The Art of Technical Analysis for Beginners part 1Hey Traders so today I wanted to make a brief tutorial on technical analysis for those who are new to trading. This will be a short series that gives you the tools to understand the charts without any indicators ever needed. This analysis can be applied to all markets Stocks, Forex, Commodities, Crypto etc...
Be on the lookout for future videos in the series and I hope it helps those who are new to trading!
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Technical Analysis
CONFLUENCE TRADING | YOUR KEY TO ACCURATE ENTRIES 🥇
If you are struggling with the identification of accurate trading entries,
you definitely should try confluence zones .
Note: there are hundreds of variations of confluence elements.
In this example, we will discuss trend lines and fibonnachi.
❗️To identify a confluence zone, the price must follow a trend line
(it should match higher lows if the market is bullish;
it should match lower highs if the market is bearish).
Once the trend line is confirmed by at least two touches and consequent reactions ,
you can look for a confluence zone.
1️⃣Project a trend line and identify the next POTENTIAL touchpoint of the market with a trend line.
2️⃣Take the last impulse in the direction of the trend.
Draw a fib retracement based on it
(swing low to swing high in case if the market is bullish,
swing high to swing low in case if the market is bearish).
3️⃣Take the previous impulse (it must be in the same direction as the initial one).
Draw a fib retracement based on it.
4️⃣Look for a match of retracement levels of the last two impulses and a projected trend line.
In case if two retracement fib.levels & trend line match, you found a confluence point.
5️⃣ Apply it as a safe entry point.
You will get a perfect trend following opportunity.
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Our Favorite Way To Set Take Profit Orders/Levels Typically, most traders have no idea how or where to set their take profit orders on any given trade. Most inexperienced traders will choose a risk/reward ratio and set their take profit based on a specific ratio. For example. The trader defines where their stop loss order will be, then drags their take profit up until it says "Risk/Reward = 3". Determining your take profit order/level based on this provides the trader with no increase in profitability/edge, and we call this gambling.
Generally, the first thing the trader should be doing is setting their stop loss prior to determining the take profit. The stop loss is one of the most important factors to consider that can have a dramatic affect on how profitable your strategy will be. After the stop loss has been determined, assuming we want to go long, the first thing to identify that will aid in determining the take profit price/order is, identifying where key levels of resistance are as well as pivots.
We have found that in the markets, one should never assume the market will break past a specific resistance/pivot. Although it may happen, your take profit should never be at the mercy of the pivot blocking price. With that being said, the trader should ensure their take profit is not beyond the nearest pivot/resistance to increase profitability. For example, if price just broke resistance and is retracing back down for a retest as support, to get the highest profitability/success rate, we recommend to ensure your take profit is slightly below the pivot just above the support, which the price is retracing from. A trader could attempt to take the trade further beyond the first initial pivot/resistance, to increase net profit for the given trade, however, the trader needs to understand that doing this requires close monitoring of the trade to identify rejections at the pivot. Based on our research/back-testing, it is a viable option for traders to try to extend the take profit beyond the first pivot/resistance as long as the trader is monitoring the trade closely. Some of the things that the trader should be looking out for is, a bearish rejection off the first pivot, signifying that price may return to the support/entry price. Based on our research, roughly 39+% of the time, the trader can expect the first pivot/resistance to breakout with high volume and a large candle, which can then be used to extend the take profit if managed properly.
Ensuring that both your take profit and stop loss are placed/managed methodically will greatly increase profitability based on statistics.
Technical Analysis 101: Support and Resistance In this video I cover the basics of the support and resistance levels and how to chart it out, If you enjoyed this video please like it and share it with your friends. Also please drop a comment, feedback, suggestion for me to cover or just to work on, and that would be much appreciated. Next video I'll cover the Fibonacci retracement and extension to plot targets. So we covered the trend lines and support and resistance levels, so please practice with those and send me charts if you need someone to look over it! As the main goal is for all of us to learn from each other and become better chartist and traders!
Trading Basics Part 1:How Candlesticks Work!
Hello,Traders!
Japanese Candlesticks are thought to have been invented by the Japanese rice traders
And then made their way into the West where they were used for stocks, forex and commodity trading.
Reading candlesticks is quite easy: the body represents an area that indicates the price distance between the open and close of the candle, while wick’s ends indicate the full magnitude of the movement in-between open and close. Thus, when picking the timeframe for your chart, you are deciding on how much time will be contained between open and close of each candle.
