready to unlock its potential.
Section 4: Exploring the Key Components and Functionalities:
Let's explore the key components and functionalities of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, which help us identify and interpret supply and demand levels effectively.
4.1 Daily and Weekly Pivots:
Daily and weekly pivots provide essential reference points. The indicator allows you to plot the previous week's high and low, yesterday's high and low, and the midpoint of yesterday's range. Visualizing these pivots helps gauge potential areas of interest and determine price behavior.
4.2 Weekly Supply and Demand Levels:
Weekly supply and demand levels are critical for understanding the broader market context. With the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, you can plot these levels, customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and decide whether to extend the lines. Enabling the "Show Price" option enhances your analysis.
4.3 Daily Supply and Demand Levels:
Similar to the weekly levels, daily supply and demand levels provide valuable insights into intraday price dynamics. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and determine line extensions. Enabling the "Show Price" option visualizes corresponding prices.
4.4 Hourly Supply and Demand Levels:
Intraday traders will appreciate the Hourly Supply and Demand Levels feature. The indicator automatically identifies these levels based on the highest and lowest values of the past 10 bars. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and even show prices associated with these levels.
4.5 ATR Expected Moves:
The ATR Expected Moves feature calculates expected price moves based on the Average True Range (ATR). Customize the lookback length and multipliers. Extend lines, choose colors and line styles, and display prices. Incorporating ATR Expected Moves helps set realistic profit targets and manage risk effectively.
4.6 Futures Levels:
For futures traders, the indicator provides specific levels for the Midnight Open, London Open, Asian Open, and the 8:30am EST level. These levels act as potential reference points, aiding in identifying intraday opportunities and aligning trades with global market dynamics.
Section 5: Customizing the Indicator to Fit Your Trading Style:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator offers customization options to align with your trading style and preferences.
5.1 Adjusting Input Parameters:
Fine-tune the indicator by adjusting parameters such as the number of levels plotted, lookback length, multipliers for ATR calculations, and more. Experiment with different settings to better suit your trading strategy.
5.2 Customizing Visual Elements:
Customize line colors, styles, and extension options to enhance aesthetics and readability. Choose colors, line styles, and decide whether to extend lines to the left, right, or both. This level of customization ensures a visually pleasing trading experience.
Section 6: Practical Applications and Trading Strategies:
In this section, we explore practical applications and trading strategies using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator.
6.1 Identifying Key Supply and Demand Levels:
The indicator helps identify key supply and demand levels across different timeframes. Analyzing these levels in conjunction with other technical analysis tools can identify high-probability trade setups.
6.2 Using Pivots for Reference Points:
Pivots, both daily and weekly, serve as crucial reference points. Consider price reactions around these pivots and consider them in conjunction with supply and demand levels to gain valuable insights into market dynamics.
6.3 Incorporating ATR Expected Moves in Risk Management:
Use the ATR Expected Moves feature for risk management. Set realistic profit targets and define appropriate stop-loss levels based on expected price moves. This statistical framework helps adjust position sizing and manage risk effectively.
Section 7: Tips and Tricks for Maximizing the Indicator's Potential:
To enhance your trading experience with the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, consider these tips and tricks:
7.1 Leveraging Different Timeframes:
Analyze supply and demand dynamics across different timeframes. Use higher timeframes for overall market context and lower timeframes for precise entries and exits. Combining multiple timeframes improves analysis accuracy.
7.2 Combining Multiple Timeframes:
Combine the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator with other technical analysis tools such as moving averages, oscillators, or chart patterns. This synergy provides confirmation signals and increases the probability of successful trades.
Section 8: Conclusion:
Congratulations on completing this comprehensive tutorial on the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator! We've covered the fundamental concepts, explored features and functionalities, and discussed practical applications and trading strategies. Experiment with different settings, customize visual elements, and integrate the indicator into your trading plan. As you gain experience, you'll be well-equipped to make informed trading decisions. Keep exploring, stay disciplined, and may the markets bring you success!
A BASIC ENTRYThis right here is my favorite type of entry where you can basically see a nice bottom and re-test from the pullback before so in my eyes coming back down to this price too fill in the gaps is a MUST PAY ATTENTION type of trade... too me this is a continuation of price action. NOW! don't just get to your desired price and throw a market order in just because it's there? Wait for some big volume to come through, wait for the next pullback... Getting too the price is one thing... but knowing what to do next is the ball game.
I mean if I can get the price too come down far enough that i can set my SL behind a bunch of big 4HR, 1D bottoms and scale down to a lower TF too catch a clean leveraged trade. That's a strategy in itself... To add a focus on discipline, mindset, psychology, family, friends, work! an all-round lifestyle as a SOLDIER! you come to realize that trading is such a very small part of the game. Nail life first... then that simple strategy might just work.
Learn How to Trade Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Hey traders,
🔝Top-Down analysis is one of the most efficient ways to analyze & trade different financial markets. In this post, we will discuss the time frames to watch and the main steps to go through to execute a Top-Down trading strategy properly.
Being a Top-Down trader your task is to assess the global market perspective and identify the zones, the areas from where it will be relatively safe for you to trade it following the trend or catching the reversals.
➖Weekly time frame shows you the price action during the last couple of years. It unveils the major zones of supply and demand and indicates the long-term direction of the market.
Your task is to spot these zones and underline them.
The strongest market moves most of the time initiate from these zones.
At the same time, you must remember that on a weekly time frame the market is extremely slow. Being beyond the key zones 90% of the time, it takes many weeks, even months for the market to reach them.
➖Once you completed a weekly time frame analysis,
the next on your radar is a daily time frame.
Daily time frame shows you 1-year-long price action.
It indicates a mid-term sentiment.
And again, here your task is to simply identify the market trend and underline major key levels.
*It is highly recommendable to apply different colors for highlighting weekly/daily levels.
Completing weekly/daily time frame analysis, your task is to set the alerts on at least two closest support/resistance clusters. You must patiently wait for the moment when the price reaches one of them.
Once the underlined key level is reached, you start the analysis of intraday time frames.
➖The intraday time frames on focus are 4H/1H.
Your task here is to spot the price action/ candlestick patterns.
With such formations, the market unveils its reaction to the key level that it is approaching.
