🔥 Very unique situation is happening for the DYDX 🔥Hello traders 🐺 .
As you saw in the title , in this idea I want to talk about this unique situation of the DYDX which in my opinion is very rare and unique in the market specially in the higher time frame like daily and weekly so this could be a very special and profitable trade for you my friends 🚀🔥 .
Many of you know about the bullish and bearish divergence and also may know that what this divergence and patterns trying to telling to us ; but there are some traders whos still don't know about this patterns , so I decided to publish this idea and talk more about the bullish and bearish divergence and also talk about the wedge pattern , so this is tutorial content and I hope this be helpful for you my dear friends .
wedge patterns :
What we have currently in above chart is falling wedge pattern , which is bullishly bias pattern but what does this means ?
when we look at the wedge patterns which in this case is falling wedge or broadening channel , we see descending trend lines which are diverging each others , so we can see a something look like channel but the channel trend lines in the wedge patterns are diverging each others .
But the important point about the wedge patterns is the story behind them , usually when we have a wedge patterns in the market , if you realize the pattern correctly in the most cased we have a divergence in the RSI , but what does this means for us ?
Wedge patterns are type of the exhausting pattern and this means that during this patterns , bigger operator of the market are trying to change the trend but they want to accumulate or distribute during the pattern and we could realize it in the RSI value , because for example in this case we have a falling wedge pattern and as you can see in the chart above we have lower lows in the chart but in the RSI we have a higher lows ;
you can see that as price start to drop , RSI start to rise during the pattern and this means that they are accumulating in the lower price but they do it slowly and want to exhaust people from the current situation of the market so they do it slowly and didn't push the price in one single move , because in that case they can't buy any more in this lower prices .
ok guys I hope this tutorial be helpful for you , but I think now it's time to talk about the DYDX situation .
As you can see in the chart , we have the exact same thing for DYDX , and in my opinion this is a very unique situation in the market because this pattern is formed in the higher time frame like daily or weekly . because of the type of this idea I can't talk more about the price targets because this is a tutorial idea and in this type of idea we have to educate people , not talk about the price targets or long and short trades , so make sure to follow me to see my next analysis about DYDX .
Trading Psychology
LET'S GET REAL: Stop Strategy Jumping!Hey Traders,
This one is going to be a little bit different, a little bit deeper and a little bit harder to listen to rather than usual technical analysis. I recommend you sit down and listen to this. Have a think whether it relates to you or whether you found yourself in this position, or even if you've gone through this position and share your experience on how you go through it. A lot of traders struggle with their strategy, jumping from aspects of trading and that's why so many educators out there make a lot of money off of them. It is time to stop.
In this video I outlay a challenge that I put to all the traders who may find themselves in this position to sit down and to thoroughly test their current or previous strategies and understand them on a deeper level. No more jumping around, no more looking outwards. Let's start looking inwards. Let's see the data that we have handed to us and what we can do to improve that data.
If you enjoyed this video, please leave a comment. Leave a like, if we do get enough likes and comments, I will make a Part 2 on how to go about this with a more depth avenue while using different resources.
As always, have a fantastic training week.
The Dunning–Kruger effectAfter recently doing a review of my last 6 months of trading, I recognized that my portfolio value over this period looked very similar to the Dunning–Kruger effect curve. (a psychological phenomenon that suggests people are not always the best evaluators of their own performance). The theory is often applied to trading because most retail traders experience a similar effect.
After spending 3 months of a practice simulator, I deposited real funds into a trading platform. Within the first week I saw a 24% increase which was shortly followed by loosing half my account value in the coming months. I then decided to take two weeks out and reflect on my performance. It was in these two weeks where I stumbled across an article called "5 steps to becoming a trader" (which I have linked to this post). I came to realize that I was completely incompetent. I didn't follow my trading plans, I got caught up in emotions and I was almost gambling money away in the hopes of getting rich quick.
The harsh reality is trading is hard. After a total of 9 month, I have only just managed to see a net positive return. I have spent thousands of hours only to be outperformed by an Index fund. One article won't change your performance, but these are some things that I learnt which could get you closer to conscious competence:
1. Don't trade with emotions, trade with your plan
2. Keep your risk/reward >1.75
3. Never risk enough money to loose sleep (enter each trade as if you have already lost the money you placed)
4. Reflect on performance and learn from mistakes
5. You don't need to win lots, you just need a mathematical edge
As a trader gains more experience, they become increasingly confident and more likely to see positive returns.