If open is below the close, the candle is bullish, and if open is above the close, the candle is bearish, which is usually represented by different colors of the bodies and wicks on the chart, typically, green and red.
Some of you might ask me, why am I explaining things that seems to be obvious and self evident, yet my experience of Coaching, paints a different picture, with the candlesticks being undervalued and misunderstood by many, despite them being the staple of technical analysis.
In my trading strategy, which is based on multi timeframe top-down technical analysis,
we examine multiple timeframes, from 1 week to 1 hour, going from higher to the lower timeframes. Looking for strong levels on weekly and daily and for patterns and confirmations on 4 hour and 1 hour charts. Which means that we are opening 1 week/1 day candle like a Russian doll, finding multiple candles inside the other. We enter the trade only if we are getting the same bias on all timeframes that were of our interest!
If you found my post helpful and interesting, please, like comment and subscribe!
Thank you!
Risk FreeManaging positions is one of the most important things
in trading. You need to know when to place a position risk
free and when to place your S.l. in profit. I always put
my positions risk-free when the trend breaks a key level.
From there, I change my S.l. every time the price keep
pushing
📚Reversal Patterns - How To Identify & Trade Them 📚
Though, there is a wide variety of reversal price action patterns.
Here is the list of the classic ones that you must know if you trade technical analysis.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward/downward trend is nearing its end.
The Head and Shoulders pattern has a distinctive appearance which includes a distinct ‘left shoulder’, ‘head’, ‘right shoulder’ and ‘neckline’ formation.
A double top/bottom is an extremely bearish/bullish price action reversal pattern that forms after a price reaches a high/low two consecutive times with a moderate fluctuation between the two highs/lows. It is confirmed once the price falls below/above a neckline level.
Ascending/descending triangle is a classic reversal pattern. It signifies the exhaustion of the market. The price sets a sequence of higher lows / lower high and respects the same highs/lows signifying a highly probable forthcoming trend reverse.
The reversal trigger is a breakout of a horizontal neckline.
Do you find these patterns reliable?
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📚Reversal Patterns - How To Identify & Trade Them 📚
Though, there is a wide variety of reversal price action patterns.
Here is the list of the classic ones that you must know if you trade technical analysis.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward/downward trend is nearing its end.
The Head and Shoulders pattern has a distinctive appearance which includes a distinct ‘left shoulder’, ‘head’, ‘right shoulder’ and ‘neckline’ formation.
A double top/bottom is an extremely bearish/bullish price action reversal pattern that forms after a price reaches a high/low two consecutive times with a moderate fluctuation between the two highs/lows. It is confirmed once the price falls below/above a neckline level.
Ascending/descending triangle is a classic reversal pattern. It signifies the exhaustion of the market. The price sets a sequence of higher lows / lower high and respects the same highs/lows signifying a highly probable forthcoming trend reverse.
The reversal trigger is a breakout of a horizontal neckline.
Do you find these patterns reliable?
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Useful FOREX TRADING STRATEGY FOREX TRADING STRATEGY with 20MA & chandelier Stop by TIZ
The BWAB Trading Strategy (LONG SETUP)
- Market is in a range (80 candles or more)
- The price approach the highs of Resistance and forms a tight consolidation (buildup)
- The 20 MA touches the low of the buildup
- Place a buy stop order above the highs with 3 ATR trailing stop loss ( chandelier Stop )
The BWAB Trading Strategy (SHORT SETUP)
- Market is in a range (80 candles or more)
- The price approach the lows of support and forms a tight consolidation (buildup)
- The 20 MA touches the highs of the buildup
- Place a buy stop order below the lows with 3 ATR trailing stop loss ( chandelier Stop )
The BWAB Trading Strategy (SHORT SETUP)
Chandelier Stop settings = Trailing stop loss
Look Back perio = 1
ATR Period = 22
ATR Multiplier = 3
The chandelier stop offers a logical possibility to set the stop loss. The sl is very tight.
Epistemology of Technical AnalysisHow does the reliability of technical analysis relate to our understanding of it as a total population?