You are looking for a pattern that confirms the strength of the level.
Spotting the pattern you are looking for a trigger to open a trading position. Most of the time it is a breakout of a trend line or a horizontal neckline.
The breakout confirms the willingness of buyers/sellers to buy/sell from the underlined support/resistance . Only then a trading position is opened.
Here is the example how I analyzed and traded Gold using multiple time frame analysis:
1. I have analyzed weekly chart and spotted a key horizontal resistance
2. On a daily time frame, I found a rising trend line that matched perfectly with the underlined weekly structure.
3. Testing the confluence zone based on a trend line and a horizontal resistance, the price formed a double top pattern on 4H time frame. Its neckline breakout was my confirmation to open a short positing.
Entry point was a retest of a broken neckline.
The market dropped sharply, producing a very nice profit.
Of course, in practice, Top-Down analysis is very complex and many things and concepts must be learned in order to apply that strategy properly. Follow the steps described in this post, learn to identify key levels and recognize the price action patterns and you will see how efficient this strategy is.
Do you apply a Top-Down trading strategy?
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Riding the Market Tides with the Initial Balance Ahoy, fellow traders! So you’re itching to become the Captain Jack Sparrow of trading, eh? Before you swashbuckle through the stock market, you need a treasure map. Enter the Initial Balance trading strategy! This nifty tool can be the compass guiding you through stormy market seas. But hold your horses, we’re not talking about a literal balance here; it's more like the market’s opening mood ring. Hang tight as we steer you through the nuts and bolts of this golden strategy.
Setting Sail: What’s the Initial Balance Trading Strategy?
The Initial Balance trading strategy is like that morning coffee - it sets the tone for the day. Here's how it works: You observe the high and low of the first hour of trading. This range, my friends, is the Initial Balance. It’s a harbinger of how the market may swing for the rest of the day. The million-dollar question is, how do you use this to fill your coffers?
Anchors Aweigh: Establishing the Initial Balance
First things first, you need to get a grip on that Initial Balance. Let’s break it down step by step:
Watch the market like a hawk from the opening bell.
Jot down the highest and lowest points during the first hour.
Plot them on your chart and voila! That's your Initial Balance.
Sailing Through Uncharted Waters: Price Action
When the price takes a leap of faith outside this range, that's when the magic happens. It might indicate a trend in making. Hold on to your hats, because this is where you can swoop in and take a position.
The North Star: Using Indicators
Now, I wouldn’t bet my last doubloon solely on the Initial Balance. It’s a guide, not gospel. Bring in some allies like volume indicators and moving averages to keep you from sailing off the edge of the world.
Why Is the Initial Balance Trading Strategy the X Marks the Spot?
Oh, the Initial Balance trading strategy has a special place in traders' hearts for a reason. Here’s what makes it the go-to guide for many:
First Mover Advantage: Get a jump on the crowd. Being in the know from the get-go can be your secret weapon.
Flexibility: This ain't a one-trick pony. Use it for day trading or merge it with other indicators to build a rock-solid strategy.
Early Warning System: When the seas are rough, it’s best to stay ashore. The Initial Balance can help you gauge the market’s mood and steer clear if needed.
Weathering the Storms: Potential Pitfalls
Hold up! No treasure hunt is complete without booby traps. So, what could possibly go wrong?
False Breakouts: Sometimes the market’s just messing with you. The price could break out of the Initial Balance, only to do an about-face.
Overnight News: A sneaky villain. News from across the seven seas can throw a monkey wrench in the works, and your Initial Balance may end up as useful as a chocolate teapot.
FAQs
1. Can I use the Initial Balance trading strategy for any market?
Aye, matey! Whether stocks, forex, or commodities, it’s all fair game.
2. What time frame should I use to establish the Initial Balance?
Traditionally, it’s the first hour. But hey, if you like living on the edge, some traders narrow it down to the first 30 minutes.
3. Can the Initial Balance Trading Strategy be my only strategy?
Well, putting all your eggs in one basket might leave you with egg on your face. It's good to mix and match with other strategies.
Concluding Our Voyage: All Hands on Deck!
To wrap this shindig up, the Initial Balance trading strategy can be the wind in your sails. But don’t go sailing blindfolded; be sure to have some extra navigational tools on hand. It’s a pirate’s life for you, but remember, even the savviest pirates have a trusty crew and a sturdy ship. So weigh anchor, and let the Initial Balance be your first mate on this high-seas adventure. Happy trading!
Expert Tips for Successful Stocks, Futures, Fx, Crypto, Trading Price action technical analysis is a popular and effective approach to navigating the financial markets, including stocks, options, futures, Forex, Crypto, and Commodity trading. This article will provide expert tips and insights to help you successfully trade various financial instruments using price action technical analysis. By understanding and applying these concepts, you can improve your trading skills and potentially achieve greater profitability.
1. Understanding Price Action Technical Analysis
Price action technical analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets by focusing on the price movements of assets, rather than relying on indicators or other external factors. This approach is based on the belief that historical price movements can provide valuable insights into future price trends and potential trading opportunities.
Importance of Price Action
Price action is the most direct and real-time reflection of the market's sentiment and the forces driving it. By studying price action, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. With practice, traders can develop an intuitive sense of the market's behavior, allowing them to quickly adapt to changing conditions and capitalize on opportunities.
Key Concepts in Price Action Technical Analysis
There are several key concepts in price action technical analysis that traders must understand to effectively navigate the markets. These include support, resistance, trend, and fibonacci levels. By mastering these concepts, traders can identify potential entry and exit points, manage risk, and maximize profits.
2. Analyzing Stocks with Price Action Technical Analysis
Stocks are a popular financial instrument for traders, and price action technical analysis can be particularly useful for identifying potential opportunities in this market. By analyzing the price movements of stocks, traders can gain insights into the underlying forces driving the market and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis. These levels represent psychological barriers where the forces of supply and demand meet. When the price of a stock reaches a support or resistance level, it often experiences a reversal or a consolidation before continuing its trend.
Support
Support is a price level where the stock's downward movement is halted due to the presence of a strong buying interest. When a stock reaches a support level, it is likely to experience a bounce or a temporary pause in its downward trend.