Stay dedicated!!!
GBPUSD Using the Element of TimeThe element of time is a technical analysis tool that I've previously elaborated on -> Check links to related ideas.
The illustration is pretty self-explanatory.
First attempt failed, however price presented a better opportunity a couple hours later which ultimately yielded all our profits for the week.
I will provide my thought process, execution and exits for this trade in a subsequent recording :)
Stay tuned !
Not having a position is also a position - When trading is bad?Every day we start by choosing between long and short.
Sometimes you wake up, look at the btc chart - and clearly see your setup.
And sometimes you don't see it. But you still saw how many of your friends traded shorts successfully and decide to enter a hostile market.
Bottom line: Lost profit, exhausted nerves, stress, a blow to self-esteem.
Most traders forget that there is a third option - to stand aside.
Let's discuss when such position can be useful and why most people use it so rarely.
Pro traders can be split into 2 types:
Bulls and bears. They trade for profit only in one direction, because they have a trained eye to see only their kind of setups.
When a bull finds himself in a bear market, he either trades in the red or breakeven. The same true for the bear.
And yet, even knowing this, the trader continues to trade unfriendly setups. Fueled by success that he carries from his market, he is sure that just a little more, a LITTLE LITTLE more, and he will be able to trade profitably in this market as well. "And if I can trade for profit in both directions, then I will become an absolute terminator and even Warren Buffett himself will personally beg me to share my market forecast with him!" I don’t know if you woke up with such thoughts in the morning, but I definitely had a couple of times.
The answer to this phenomenon is GREED (for money or fame). And the easiest way to get rid of such incidents is to write the following rule in your trading algorithm (I hope you have it):
• Trading during correction is prohibited.
Just one sentence will save you a huge amount of money and help you increase your capital much faster.
Instead of losing money trading corrections, it is better to:
• Relax and spend part of your honestly earned profit on yourself and your loved ones.
• Patiently wait for your market and return to the game.
Do this - and trading will bring you much more pleasure, and you will earn even more and enjoy your life!
If this article was useful to you, please like and leave a comment so that I understand that it has value to you and will continue to write educational material in the future✌️
How to lose your deposit quickly? Easy to follow Step-By-Step🔥Why am I qualified enough to teach you this?
I lost 16 deposits and in 6 years I heard dozens of stories of people who lost their life savings in a couple of months by trading. I have personally tested many of these rules and confirmed that they work.
So what are we waiting for? Lets get it started!
1. Trade with maximum leverage
There is no need to trifle, the bigger leverage is, the greater your profit will be🤑
2. Don't use stop losses
SL’s are for the weak. You probably remember how many times your positions went in the right direction after you closed them by stop loss. Stop losses are evil🤮
3. Average losing positions
Everything is simple here - the more you average, the less you lose. That means you can keep going. Nothing ventured, nothing gained🥂
4. Use your last money and don’t be shy to borrow
The more money you put in, the more money you pull out. Since you are 100% sure that BTC will grow, take loans not only in banks, but also from shady organizations, do not look at interest - you will repay everything back in a month anyway, and your profit will cover any losses💵
5. Trade only when you have been fired from work, haven't slept all night, your girlfriend/wife has left, or you have quarreled with relatives
When everything is bad in your life, it is better to do what you do best - trading. Having earned a lot of money, you will not only be distracted from everyday problems, but also regain confidence and a smile on your face!😉
6. When you closed a losing position, immediately open a new one with double volume to recoup losses
You came into trading to win! So win and never admit defeat! You are Hercules and defeating everyone in the market - this is your 14th feat! No step back, only forward!✊
7. Prioritize Elon Musk's conspiracy theories and tweets over technical analysis
Do you already have the conviction that the Illuminati run the market and every time you open a position and the market goes in the opposite direction, the Illuminati move to harm you? If not, then quickly look at your lost trades. You did everything right, but you still lost money. Why is that? Just don't tell anyone...🤫
8. Believe that trading is luck and the odds are always 50/50
This makes it much easier to make decisions. If black has fallen out on the roulette wheel 2 times in a row, then the chances that red will fall out are much greater. Therefore, do not hesitate to go against the trend, probability theory is on your side 💪
9. Stop exercising your body and mind
You will need neither a healthy body nor a focused mind in trading. You only need your eyes to see “buy“ and “sell“ buttons, you don't need much intelligence for this. Being in the green zone? The green zone is a myth for suckers who engage in self-deception.😏
10. Quit your daily job
Since you already created an account on Binance a week ago, watched a couple of trading videos, sorry, I meant in-depth educational materials, and even have already made a couple of successful trades, then it's time to finally quit that boring job. The road to millions is open, it remains only to take the last step.🤩
11. Manage your friends money
Why getting rich alone? Take your friends and family with you. They will be grateful later.🙌