Epistemology is a branch of philosophy that examines the nature of knowledge -- its presuppositions and foundations, and its extent and validity. The word epistemology is derived from the ancient Greek epistēmē, meaning "knowledge", and the suffix -logia, meaning "logical discourse." Epistemologists study the nature, origin, and scope of knowledge. Simply stated, epistemology is "meaning-making."
Epistemology presupposes metaphysics. People tend to think of psychology as being the foundation for technical analysis , often without realizing that psychology arises out of, or is a subset of, philosophy. In other words, psychology is "a posteriori" to philosophy. Historically, psychology arose in order to include the empirical method when examining the metaphysical questions posed by philosophy. It has since brought various topics of study to the field of psychology, such as sensation, perception, intelligence, and memory.
At first glance, the relationship between philosophy and psychology seems to have a dualistic nature, and is reciprocal: Modern-day science believes that the "phyisical" (psychology) -- a brain -- creates the metaphyisical, and that the metaphysical (philosophy) -- a thought -- allows us to understand the physical. Phillosophers argue, however, that "no account of knowledge can proceed without assuming that we already have some sample or example of it, or of the way the world works;" If we already know something, then we already have some insight into reality. Similarly, no account of trading analytics can proceed successfully, according to presupposed rules, without some concensus to those rules.
My definition of technical analysis: A concensual set of rules for how to react to market stimuli. We can call TA a language, and it has rules akin to any other language. When we communicate through language, we operate by utilizing a concensual set of rules by which to respond to vocal stimuli. If two people try to communicate an idea to each other via divergent languages, the efficacy of communication is vastly diminished; consequently, if the market is being influenced by people who both DO know and DO NOT know technical analysis, the reliablity of our predictions for market trends is also vastly diminished.
I would argue that the implications of this are stronger this market cycle than ever before, due to the exponential rise in new traders unfamiliar with technical analysis , and that this offset in reliability is proportional to the total trading volume they supply to the market. At the same rate, "whales" who hold the largest crypto bags are likely to be the most familiar with TA, or have those working for them who are adept at TA, and therefore have a significant oppositional influence to those people aforementioned. It makes you wonder how many people have given their economic stimuli to the power elite already bankrolling with their COVID-era monopolies.
Stay safe out there. This is the most risky moment in the history of crypto for those of us with very little we can afford to lose.
The TrendThe Trend
The trend is directional movement of prices and it plays an important role in vast majority of technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending markets and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards and downwards. Upward moving market is called bull market, while downward moving market is called bear market. Market is generally considered to be in uptrend when price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, market is regarded to be in downtrend when price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. Non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend and price moves within certain range. Thus, flat trending market is notorious for its sideways moving price action.
Trend Clasiffication
Generally, trends tend to be of different lenghts. According to these lenghts, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend and intraday trend. Primary trend is only inviolate trend and it lasts for long period of time, usually for months or years. Secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, minor trend is measured in days, while intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
The Primary Trend
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary bull trend begins by revival of investor's confidence from the prior primary bear market. This is then followed by second phase in which asset prices increase as response to increased corporate earnings. Then finally, the third phase arises when speculation becomes dominant force driving markets higher. This phase, when asset prices are rising on hopes, dreams and expectations of individual investors tends to foreshadow beginning of the first phase of primary bear trend. This primary bear trend commences with abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. This is subsequently followed by selling pressure due to decreased corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third phase.
The Secondary Trend
The secondary trend is intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in the percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
The Minor and Intraday Trend
The minor trend lasts for few days or weeks, but always less than the secondary trend. It is difficultly identifiable than previous types of trends since its amplitude in the percentage terms is significantly less compared to the primary and secondary trend. Same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for few seconds up to the several hours. It represents daily changes in price action and is regarded to have least of predictive value.
Technical Formula for Understanding MARKET PSYCHOLOGYI lost a lot of money in Tehran Stock Exchange. Because simply I arrived too late. I read a lot in past year and now I can say why I lost a lot of money and how can prevent it in future.
It's simply the psychology of the market. Retailers like me get in when everybody says that something is good and profitable; Seriously Everybody!
Tonight I was thinking about a technical formula of analyzing market psychology to find better entries in markets and I came up with this.
There is 4 waves in every market/stock/digital coin/etc.
Wave Zero:
Smart money come here. It happen in things that are very cheap and nobody talks about them. Wealthy investors never buy expensive thing, remember!