Resistance
Resistance, on the other hand, is a price level where the stock's upward movement is halted due to the presence of strong selling interest. When a stock reaches a resistance level, it is likely to experience a pullback or a temporary pause in its upward trend.
Identifying Trends
Trends are an essential aspect of price action technical analysis, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. A trend is a sustained movement in the price of a stock in a particular direction, either upward (bullish) or downward (bearish).
Uptrends
An uptrend is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the stock's price is consistently rising over time. In an uptrend, traders should generally look for buying opportunities, as the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory.
Downtrends
A downtrend, on the other hand, is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that the stock's price is consistently falling over time. In a downtrend, traders should generally look for selling opportunities, as the stock is likely to continue its downward trajectory.
Using Fibonacci Levels
Fibonacci levels are a powerful tool in price action technical analysis, as they can help traders identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as possible entry and exit points. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. In trading, Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from this sequence and are used to predict potential price reversals.
3. Trading Options with Price Action Technical Analysis
Options are another popular financial instrument for traders, and price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential opportunities in this market as well. By analyzing the price movements of the underlying asset, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell options contracts.
Understanding Options
Options are financial instruments that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (called the "strike price") on or before a specified expiration date. There are two types of options: call options, which give the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset, and put options, which give the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset.
Analyzing Options with Price Action Technical Analysis
When trading options, price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as to manage risk. By analyzing the price movements of the underlying asset, traders can gain insights into the market dynamics and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell options contracts.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
As with stocks, support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis for options. By identifying these levels, traders can determine potential entry and exit points for their options trades, as well as manage risk.
Identifying Trends
Trends are also essential when trading options, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. By identifying the trend of the underlying asset, traders can make more informed decisions about which options contracts to buy or sell.
4. Analyzing Futures with Price Action Technical Analysis
Futures are another popular financial instrument for traders, and price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential opportunities in this market as well. By analyzing the price movements of the underlying asset, traders can make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit futures positions.
Understanding Futures
Futures are financial contracts that obligate the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset) at a predetermined future date and price. Futures contracts are standardized and traded on exchanges, allowing traders to speculate on the future price movements of various assets, such as commodities, currencies, and indices.
Analyzing Futures with Price Action Technical Analysis
When trading futures, price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as to manage risk. By analyzing the price movements of the underlying asset, traders can gain insights into the market dynamics and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit futures positions.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
As with stocks and options, support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis for futures. By identifying these levels, traders can determine potential entry and exit points for their futures trades, as well as manage risk.
Identifying Trends
Trends are also essential when trading futures, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. By identifying the trend of the underlying asset, traders can make more informed decisions about which futures contracts to buy or sell.
5. Trading Forex with Price Action Technical Analysis
Forex, or foreign exchange, is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, making it a popular choice for traders who want to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. Price action technical analysis can be particularly useful for forex traders, as it allows them to identify potential trading opportunities based on the movements of currency pairs.
Understanding Forex
The Forex market is where currencies are traded, allowing traders and investors to speculate on the relative value of one currency against another. Forex trading involves the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another, with currency pairs representing the value of one currency relative to the other.
Analyzing Forex with Price Action Technical Analysis
When trading forex, price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as to manage risk. By analyzing the price movements of currency pairs, traders can gain insights into the market dynamics and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit forex positions.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
As with other financial instruments, support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis for forex. By identifying these levels, traders can determine potential entry and exit points for their forex trades, as well as manage risk.
Identifying Trends
Trends are also essential when trading forex, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. By identifying the trend of a currency pair, traders can make more informed decisions about which forex positions to take.
6. Trading Crypto with Price Action Technical Analysis
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained significant popularity in recent years, offering traders another market to navigate using price action technical analysis. By analyzing the price movements of cryptocurrencies, traders can identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions.
Understanding Crypto
Cryptocurrencies are digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security and operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain. These digital assets have gained popularity due to their potential for significant price appreciation, as well as their use as an alternative to traditional currencies.
Analyzing Crypto with Price Action Technical Analysis
When trading cryptocurrencies, price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as to manage risk. By analyzing the price movements of cryptocurrencies, traders can gain insights into the market dynamics and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit crypto positions.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
As with other financial instruments, support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis for cryptocurrencies. By identifying these levels, traders can determine potential entry and exit points for their crypto trades, as well as manage risk.
Identifying Trends
Trends are also essential when trading cryptocurrencies, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. By identifying the trend of a cryptocurrency, traders can make more informed decisions about which crypto positions to take.
7. Trading Commodities with Price Action Technical Analysis
Commodities, such as gold, oil, and agricultural products, are another popular market for traders who want to utilize price action technical analysis. By analyzing the price movements of commodities, traders can identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions.
Understanding Commodities
Commodities are basic goods that are either grown, mined, or otherwise produced, and are used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. Commodity markets allow traders and investors to speculate on the future price movements of these goods, as well as hedge against potential price fluctuations.
Analyzing Commodities with Price Action Technical Analysis
When trading commodities, price action technical analysis can be used to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as to manage risk. By analyzing the price movements of commodities, traders can gain insights into the market dynamics and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit commodity positions.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
As with other financial instruments, support and resistance levels are critical concepts in price action technical analysis for commodities. By identifying these levels, traders can determine potential entry and exit points for their commodity trades, as well as manage risk.
Identifying Trends
Trends are also essential when trading commodities, as they provide traders with a directional bias for their trades. By identifying the trend of a commodity, traders can make more informed decisions about which commodity positions to take.
8. Risk Management in Price Action Technical Analysis
Risk management is a crucial aspect of successful trading, regardless of the financial instrument being traded. By employing effective risk management strategies, traders can minimize potential losses and maximize their chances of success.
Setting Stop Losses
One of the most important risk management tools in price action technical analysis is the use of stop losses. A stop loss is an order to close a trade at a predetermined level if the market moves against the trader's position. By setting a stop loss, traders can limit their potential losses and prevent large drawdowns in their trading accounts.
Position Sizing
Another critical aspect of risk management is position sizing, which involves determining the appropriate size of a trade based on the trader's account size and risk tolerance. By using proper position sizing techniques, traders can avoid overexposure to any single trade and maintain a balanced portfolio.