12. Don't look away from the screen until you've regained every last cent.
Winners don't walk away with losses. Make sure your deposit has at least doubled before ending a session.😎
13. Never fix profits. If it has grown a little, then it will grow more.
Do you remember how you closed the position when the coin grew by 5-10%, and then it rose another 200%? That’s what I’m talking about. Don't close too early, keep trades for the maximum profit.📈
14. Trade at night
If you don't have time, don't give up. There is always an opportunity to earn. Even after a hard day at work.🤜🤛
15. Analyze the market on a 5m timeframe and trade on the 1m.
Opportunities are always there - the main thing is to be open to them.🤞
I hope these tips will help you quickly drain your deposit down and return to a normal life. If you liked them or you are already using them, please click Like and leave a comment so that I understand that it is valuable to you and will continue to write educational materials in the future.✌️
How to analyze any market from scratch #3Hello everyone:
Many of you have asked me to continue making more of these analysing from scratch video, so I have prepared another one here for you today.
Not only will we refresh the previous 2 educational videos on this topic, I will go into a bit more details on the confirmation on the lower time frames with multiple examples in the chart.
Recall from the previous videos I made, when we want to analyze the chart from scratch, we always start:
1. From the higher time frames (HTF) to identify the impulse/correction phases of the market conditions so we can come up with a possible bias and direction of the current price.
2. Once we have a possible direction and bias, then we go down to the lower time frames (LTF) to also identify the impulse/correction phases which will lead to your confirmation and entry.
These are simple steps to follow, based on multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Many have told me it's not hard to identify the HTF’s impulse and correction, but what can be classified as a LTF confirmation before entry?
Let's take a detail look into a few examples:
A LTF confirmation is when the price is developing a few more price action structures/patterns that align with your HTF direction and bias.
These can be continuation/reversal corrections on the LTF; impulse phases on the LTF that go with your bias on the HTF; multiple corrections within the larger corrections (patterns within patterns)...etc.
The more of these LTF price actions you can identify, the more it strengthens your analysis and forecast on the HTF.
Thank you
Do check out my previous educational contents on this same topic to better learn my approach to analyse any market from scratch.
How to analyze any market from scratch #1
How to analyze any market from scratch #2
Trading in Books vs Trading in RealityWhat we study in the books is always different from what we have in real life. For example, French language that people learn and exercise in textbooks is slightly different from the French that we speak in France, as we tend towards using informal language and slang phrases. Same rule applies to trading, as the market is not 100% accurate with what we have in the books that educate us on trading. What we have in the books is absolutely crucial to learn the basics and even more. However, while applying the learned theorem in practice, in our case in the real-life markets, we notice that things are different. Thus, it is important to combine these two elements (on and off the market education) to master the craft.
Furthermore, beauty always lies within simplicity. What's written and illustrated in the books, is the most understandable language of trading. Hence, the expression "textbook stuff" exists. The more experience you gain in this field, the more you will realise that it is crucial to keep things super simplistic if we want to have a crystal clear vision of the market.
The Market is NOT the EconomyGood day, Traders! This week I came across the following headline from a major newspaper: "Stocks Suffer Worst Quarter in 2 Years Amid War, Inflation." It was a surprise to me, because, the majority of the traders that I know didn't miss a beat... March was a great month for trading, just as February was a great month, and so was January! Why is that?
Simply put, the Market is NOT the Economy .
It doesn't matter is there is a pandemic,
it doesn't matter if there is a recession,
it doesn't matter if there is a war,
it doesn't matter if the tech oligarchs are censoring free speech,
it doesn't matter who slaps who at some celebrity event.