On the chart you can se a slight rise in overall volume but price do not show a big rise. It respect the resistance. Price don't break it's prior resistance but the bottom price rises.
You can see higher lows in the chart but no higher high. Smart money controls the price and didn't buy a lot in one week. Because they don't want people get noticed yet. So they keep buying a long period but their positions sizes are low.
After buying 75% of their desired volume, they but the other 25% faster. So you can see a rise in price, higher highs and higher low and finally the breakout happens and first wave starts.
Wave One:
Obvious rise in price and volume but still not everybody knows. News agencies don't talk about it yet. The only group who find out are seasoned traders. They are going to buy in the pullback of this wave. So this wave has the shortest retracement. Because there is not a lot of rise in price and experienced traders have bigger money than retailers.
Wave Two:
This wave has the longest candles and biggest gain. Everybody is happy now and enjoy the profits. At the end of this wave news agencies start to talk about it. Gurus publish some analysis and say that it can go even higher. Slowly retailers getting noticed. But they are not confident about it yet.
Smart money starts to sell about 50% of it's positions. Because retailers don't have a lot of money it takes time for them to buy the pullback so we have a longer retracement than Wave One. Notice, smarter retailers come here and others just come when the Wave Three starts.
Wave Three:
This is Euphoria. People are exaggerating about the stock. They think it worth a lot higher and they think it can go to the moon. Here we see lower volumes than prior waves because in this stage retailers move price higher and they don't have a lot of money. Slowly sells rise. Volume keep rising but the price lose it's momentum and the candles getting short until red candles and dojis show up. BOOM! Smart money and the experienced traders start selling all of their stocks.
From here you can see price getting down and people get nervous. This is the real sign of down trend.
So summary:
How to find out where is smart money?
Go search cheap things in weekly timeframes. Find something that is consolidated and you can see a slight rise in overall volume. Price shows higher lows but no higher high; inside consolidation. It's not a good entry for retailers because price can stays here for months. There is no sound about this stock in market.
How to recognize first wave?
Obvious rise in price and volume. Price broke from a consolidation lately. Nobody noticed it yet; it's very important! Don't look in news and guru groups for good stocks/digital coins/etc because if they know we are not in first wave. A few knows about it and they are hopeful. It's Optimism phase. The last sign is that retracement doesn't last longer than 4-5 weeks. After breakout from top of wave one, buy the pullback to the broken resistance. It's the best entry for retailers.
When to sell?
When news start talking about your stock sell 50%. Highest candles, highest volume, longer pullback, people who have it are joyful and excited and non experts look for opportunities to buy the stock. These are signs of second wave. It's the excitement phase.
After another breakout from top the last wave starts. You can see retailers are super optimist about the stock. No bad News about the stock but you can see decreased volume. You can sell other 50% here. It's the Euphoria.
People who invest in long term can benefit from above explanation.
One last tip: traders who work with Elliott waves, the first wave is the first Elliott wave, the second one is the third Elliott wave and the last wave in my explanation is the fifth wave in Elliott theory.
Tell me if it helped you or you have other ways to recognize market psychology by technical analysis.
Popular Trading Indicators (Simply) ExplainedEvery full-time trader knows that rule number 1 in this business isn't to make money; rule number 1 is: don't lose money. Hence, any successful, long term trading strategy must inherently focus on managing risk. I know that lately the word risk carries next to no meaning, and that's because the more risk you take, the more you're rewarded, while those who manage their risk, and are potentilly risk averse in general, pay the price (in purchasing power terms). Having said that, in this context, trading with risk in mind is critical to following rule number 1, and it's essential to managing your risk exposure, and creating a sustainable, successful trading strategy.
Moving averages (MA):
Sifting through dozens of mathematical functions to help understand, and predict price action can be very challenging. But, having an understanding of why we use certain indicators is a great place to start. Let's begin by talking about MAs. The name is self-explanitory, of course, and it's not much more complicated than that. When we're looking at a MA, what we're seeing is an average of the price over a specified period of time. Now, you could say that using a 20 day simple MA is better than using a 21 day exponential MA (which places more emphasis on recent PA). But, this is a moot conversation, because we don't actually know what they mean until we explore what the MAs reveal for the timeframe being analyzed.