9. Developing a Trading Plan
A successful trading strategy requires a solid trading plan, which outlines the trader's goals, risk tolerance, and specific trading rules. By developing a comprehensive trading plan, traders can maintain discipline and consistency in their trading decisions, leading to improved results over time.
Establishing Trading Goals
The first step in developing a trading plan is to establish clear trading goals, which can include both short-term and long-term objectives. These goals should be realistic, achievable, and aligned with the trader's overall financial objectives.
Defining Risk Tolerance
Another essential aspect of a trading plan is defining the trader's risk tolerance, which involves determining the level of risk the trader is willing to accept in pursuit of their trading goals. By clearly defining their risk tolerance, traders can make more informed decisions about their trading strategies and ensure that they are not taking on excessive risk.
Creating Trading Rules
Finally, a well-developed trading plan should include specific trading rules that govern the trader's actions in the market. These rules should be based on the trader's analysis of price action and other relevant factors and should be consistently followed to ensure discipline and consistency in the trader's decision-making process.
10. Continuous Improvement and Education
Successful trading requires continuous learning and improvement, as the financial markets are constantly evolving and presenting new challenges and opportunities. By staying informed about market developments and continually refining their trading skills, traders can adapt to changing conditions and enhance their overall trading performance.
Reviewing and Analyzing Trades
One of the most effective ways to improve as a trader is to regularly review and analyze past trades. By examining the trades that were successful, as well as those that resulted in losses, traders can identify areas for improvement and make adjustments to their trading strategies as needed.
Seeking Educational Resources
There are many educational resources available to traders from ChartPros, including eBooks, online courses, and webinars. By actively seeking out these resources and continuing to expand their knowledge of the markets and trading techniques, traders can stay ahead of the curve and improve their chances of success.
In conclusion...
Navigating the markets with price action technical analysis is a powerful approach to trading various financial instruments, including stocks, options, futures, Forex, Crypto, and Commodity trading. By mastering the key concepts of price action technical analysis, such as support, resistance, trends, and Fibonacci levels, traders can improve their trading skills and potentially achieve greater profitability. Continuous education and improvement are essential to staying ahead in the ever-changing financial markets.
Cup and Handle Trading Guide ☕️
The cup and handle pattern is a continuation chart pattern that looks like cup and handle with a defined resistance level at the top of the cup.
It forms from a strong drive up that pulled back and consolidated over a period of time creating the cup before making another push to the resistance where it pulls back again but not as far creating the handle and then makes it final push past the resistance level and continuing on the trend.
How To Trade A Cup and Handle Pattern
To trade using a cup and handle strategy, place your stop buy order a little higher than the handle’s upper trend line. Your order will only execute if the price breaks through the pattern’s resistance.
As an alternative you can wait for the price to close higher than the handle’s upper trend line, and then place a limit buy order a little bit lower than the breakout level for the pattern, which will execute if the price retraces.
However, you will face the risk of missing the trade if the price fails to pullback and continues to advance uninterrupted.
💫Useful tips:
The ideal cup pattern should not be too deep. Avoid patterns with handles that are too deep as well, since the handles should be forming somewhere in the cup pattern’s top half.
The volume should be decreasing as the price declines, and then stay lower than the average seen in the base of the cup. The price should increase as the security starts to move higher toward the previous high.
The retest at the end of the cup pattern does not need to directly reach the previous high, but the further the top of the handle is from the old high, the less significant the breakout from the handle’s bottom may be.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
"agreement in principle" to raise the $31.4trillion debt ceilingBitcoin (BTC) price is up 2%, with the rest of the crypto market flashing green in what can easily be assumed to be a weekend rally. However, the capital inflow comes after US President Joe Biden and Republican Kevin McCarthy reached the "agreement in principle" to raise the federal government's multi-trillion dollar debt ceiling.
Bitcoin capital inflow as US President urges House, Senate to pass debt ceiling deal right away
Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a capital inflow after United States President Joe Biden and Republican Kevin McCarthy reportedly reached an "agreement in principle" to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
The development comes amid burgeoning concerns of a potential default by early June. However, the two leaders had a 90-minute phone call four days before the new month (May 27), reaching a tentative agreement to raise the federal government's multi-trillion dollar debt ceiling, Reuters reports, citing two sources close to the matter.
According to Biden, the agreement will prevent the US from facing a "catastrophic default," adding that the deal would go to the US House and Senate "over the next day." Nevertheless, the head of state has urged both chambers to "pass the agreement right away."
House Speaker and Republican Kevin McCarthy has confirmed the agreement in a Twitter post, blaming Biden for "wasted time and refused to negotiate for months."
My simple 1 minute strategy (tutorial) My super simple 1m chart hyper scalping strategy that has been killing it for the last couple of weeks .. enjoy.
Whats up gold gang .. thought id hop on here with a tutorial on how i trade my key levels on the 1 min chart.
Firstly, this is a no bias strategy .. so we can take buys or sells depending how price reacts at the levels. High volume is a must here so around market opens is best.
1. Let price hit the key level.
2. if price is breaking through, wait for a 1 min candle to close and enter in that direction.
3. 10 pip TP 10 pip SL (or as close to the top of the previous candle as possible)
4. SL to BE if you like and hold for runners to target. I like to come out fully at 1:1
5. reversals .. price must print a candle in the opposite direction engulfing the previous. Enter on the break of the previous. 1:1
thats it. Super simple. It sounds dumb and too good to be true but i have been collecting the data and its working so far. I cant post a chart example on the 1m time frame to show you but ill post elsewhere so you can see.
Try it yourselves with low lot sizes and see how it works for you. If not, you can trade the way i normally do waiting for 30m candles to close in the zones.
Have a great holiday weekend .. please like this and comment if you need further help. Dont forget to follow along for constant XAUUSD updates
tommy
📈How to Day Trade with Trend: Accumulation📍The accumulation stage in trading refers to a period when market participants are accumulating a particular asset, typically with the expectation of a future price increase. During this phase, the price of the asset tends to range between two significant levels known as support and resistance. Traders closely observe these price levels as they provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the upcoming breakout.
📍Support and resistance levels are psychological and technical barriers that the price of an asset tends to respect.
🔹Support represents a price level where buying pressure is expected to outweigh selling pressure, causing the price to "bounce" or reverse its downward movement.
🔹Resistance represents a price level where selling pressure is expected to exceed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse its upward movement.