The market is composed of people , groups , and institutions trading products in a market whose prices are governed by Supply and Demand .
Oil is at all time highs? Doesn't matter to us traders because we'll find opportunities to both buy and sell based on price action.
"The Euro is losing value?" they say? Again it doesn't matter to us traders because we will find opportunities to go both long and short when our system tells us to do so.
Should you Short the DOW because you think American Industrial companies are going to suffer the repercussions of the last 2 years of lockdowns? Again, it just doesn't matter to the experienced Trader - when the opportunity to go long or short presents itself, just like that proverbial fork in the road, we take it!
"But Captain, you Magnificent Maven of Market Manipulation" you say, "It's impossible to predict market movement. I might as well visit my local casino and go all in on Red on the Roulette Wheel!"
That's what the so-called "experts" want us all to think - Give the "experts" your money and you will be taken care of in your retirement, right? How many professionally managed funds routinely beat the market? According to the New York Times, ZERO. According to a recent report by Business Insider, 90% of actively managed funds failed to beat the market.
If these Ivy League "professionals" spending their entire day trying to beat the market consistently FAIL, Why is it that consistently profitable traders succeed? Because we traders are following those who MOVE the market.
When we traders follow a system that works , and we then develop the ability to "work the system" we get to do what very few people get to do: consistently generate reliable income in the market regardless of economic conditions, regardless of who is in the White House, regardless of what society tells you can or cannot do based on your age, race, or economic status... that's the beauty of being a trader... Freedom.
Until we meet again, Trade well!
The Iceberg Illusion of Success in Trading 🏔️
When people see a consistently profitable trader they do not consider all the costs a successful trader has paid overtime (below the surface) to get to what they see (above the surface).
So many things happen below the surface that nobody can see.
Here are some of the below the surface things that compose the top of the iceberg that everyone sees:
🔰Dedication – you need to be loyal to your dream of becoming a pro trader. Your belief must be that strong so no one could dissuade you. You need an iron discipline to make it happen.
🔰Hard work – you should work day after day not letting yourself give up. Charts must be in front of you as much as it is possible. Trading terminal must become your best friend.
🔰Good habits – follow your trading plan, do not break your rules of risk management, avoid FOMO, etc. This is the set of habits that will be your satellite in your trading journey. Do them consistently and they will become a natural part of your life.
🔰Disappointment – it does not matter how hard you try. Occasionally things will fall apart anyway: you will face losing streaks and a strategy will refuse to work. It will hurt. "Stand up straight with your shoulders back". Treat disappointments as temporary things.
🔰Sacrifice – to become a consistently profitable trader you should pay the price. Losses, time, nerves. Your prosperous future will have a tremendous cost.
🔰Failure – while you are learning how to trade you will inevitably blow a couple of trading accounts, you will spend time on strategies and techniques that do not work. Occasionally you will fall. If so, stand up and keep going.
🔰Persistence – keep doing what you are doing no matter what. Do not let others persuade you that you can't make it. Even if things get tough, stay strong.
🔰Focus – always know what is your end goal, know where are you going, and what is your end destination.
🔰Flexibility – be prepared for sudden changes in the environment. Keep your focus on the goals that you set learning to adjust to the changing circumstances.
🔰Consistency – you will not get the desired results immediately. Be ready to do the same again and again, hundred times until the goal is achieved.
Overnight success does not exist. If you want to become a consistently profitable trade be prepared for years of struggling and pain. And do not be afraid, it is worth it.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Know When to Stop Trading⛔️
✅Today we will talk about one of the most important things in trading, about what most traders around the world cannot do, even though they are well aware of the need for these actions. It will be about suspending and completely stopping their trading activities.
✅What to do if the trading system has failed, the market has changed, emotions fail or something has gone wrong. It is in this situation that the rules of action in extreme trading situations come to our aid.
1️⃣Three shots and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading within a day
🟢The main essence of this rule is contained in the title. And its essence is to stop trading if 3 consecutive losing trades were made during the trading session. No more deals are opened on this trading day. The trader has received a clear signal that something has gone wrong and the problem is either with the strategy or with the market or with the trader.
🟢Especially psychologically strong people who are sure that they will not be drawn to recoup, can continue to monitor the market, but it would be better to just close the trading platform and do something else, and after the trading session to analyze and find out what the problem was.