By knowing and focusing on industry standard MAs, we can see what larger institutional desks might be seeing, and those MAs include the 20 day MA (20DMA), 50 day MA (50DMA), 100 day MA (100DMA), and the 200 day MA (200DMA). When we apply these MAs across multiple timeframes to derive a thesis on price action, it all starts to make sense, and you can see these industry benchmarks being respected on the longer time frames, clearly. However, when you look at price action post 2008, it's almost as if the intraday MAs are seemingly ignored completely. The HFT EFT flows are so heavy and they distort price so drastically, imo it's a losing battle trying to day trade based on intraday MAs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The relative strength index (RSI) is a great momentum indicator used to gauge whether or not a financial instrument is overbought or oversold. It's analyzed as a line graph with a range of 0 to 1, the latter being the top of the range, with overbought conditions identified at a value of greater than 0.70, and oversold conditions being observed with a value of 0.30 or lower. These polar extremes often indicate that a reversal is about to occur.
Fibonacci Retracement (Fib):
The Fib is a very popular and is used to gauge the magnitude of a price retracement. For example, if a stock falls 25%, and then bounces hard on high demand, we could apply a Fib to benchmark the move against previous, similar moves. How the Fib works, is it uses a mathematical formula which adds the previous two number together to get the next. For example, starting at 0, the Fibonacci sequence is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.. Within the Fib indicator, there are 5 key levels to watch after you've applied the 0 and 1 ranges to your price move, which includes the 0.236, 0.382, 0.5 (not officially included but useful), the 0.618, and finally the 0.786. Typically, I divide the asset price by the money supply (M2), to find tradable Fib levels (a lot of price distortion currently as I mentioned).
Volume:
When the price of an underlying security changes, what we're witnessing is the demand and supply (discovery) process. While this does tell us a lot, volume tells us the power of the move, and hence also the weakness of a move. For example, when we're seeing price rise as volume falls, the power of the move is diminishing, therefore it tells us that the move/trend could be nearing exhaustion. Placed together with other indicators that may also be flashing "red" could help us make better, and more informed decisions. In forex, however, volume points to the number of price changes which occured within the specified time interval. This is a bit different than stock or bond price volume, but essentially speaks to the depth of the market as well as the participation rate, just as it's peer does.
Tips for Beginners Playing the Downside!Here is a quick tip on how beginners can translate what they know about playing the upside and utilize the inversion of the chart to make sense of playing the downside!
A lot of New Traders have a tough time playing the downside and this is a great way to start making sense of it!
Parabolic SAR From ScratchHi, traders!
Today we’ll continue our series of educational articles. We hope you enjoyed the previous one and found it useful.
We have already told about the necessity of identifying a trend . Most of freshmen and even experienced traders find it really difficult. There is even more difficult problem, though. Finding the most profitable points of entrance and exit is very complicated task for anybody. However, technical analysis gives traders some tools and techniques that simplify this task greatly. Today we’ll talk about Parabolic SAR (PSAR) , one of the best indicators for identifying trend reverses.
Let’s have a look at it. PSAR is the line of dots which is plotted below or above the price candles. When the trend is bullish the dots are below the candles, when the trend is bearish they are above. PSAR calculation is rather difficult and we don’t want to bore you. One you should know is the main parameters – step and maximum step (default 0.02 and 0.2). When you increase this values, you increase the sensitivity of indicator, but at the same time sacrifice its precision, cause it starts catching lots of false signals. Whereas we decrease these values sensitivity becomes less, but signals are more accurate. Thus, it’s very important to find balance , in order to minimize lagging and get accurate signals.
The way we day trade!In this video we go over the way we approach day trading via our trading strategy which is based purely on technical analysis.
Its a short video and we specifically go over WTI, even tough we have many tradings, but fixed range volume profile is explained and the way we use it.
We hope you enjoy the video and that it helps you with your trading!
Good luck!
Which timeframe is best? Do Sniper entries exist? Time vs priceIn this video, I discuss the different trading perspectives based on different timeframes.
We also take a look at which timeframe will give you the best entry depending on how you define your entry.
Do you define entry by price or time in trade?
Let me know if you agree in the comment section.
Do not forget to give this a thumbs up.
Take Advantage of Tradingview Alerts! (TUTORIAL)Many Options are available for custom tailoring your Alerts so that you can make sure you don't miss out or loose money! Quick crash Course on how to utilize these alerts on your indicators so you can keep an upper hand as you scan the markets