📍During the accumulation stage, the price of the asset oscillates within a range defined by these support and resistance levels. Market participants who believe in the potential upside of the asset accumulate it by buying at or near the support level. As the price approaches the resistance level, some traders start to take profits or sell their holdings, creating selling pressure that prevents the price from advancing further. This creates a cyclical pattern of price movement between the support and resistance levels, resulting in a range-bound market.
It's important to note that the accumulation stage and subsequent breakout are not always easy to predict. False breakouts, where the price briefly moves beyond a support or resistance level but quickly reverse
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Stop Losses: A Trader's Best DefenseIn a perfect world, every trade would go our way, but alas this is usually not the case. A stop loss is a risk management tool used by traders and investors to minimize their losses when trading. It is a predetermined price level at which a trader's position will automatically exit the market, causing the loss to be realized. Stop losses are crucial to any trading strategy, as they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. In this blog, we will look at what stop losses are, why they are important, how to set realistic stop losses, and five different examples of stop losses with a description of how to set the stop loss.
What are Stop Losses?
A stop loss is an order to sell a security when it reaches a particular price. It is a predetermined price level at which a trader's position will automatically exit the market, causing the loss to be realized. This means that if the price of the security falls to the stop loss level, the trader's position is automatically closed, and any losses incurred are limited to that level. Stop losses are essential because they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined.
Why are Stop Losses Important?
Stop losses are important because they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. In trading, it is easy to become emotional and let your losses run. Stop losses help traders avoid this situation by automatically exiting the market when the price reaches a predetermined level. This ensures that losses are limited, and traders can move on to the next trade without being emotionally affected by the previous loss.
Setting Realistic Stop Losses
Setting realistic stop losses is crucial to any trading strategy. A trader needs to consider the volatility of the security, the trading style, and the risk-reward ratio when setting stop losses. The stop loss should be set at a level where the loss is acceptable but not too close to the current price level, as this may result in the stop loss being triggered prematurely. A stop loss should also not be set too far away from the current price level, as this may result in the trader losing more than they are willing to risk.
Stop Loss Examples
Below we will list five examples of setting effective stop losses. For consistency, we are going to use the same long stop loss example, but these same examples can be set for stop losses for short positions as well.
Percentage-Based Stop Loss: A percentage-based stop loss is a stop loss that is set at a specific percentage below the purchase price. For example, if a trader wants to place a long at $0.088602 and sets a 0.5% stop loss, the stop loss would be triggered at $0.88160. For a short stop loss at 0.5%, you would add the value instead and have a 0.89035 stop loss. To set a percentage-based stop loss, the trader needs to determine the percentage they are willing to risk and place the stop loss order at that level.
ATR-Based Stop Loss: An ATR-based stop loss is a stop loss that is set based on the average true range of the security. The average true range is a measure of volatility and is calculated by taking the average of the high and low prices for a particular period. To set an ATR-based stop loss, the trader needs to determine the number of ATRs they are willing to risk and place the stop loss order at that level. For a long stop loss, you would subtract the ATR times its multiplier from the current price. For a short-stop loss, you would add the ATR times its multiplier to the current price. The unique upside to this stop-loss style is the ATR accounts for market volatility which can aid your risk management and help set more appropriate stop losses.
Using Moving Averages or Super Trend: Moving averages and super trend are technical indicators that can be used to set stop losses. Moving averages are calculated by taking the average price over a specific period, while the super trend is a trend-following indicator that uses the average true range to calculate the stop loss level. To set a stop loss using moving averages or super trend, the trader needs to identify the period and place the stop loss order at the appropriate level. The Moving Average or Supertrend can then act as a moving stop loss as it trails the price.
1. Moving Average:
2. SuperTrend:
Donchian Channels: Donchian channels are a technical indicator that can be used to set stop losses. Donchian channels are created by taking the highest high and lowest low over a specific period and plotting them on a chart. To set a stop loss using Donchian channels, the trader needs to identify the period and place the stop loss order at the appropriate level. In the example below we use a more standard 20-period Donchian level to identify areas of lowest low interest that would be a good place for a stop loss. If we were setting a short order we would look to recent highest highs as potential stop-loss areas
Conclusion
Stop losses are crucial to any trading strategy, as they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. When setting stop losses, traders need to consider the volatility of the security, the trading style, and the risk-reward ratio. Stop losses can be set using many different techniques, including percentage-based, ATR-based, using moving averages or super trend, and Donchian channels. By setting realistic stop losses, traders can minimize their losses and stay disciplined, which is essential for long-term success in trading.
My A+ Trade Set Up when trading XAUUSD (Educational)Whats up gold gang! .. thought id drop in to show you how i enter my trades when they enter my zones. I set alerts here on trading view, then when price is approaching my zone, i get to the computer and lock in
Im looking for a clean break into the zone with a strong candle on the 15/30/1h
That candle must close
Next candle to open and do a small pull back to create a wick. This says to me no buying pressure is present.
Entry on the flip of the candle and break of previous candle
Target is placed.
Stop loss above previous candle high. Anything above that is invalid.
Of course i do things to manage risk and increase reward as the trade is moving, but they are personal to me. You will all have your own risk parameters im sure.
Thats it gang .. very simple, but as you can see .. very effective.
My zones work on any strategy, you could us smart money concepts, fibs, support resistance etc .. they will all work with my directional bias.
Hope this was helpful .. leave a like if it was and follow along for more XAUUSD updates
tommyXAU
Price Channels — Quick and Easy Guide.Greetings, @TradingView community!
When it comes to analyzing market trends, there's a technique that takes trend theory to the next level: price channels.
This is @Vestinda, bringing you a helpful article on the topic of the price channels, also known as trend channels, offer an exciting way to identify optimal buying and selling opportunities in the market.
Price channels serve as a valuable tool in technical analysis, helping traders determine favorable entry and exit points. By drawing parallel lines that align with the angle of an uptrend or downtrend, we create a channel. The upper trend line acts as resistance, while the lower trend line represents support. These lines highlight potential areas where the market could experience reversals or continue its current trend.
Understanding the sentiment of a price channel is crucial. Channels with a positive slope (upward) are considered bullish, indicating an upward trend, while those with a negative slope (downward) are bearish, pointing to a downward trend. Recognizing the slope of a price channel allows traders to gauge the prevailing market conditions and make informed trading decisions.