2️⃣Three volleys and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading for 2 days
🟢This rule is quite simple in formulation and just as complex in execution, in fact, as all the rules of risk management and capital management.
🟢If the three-shot rule has worked for three days in a row, then trading stops for 2 days. The principle is the same as in the previous rule, but in this case, the trader receives a signal that the problem is more serious than originally thought and it will not be possible to simply wait it out, serious measures need to be taken to analyze and correct the situation.
3️⃣The 30% trading capital rule
🟢If 30% of the trading capital was lost during trading, then trading stops completely until the moment when this loss is made up in any other way (of course legal). This rule will help to save your main working tool — trading capital and will allow you to relieve psychological stress because the trader will come out of a stressful state and realize that he has other ways of earning income, i.e. trading is not conducted with the last money.
❗️Observing these 3 simplest rules of stopping trading, you can be sure that you will never lose your deposit and even in the worst case scenario you will always be able to stop and beat the excitement that pushes many traders to return to the market again and again until zero remains on the account.However, all of the above is true only under one small condition — all three rules are strictly observed
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
IGNORE THE NOISE AND NEGATIVE EXTERNAL ENERGYTrading is a one big system that consists of various different components: technicality, psychology, money management and so forth. The most difficult one out of all the elements is definitely psychology. Human psychology is a perplexing system that studies our mental process and behaviour. Our behaviour and mood rely on multiple internal and external factors. In our everyday life, our behaviour towards something can easily change when being affected by negative energy. The very same principles apply to trading. Our decision-making process can easily get fogged and mood get ruined after experiencing some losses, opportunity misses and so on. Even worse, our desire and will to keep trading and striving for success can get intercepted by some negative opinions and attitiudes of surrounding people.
It is totally acceptable to live a life that others do not understand. If you want something really bad, nothing can get in your way and stop you from achieving it. Block all the negative energy. Keep prospering, working towards your ambitions, and proving all the people that did not believe in you wrong!
Investroy
What Traders Want vs What Traders Get"It is a marathon, not a sprint". One of the statements that perfectly describes trading. But what does this proclamation really mean? I quote William Shakespeare: "Go wisely and slowly. Those who rush, stumble and fall". Great things take lots of time. 90% of all people get false expectations about trading before they enter the industry. They think it is a "get-rich-quick" scheme. In reality, it takes months/years of practice, hard work and experience to reach the doors of consistency and profitability. Furthermore, consistency in trading does not necessarily imply that every trade will be a winning one. It just indicates that if you keep following your trading plan, be risk tolerant and disciplined, you will be profitable and successful in the long-run.
We encourage you all to be patient and just ride with the trend as there is no need to rush anywhere. After all, Rome was not built in a day.
Hope you all enjoyed this quick educational and informative post! The purpose of this publication was to give you all some guidance and keep you motivated so you can continue your journey to the top of the mountain. If you have any more suggestions and recommendations on what our next educational idea should be about, feel free to let us know in the comments section below.
Investroy
How to continue in trading during uncertainty timeHello traders:
Recently I received many messages from traders about taking many losses during this uncertain time.
What's going on globally right now may have a different impact on all the different markets.
Many have told me of your frustration, stress, and negative emotion on losing money and continue to feel defeated.
Today I will explain a few things that you can implement into your current trading plan,
approach and perspective during this period of time.
First, you must acknowledge risk management.
Too many traders ignore this key important aspect of trading.
Especially during this time where the market can be volatile and irregular.
It's in your best interest to understand how to manage your risk. You should have a plan that lists out how your approach would be.
For example for my risk management right now:
-1% per trade of account capital.
-No more than 1 trade on the same currency, unless the first trade is secure in profit.
-No more than 2 trades open during a day, max drawdown 2% per day
-10-15 trades per month
-3 trades maximum per week
-Minimum 3:1 RR allow before entry
-Will Take profit on average when in profit 3:1 RR.
Second, learn to control your mindset and emotions.
More often when traders approach me these days, they are telling me they are taking too many trades, chasing profits and revenge trading their losses.
All these arise from the mistakes of FOMO, get rich quick mindset, enter multiple trades.
IF a trader can truly understand the fact that the market will always be there tomorrow, next week, next month..etc, then it's an easier thing to deal with on a psychological level.