Price channels can be categorized into three main types:
Ascending channels
Descending channels
Horizontal channels
Ascending channels display higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bullish sentiment. To create an ascending channel, draw a parallel line touching the most recent peak, aligning it with the angle of the uptrend line.
Conversely, descending channels exhibit lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish sentiment. To create a descending channel, draw a parallel line touching the most recent valley, aligning it with the angle of the downtrend line
Horizontal channels , also known as ranging channels, indicate a consolidation phase with no clear trend direction.
These channels provide insights into potential buying zones when prices hit the lower trend line and selling zones when prices approach the upper trend line. Understanding these channel types empowers traders to adapt their strategies to different market scenarios.
Constructing a price channel requires parallelism between the trend lines. The lower trend line is typically considered a "buy zone," while the upper trend line serves as a "sell zone." It's crucial not to force price action into the drawn channels. When the channel boundaries slope at different angles, the pattern is no longer a price channel but a triangle pattern, requiring a distinct analytical approach.
Remember that price channels don't have to be flawlessly parallel. In reality, it's rare to find price action that perfectly aligns within two trend lines.
As traders, it's important not to solely rely on textbook price patterns but also consider broader market context and other essential cues from price action. Effective price channel analysis involves embracing imperfections and making informed decisions based on the available information.
In conclusion, price channels provide traders with a powerful technique to uncover profitable opportunities in the market. By drawing parallel trend lines and identifying support and resistance levels, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and enhance their trading decisions.
However, it's essential to remember that perfection isn't the goal. Instead, focus on understanding market dynamics and adapting your strategy accordingly.
💜 So there you have it - a quick and easy guide to understanding price channels in trading! 💜
Introducing the Dual Dynamic Fibonacci Retracement IndicatorHey there, Stock Justice here. Today, I walked you through using the Dual Dynamic Fibonacci Retracement Levels Indicator on TradingView. This powerful tool calculates pivot points and determines Fibonacci retracement levels based on your position in the market. I explored every input, from lookback periods to toggling extra levels, to shifting and extending lines. We also delved into the use of two sets of Fibonacci levels to identify areas of confluence for more robust trading decisions. With vivid colors marking each retracement level and the flexibility to modify the lookback period, this indicator is a game-changer for pinpointing support, resistance, potential reversals, and continuations. Remember, the magic is in the details. Happy trading!
Introducing the Responsive Supply and Demand IndicatorIn this comprehensive tutorial, Stock Justice offers an insightful walkthrough of the enhanced Supply and Demand Indicator. We delve into the tool's advanced features, demonstrating its capacity to identify pivot points across multiple timeframes, its customization options, and ways to interpret its outputs. The video provides valuable guidance on how to navigate the settings of this powerful tool, from plotting circles and lines to adjusting the number of ranges to be analyzed. By the end of this tutorial, users will better understand how to utilize the Supply and Demand Indicator to optimize their trading strategy and make more informed decisions.
Ichimoku Target Price Theory V, N, E and NT CalculationsTHE BASICS:
Here is a close up of the Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō indicator:
Many people do not know that the Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō cloud system has its own Number, Wave, Target Price and Timespan Theories. After years of study, the numbers that Goichi Hosoda choose for his system are 9, 17, 26 as the basic numbers with 33, 42, 65, 76, 129 and 200~257. These numbers are used in the timespan as well as on the indicator itself.
9 is used for the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen)
26 is used for the Base Line (Kijun Sen)
26 is also used for the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) and is used to shift the current price back 26 periods. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is an exceptional part of the system and allows you to see possible support and resistance levels without drawing any lines.
The Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) is calculated using the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) and Base Line (Kijun Sen) values and is then plotted 26 periods into the future and shows potential future support and resistance levels.
The Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) is calculated using double of 26 so 52 periods and is then and is then plotted 26 periods into the future. This also shows potential future support and resistance levels.
Note that:
The Area ABOVE the cloud is called the BULLISH ZONE.
The Area BELOW the cloud is called the BEARISH ZONE.
The Area IN BETWEEN the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) and Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) levels is called the EQUILIBRIUM ZONE.
Note that the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) and Base Line (Kijun Sen) ARE NOT MOVING AVERAGES but are instead calculated high and low midpoints of the price. So the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is high and low calculated midpoint for the last 9 Periods (short-term) and the Base Line (Kijun Sen) is high and low calculated midpoint for the last 26 Periods (mid-term).
THE ADVANCED:
Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Target Price Theory with examples:
How accurate is Goichi Hosoda’s Target Price Theory? Using the history of the DJI/USD chart….. it turns out the calculation are very accurate.
Note that i have added in timespans from Hosoda’s numbers to see if there is a day of change on the Ichimoku numbers 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129 and 200~257. Note that you can be flexible with these numbers so if a day of change is 8 days instead of 9 or 77 days instead of 76 then that is fine with this system.
Ichimoku System has 4 Price Target Calculations called V, N, E and NT. A few of these we will see below. As you’ll see below, the calculations do change if they are POSITIVE or NEGATIVE.
If we look at the Positive N Calculation from the Monday 3rd August 1896 until Monday 6th sept 1897 we can see that it was spot on.
N Calculation positive
N = C + (B-A) = D
(B) $32.55 - (A) $20.77 = $11.79
(C) $27.79 + (B-A) $11.78 = (D) $39.57
The actual price it went to was $40.41
If we look at the above Negative V Calculation from the Monday 29th Sept 1929 until Monday 5th sept 1931 we can see that again, the calculation was spot on.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $302 - (B) $194 = $108
(B) $194 - (C-B) $108 = (D) $86
The actual price it went to was $85.76 and continued to $40.72
If we look at this Negative N Calculation from the Monday 9th November 1931 until Monday 30th May 1932 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
N Calculation Negative
N = C - (A-B) = D
(A) $118.86 - (B) $69.85 = $48.75
(C) $89.87 - (C-B) $48.75 = (D) $41.12
Actual = $43.52 and continued to $40.72
If we look at the Positive V Calculation from Monday 4th July 1932 until Monday 17th July 1933 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
V Calculation Positive
V = B + (B-C) = D
(B) $81.63 - (C) $48.81 = $32.82
(B) $81.63 + (C-B) $32.82 = (D) $114.45
Actual = $110.90
If we look at the Negative V Calculation from Monday 4th Nov 1940 until Monday 13th April 1942 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $131 - (B) $114 = $17
(B) $114 - (C-B) $17 = (D) $97
Actual = $92.60
If we look at the Positive NT Calculation from Monday 23rd March 2020 until Monday 10th May 2021 we can see that again, it was spot on.
NT Calculation Positive
NT = C + (C-A)
(C) $26,114 - (A) $18,217 = $7,897
(C) $26,114 + (C-A) $7,897 = $34,011
Actually price went up to $36,971 which was until Monday 3rd Jan 2022.
If we look at the Negative V Calculation from Monday 12th Dec 2022 until Monday 13th March 2023 we can see that again, it was close but off from about $600 but still would’ve made a profit.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $34,344 - (B) $32,582 = $1,762
(B) $32,582 - (C-B) $1,762 = (D) $30,820
Actual price went to = $31,428
I have done these examples on the 1 week chart but this system also work for lower timeframes. I could go through and add much more calculations but i think you get the point with just these few. I hope this post has been helpful and insightful.
For those interested, below are 2 links to my previous post about Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō that you may find helpful.
Ichimoku Wave Theory:
Ichimoku Crypto:
📊 6 Examples of Rejections at S/R Areas📍Support and Resistance 101
Support and resistance are two foundational concepts in technical analysis. Understanding what these terms mean and their practical application is essential to correctly reading price charts. Prices move because of supply and demand. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Sometimes, prices will move sideways as both supply and demand are in equilibrium. Like many concepts in technical analysis, the explanation and rationale behind technical concepts are relatively easy, but mastery in their application often takes years of practice. S/R level areas can develop inside different candlestick patterns as well as trend trading patterns. The Resistance being the top of the pattern and the support being the bottom of it.
🔹Technical analysts use support and resistance levels to identify price points on a chart where the probabilities favor a pause or reversal of a prevailing trend.
🔹Support occurs where a downtrend is expected to pause due to a concentration of demand.
🔹Resistance occurs where an uptrend is expected to pause temporarily, due to a concentration of supply.
🔹Market psychology plays a major role as traders and investors remember the past and react to changing conditions to anticipate future market movement.
🔹Support and resistance areas can be identified on charts using trendlines and moving averages as well as different types of patterns.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
How to Measure the Strength of a Candlestick?
Hey traders,
There are multiple different ways to measure the strength of the market reversal from a key level:
✔️some traders apply volumes and look for its sudden spike as a confirmation,
✔️some traders rely on some indicators and look for a particular trigger there as the signal,
✔️some traders, like me, follow the candlesticks and make their judgments based on the candle's strength.
In this article, I prepared for you a candlestick strength meter that will help you to accurately spot the reversal clues.
❗️Remember about the important precondition:
that candlestick meter is reliable being applied ONLY on key levels.
Trading that outside key levels is not recommendable.
📈The initial touch of a key level is very telling:
after a sharp bullish / bearish rally to key resistance/support the reaction of the price on that can indicate you the strength of the identified level.
There are three main classifications of the reversal candle momentum:
*by reversal candle we mean the first bullish candle on key support or the first bearish candle on key resistance.
1️⃣The momentum will be considered to be low in case if the reversal candle will close within the range of the previous candle.
It indicates the weakness of bulls buying from support / bears selling from resistance.
You should patiently WAIT for some other signal before you open the trade.
2️⃣The momentum will be considered to be medium in case if the reversal candle will engulf the range of the previous candle.
It shows quite a strong initial reaction being sufficient to open the trade ONLY in a strict combination with some other signal.
3️⃣The momentum will be considered to be high in case if the reversal candle engulfs the range of the last two candles (two bearish or two bullish ).
By itself, it is considered to be a strong reversal signal.
The trading position can be opened just based on such a candle.
Among the dozens of different candlestick pattern formations, I believe that momentum candles are one of the most reliable in spotting the market reversal.
Learn to spot these candles and you will be surprised how accurate they are.
What candlestick pattern formations do you want to learn in the next post?🤓
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
$BTCUSD SOPR, BFX Longs and Shorts, Greed, Liquidations.
This is one of the multi-chart evolving dashboards I use daily for crypto trading. This dashboard attempts to distill a broad scope of data and sentiment into glance value charts. The goal with such dashboards is to seek to stack probabilities to be on the right side of the percentages in every trade.
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The top panel chart shows the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio, (grey line, using the symbol $BTC_SOPR) overlay vs $BTCUSDT (Binance, in blue). The SOPR is a very simple indicator. It is the spent outputs expressed as a ratio and shown as an oscillator on the chart. The Bitcoin SOPR is the realised dollar value divided by the dollar value at creation of the output. Or simply: price sold divided by price paid.
SOPR showing under value 1 means that the on chain data has recorded a net realised loss for "spent" Bitcoin. SOPR showing over value 1 means net profit. Renato Shirakashi appears to be the inventor of SOPR for BTC, and he writes about SOPR: "In this analysis two important psychological turning points that significantly change the supply of bitcoin are going to be described by introducing a new oscillating indicator that signals when these major supply changes occur, using blockchain data." I interpret this reference to the psychology of "weak hands" getting flushed out of the market by selling at a loss as shown when SOPR sits below 1 for extended periods of time (bear), and when all the weak hands have left the market, we find a bottom.
Because I am an impatient learner, I needed further examples to understand fully. If someone sells you 1 Bitcoin at $50,000USD, that transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you then sell it for $25,000USD, that is now a spent output which is obviously a negative 0.5 ratio, and would contribute to a SOPR lower than the value 1. Interestingly the SOPR tends to be very close to the value 1 nearly always. Which means that the aggregated data of all spent outputs is nowhere near as extreme as the example I gave (although I'm sure there are plenty of retail traders who bought the high and sold the bottom at a 50% loss).
If we rewind to extended periods of low points in the SOPR ratio, extended negative ratio periods coincide with low points. In the past 5 years the lowest ratio was around 0.88, which was December 2018, when the price of Bitcoin was heading lower than $4k USD. That particularly brutal bear market lasted 18 months and you can see that the SOPR was below value 1 for nearly the entire time, indicating that there was a long tail of weak hands realising losses the entire time.