You will no longer stress about trying to enter too many trades, worry that the market may not be available tomorrow.
Third, less social media exposure.
In today’s world, unfortunately in trading, most of the things you see on social media are fabricated and fake.
Their sole purpose is to sell you a dream, lifestyle, and easy money concept.
ITs always during this uncertain time, you will see more and more of these “gurus” who will show you how much $ they made during this time.
Now, I am not saying all are fake or scam, I am sure small # of them are doing well.
But, most of the things you will see in your social media feed, are likely to be photoshopped, faked, fabricated to make you believe whatever you are doing is wrong, and you tend to “compare” your result with these people.
This ended up becoming very negative and stressful to continue.
ITs important to understand trading is one of the toughest professions out there.
IT requires so much emotion control, clear mindset, and proper psychology on a regular basis.
If you are struggling, it's usually not to do with your trading strategy, but rather your approach, perspective, and perception.
So, eliminate as many unrealistic things you might see, and focus on yourself and your journey.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Stop Loss hunting: the whole truth and the logic behind itGood time of the day, dear TradingView family! Welcome on another educational post by Investroy. Today we are gonna be talking about Stop Loss hunting. We will scrutinise what it is, how it happens and what's the logic behind it, and how to possibly avoid being "liquidated".
Have you ever had the price trigger your Stop Loss before impulsing all the way to your Target Profit and hitting it? If the answer is yes, then you have probably been a victim of Stop Loss hunts. But what is Stop Loss hunting? In simple terms, it is a strategy that forces some participants out of the game by driving the price to the level where they have set their Stop Loss orders. As we all know, retail traders always look for some sort of confirmations before entering a position. It can be a candlestick pattern, a moving average cross, a double top / double bottom formation and so on. They enter a position and set their Stop Loss a few pips above/below the local supply/ demand level . What happens 90% of the time is the price spikes up/down, hits the Stop Loss, liquidates so many positions and participants from the trade, and then continues moving alongside the trend. Why does it happen? Institutional traders know exactly what they need to do and which levels they need to buy/sell. Consequently, they set their buy/sell limit orders at places where they know retailers would set their Stop Losses, because they need to generate liquidity before jumping in the train. It does not necessarily signify that they track where retailers put their Stop positions, it is just they are more than sure which levels are crowded with Stop Loss orders.
We have prepared some examples in order to better elaborate on the issue and scrutinise how the case looks visually. Of course, these are only simple exemplars. It does not unquestionably mean that the price will always behave this way as the market conditions change quite often.
Looking at Example #1, we can see that the price spiked above the level of the right shoulder of the formed H&S pattern before continuing its downside movements. Now, which action do most retailers take once they spot these textbook patterns? They execute right away with their Stop Loss above/below the structure, which results in the positions getting wiped out.
Example #2 shows how the price spikes below/above obvious levels of support/resistance before continuing movements in the deliberate destinations.
Example #3 illustrates how obvious ascending/descending/sideways channels are, and how easy it is to get liquidated instantly, before the price carries on moving in the destined end.
How to avoid being eliminated? Well, you won't always be able to run away from Stop Loss hunting, but if you develop a proper working strategy against it, you will be able to identify possible zones filled with Stop Loss orders and avoid setting one around that area. If you are not gonna think long and hard about where you are gonna put your Stop orders, you will easily get eliminated in a sea of Stop Losses. Thus, think outside of the box and have patience before jumping in a particular trade.
Hope this educational idea is useful! If you have any comments or enquiries, do not hesitate to ask in the comment section below. Also, if you want us to make an educational post on a topic that interests you, feel free to drop your recommendations and suggestions in the comment box as well!
Have a great rest of the week!
Investroy
How to understand your Brain In Trading? (educational post)What does this have to do with trading? Everything. Trading is mental.
Before continuing make sure to like and save this post.
Your trading errors don't come from the market , they come from your own perception and reaction about the market information.
Neurons are what transmit information to different parts of the brain. The stimulus starts in the amygdala and then move into the neocortex. Your brain and memory react with past information. These neurons will start to associate themselves to respond accordingly. Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth or stagnancy. Choose wisely
Trading examples :
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In trading you will fell the pain that you experienced from that previous loss and that will make you feel afraid for the next decision. You won't be able to execute once the edge appears in front of you.
If we had a major win, then these neurons will start to associate themselves to the pleasure that you experienced from those profits.
However, neurons do not have a mind of their own, and they are simply doing their job by transmitting information. That Information can either be right or wrong! We can develop false or negative neuro-associations throughout life.
For example:
smokers will associate pleasure to the inhalation of a cigarette, instead of the pain that could be caused by cancer.
Some people associate pain to falling in love if they have experienced a bad breakup, and the begin to create a negative neuro-association to entering into a new unique relationship.
Some will associate fear to every dog they see in the street if they have experienced a dog attack
Drug addicts will assimilate pleasure by consuming desctuctive substances
But how does all this apply to trading financial markets?
Almost every trader has suffered after a massive losing streak , only for the market to show a entry that could have been able to make us back the money lost but we did not had the courage to take the trade
Almost every trader has experienced the pleasure of making a large amount of profits, only for the market the reverse and it becomes a big loss.
The brain will create a neuro-association that will link pain to a normal retracement in price. You will begin to equate a retracement to pain, and thus create a false neuro-association. You are going to close your trades with a simple pullback. It requires a mental process called neuro-associative conditioning. The negative neuro-associations must be turned into positive neuro-associations.
For example :
Do you have hope when a losing trade runs and you wait it to turn back into profit ? Do you feel despair when the market is redistributing your profits with one single retracement ? then change that and do the opposite. feel despair when a trade is running in loss and feel hope when a trade is running in profit. This is a change in your neuro-association; a negative one to a positive one.
Is the market retracing ? Do not associate this with 'the market is taking my profits back!' but rather 'the market may be presenting me with an opportunity to add to my position'. This is a change in your neuro-associations; a negative one to a positive one.
Did the market hit your stop loss ? Do not associate this with the pain of losing money, but rather associate it with the fact that the probability of the next trade being a winner will stay because of your profitability. This is a change in your neuro-association; a negative one to a positive one.
Do you feel great after a massive win ? then change that and feel protective about what you collected. this is a change
. Hope this post was helpful .
Now let me know if you have another example about bad neur-associative conditionning that can be turned into This is a change in your neuro-association; a negative one to a positive ones ?
Mastering The Wyckoff Method of Technical Analysis Introduction:
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In the time period of April in 2021 Bitcoin reached its local high of roughly US $65,000 per coin, shortly after when May came along many social channels quickly lit up with the now infamous “Wyckoff Distribution Schematic” (This was one popular video that described it here: www.youtube.com), and shortly after BTC came crashing down back to the $30,000 region playing this schematic almost perfectly. I myself was trading Bitcoin using the Wyckoff Method at this time, and I was introduced to a plethora of new traders and investors trying to understand the complicated Wyckoff method, but the fact of the matter was, many were sharing or educating others in incorrect ways to use this method. From this day I took more of an interest in educating others in the Wyckoff Method, and below I am going to pick apart, introduce and help you master some of the key concepts used in this method of analysis.
Bitcoins Chart March-May 2021
Read more about the Crash in 2021:
www.aljazeera.com
Who is “Wyckoff”?:
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Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers.
Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline.
Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the Composite Operator , another is Volume based analysis .
Who is the Composite Operator / The Composite Man?:
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“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Based on his years of observations of the market activities of large operators, Wyckoff taught that:
The Composite Man carefully plans, executes and concludes his campaigns.
-The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock (financial asset) in which he has already accumulated a sizable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.”
-One must study individual stock charts with the purpose of judging the behaviour of the stock and the motives of those large operators who dominate it.
-With study and practice, one can acquire the ability to interpret the motives behind the action that a chart portrays. Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behaviour of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them.
Above excerpt from: school.stockcharts.com
Many traders and investors who follow the Wyckoff Method treat the Composite man as a real entity, for Cryptocurrency holders this might be seen as a whale who controls the price. Wyckoff himself did not find it necessary to define a importance between the Composite man being an imaginary being, a creation of one's own mind or a real entity, but defined an importance towards “Thinking” like the Composite Man, by thinking like a “Large Operator” we change our Psychology.
But what does this mean?
In the book titled, “The Compound Effect” by Darren Hardy (Founder of Success Magazine) there is a section titled “Find Your Fight” in Chapter 3, in this section Darren describes how hate is often as strong as a motivating force as love, but why is this relevant?