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Also present on the top chart is a brilliant little free indicator called Liq.Levels , wtf is all I can say, this a masterpiece of long/short liquidation data based on market maker behaviour in this case Binance's perpetual BTC/USDT leveraged futures (one of the most active retail leverage platforms). On this layout I have hidden all but the 25x liquidation points both short and long as it captures the widest spread and for the simplest visual as this is a glance-dashboard, on a single panel layout you can view the 50x and 100x which are tighter spreads. Liq.Levels also filters for a minimum of one million USD, so this is real value the market makers are getting out of bed for, essentially these levels are where the market maker really wants to push the price to. If you're new to leverage (don't do it! just buy at spot!), the reason they do this is to hunt the longs and the shorts and cause maximum liquidations (are you still trading with leverage?!).
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The second panel is the famous Bitfinex Longs (green) and Shorts (red) . You can see currently the longs, since around the $39000 level went parabolic. The shorts are just tiny in comparison. The data from Bitfinex seems less erratic than those from other exchanges, so if you find looking at longs and shorts ratios useful, I'd suggest also looking at other websites to see the other major exchange long and short activity, liquidations, and ratios.
This info is used to monitor large moves by leveraged traders. While Bitfinex is not the best measure here (ideally you would want all major exchanges aggregated longs vs shorts, but I have not found such indicators on TV, only Bitfinex), you can check the data by comparing it to another exchange, for example Binance you can see that parabolic move the Longs made from the 11th of July to around the 14th of July (while the BTC price fell off a cliff from $30k to $20k), where the ratio of Longs vs Shorts on Binance also skewed heavily to the Long side.
This is another way to stack a probability. As the Longs level off and get flushed out (usually by mass liquidation!), this is another variable to find support or resistance. For example you can see the levelling off around 12 May 2022, Bitcoin's price found a short term bottom at $29k. Similarly and most recently you can see as the Longs levelled off from a hectic run up in the mid June 2022 selloff, the price found a short term bottom around $20k. You could say that recently or commonly this is a contrarian indicator, assuming that smart money is seeking to liquidate the maximum possible leveraged positions, so we can assume that generally these leveraged retail traders will largely make incorrect bets most of the time, hence historically as soon as Shorts leave the market, the price spikes up, and vice versa. So, another thing to watch.
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Next we have a Crypto Fear & Greed Index , which as you can see nearly always oscillates in a tight rhythm with Bitcoin's price action. Above 75 (green dotted line) is extreme greed, below 25 (red dotted line) extreme fear. There are quite a few websites that attempt to measure crypto Fear & Greed, and even a variety of different indicators on TradingView, but this was the clearest visually I could find here. The inputs on this version according to the coder are stable coin flows (flight to safety), coin momentum (top 18 coin price relative to 30 day averages), and top 18 coin price high over the previous 90 days. So, it's interesting that despite this being at face value a rather complicated set of data with many inputs, that it just looks like a carbon copy of the Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin has a gravity that is inescapable for all things crypto right now.
The difference between looking at this indicator and simply looking at Bitcoin's chart is that it flattens out the action and has a set floor and a ceiling. You can see historically that the best buy times were when fear was at its "height" (where the yellow line is at its lowest). Another way to stack probabilities. At time of writing, is this a great time to buy? Fear appears to be leaving the market, we haven't had a commensurate price move up, so I'd be cautious. Like all these indicators, you can just overlay Bitcoin's price line and backtest the correlation in a few seconds. Buying when fear is at a maximum is usually easier said than done, though!
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Lastly we have Liquidations by Volume , as per the coder this "shows actual liquidations on a per-candle basis by using the difference in volume between spot and futures markets." Blue line is futures volumes, yellow are spot volumes. The code for this indicator shows that it is the same BTCUSDT Perpetual Future's contract from Binance that we have in the Liq.Levels indicator, perfect.
Worth noting is that the community of coders at TradingView is a trader's dream. These sorts of customisable dashboards you can build are high value. Having worked for the largest international institutions I find many of these indicators are institutional grade and they have just a few hundred users sometimes, pretty crazy how early in the adoption curve we are with this. If you haven't experienced the "other side" of trading, compared to regular equities forex futures etc the TradingView tools and the crypto data and exchanges are just lightyears ahead.
Back to why look at liquidations? As institutions come into the market, and retail wallets on exchanges like Binance and many others continue to use leverage, the action in the derivative (in this case $BTCUSDTPERP) can and often does drive the price of the underlying. Market makers hunt the maximum liquidations, always. The market context is highly relevant here. During volatile periods it is a swinging contrarian indicator. If there has been massive green bars showing short liquidations pushing the price up, then we could be forming/hitting resistance levels and can see reversal/selloffs, and vice versa if there are massive red bars showing long liquidations pushing the price down, this can be hammering out support levels and we look to bounce. The longs and the shorts really do seem to be taking turns getting liquidated right now.
Also of relevance is the price action relative to the liquidations. Obviously if an institutional candle pushes the price up or down, there will be mass liquidations. But another scenario that occurs is when are light volumes on the derivatives such as $BTCUSDTPERP we have under the microscope here, but we have large Bitcoin price movements, then the reasons for the move can be understood differently, and we can use this and other contexts to draw conclusions such as for example a scenario where price goes up with light liquidations and derivative action, which could be interpreted as much stronger hands holding coins rather than simply margin calls.
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Good luck!
TommyXAU Educational - What i mean by clean rangeGood afternoon gold gang, hope you're having a good weekend.
I thought id hop on to share with you a piece of information of what i mean by clean range. Ok ..
Say you have 2 key levels in price .. we have had a big news event causing a big red candle to the left hand side. This has left what is called an imbalance. An imbalance is where the wicks of the previous and after candle don't meet. Backtest that one yourself and see how many times these imbalances get filled.
Price is coming back up and closes above the key level .. it is now a high probability that price will come up and fill that imbalance and the clean range.
I call it clean as there is no traffic or hurdles that should stop price on its way up. Again, adding to the probability.
Simple as that really guys ..
Please leave a like if it was of any help to you and ill see you this evening for market open!
TommyXAU