A person who is in love may do crazy things, but so will a person who is consumed by hate, as both are powerfully motivating forces. By creating a “Enemy” (Someone to hate) our mindset changes to a defensive manner, we are now in “Battle” with our Enemy. Here is a quote from the book, which is one of my favourites:
“Contrary to social correctness, it can be good to hate. Hate disease, hate injustice, hate ignorance, hate complacency, and so on. Sometimes identifying an enemy lights your fire.Some of my greatest motivation, determination, and dogged persistence came when I had an enemy to fight. In history, the most transformation stories and political revolutions came about as a result of fighting an enemy. David had Goliath, America had the British. Luke had Darth Vader…”
And as traders; we have The Composite Man…
A great article on the Composite Man can be located here for further education:
www.wyckoffanalytics.com
Wyckoff's "Five Step Approach":
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The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
Determine what the current characteristics of the price structure and Supply & Demand are, (are we in a Uptrend, Downtrend or Sideways) by getting a general idea of the Price Structure, Sentiment & Supply and Demand we can determine if we want to be in a long or short trade, or no trade at all, and what the probable future direction of the market may be. Refer to Section “Market Phases & Cycles” below to understand this further.
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market.
By selecting assets moving with the Primary Trend, we are increasing chances of success. (For example, if the dominant asset in Crypto, Bitcoin is on a strong uptrend is it fair to assume that you are going to have more success trying to long other Cryptocurrencies which are highly “correlated” and likely to follow in that direction. Financial Assets that “decorrelate” and show stronger increases during uptrends and smaller decreases on pull backs may be showing signs of being stronger then the market as a whole (long position), for shorts we are looking for Assets that are showing weakness and stronger decreases then the market as a whole.
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
Every action, has a reaction, every cause, has an effect, this statement basically means that if you are going to enter the market and take a position, look for assets that have a rational and reasonable cause for you to reach your target objective. A great example is using Price Target Measurements when trading Chart Patterns, each Chart Pattern is the cause, and the Price Target is the effect. If there is a Cause, but no Effect, then it is a potential sign of weakness. Please see “Wyckoff Laws” below for more information.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
Use a pre determined system to determine how close assets are to entering the Mark Up or Mark Down Phases. Find the right system to see when a asset is about to Uptrend or Downtrend. Use the 9 Buying & Selling tests, aswell as the Wyckoff Schematics explained below to understand this concept further.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
Financial Markets are highly correlated, this means that we want to be timing our investments and trades with the Leading Market Assets or Index’s (A Index is basically a grouping of the Top Stocks or Companies in that Industry, for example, SP500, AU200). Why do we want to time? Lets use Bitcoin as a example. Sometimes Bitcoin is almost correlated to 80-90% of the Stock Market, that means the price moves almost in sync, so by watching the price movements and analyzing the Stock Market we can also get clues on the direction of the asset we are trading. If Bitcoin is moving up, but the Stock Market is heading down, and the correlation is HIGH, we can assume that the upside move may not be likely to continue.
Market Phases & Cycles:
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According to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure above. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown. Also note the different Phases of the Market.
Before we continue below, please click on the image below for my basic introduction to Market Phases & Cycles, which is an important topic to have an understanding of before continuing onto Wyckoff Schematics. This is also relevant to understand Cause & Effect mentioned below. Notice how each Cause has an Effect!
To simplify the concept - Markets move in cyclical patterns, with a full cycle usually having Accumulation > Reaccumulation > Distribution >Redistribution, there can also be Micro trends within the cycle. Uptrends (HH, HL), Downtrends (LL, LH) and Sideways movements form the price structures which make up the Phases of the market, which in turn create the Cycles.
Three Laws of Wyckoff
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Wyckoff Analysis is fundamentally based off the Three Laws of Wyckoff, which can be found and recognized across many different types of Analysis, the Laws help give insight to our analysis and choice of buying/selling.
1. Supply vs. Demand
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Wyckoff states when demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall.
When sellers outweigh the buyers, the market is dominated by Supply, a large supply of an asset to sell, means greater selling pressure and a higher probability of a decrease in price. A sign of Demand (Buying Pressure) is a shortage of Supply, in a Cryptocurrencies case it would mean that the demand of buyers on exchanges outweighs the supply available for purchase on exchanges. As the amount up for purchase quickly falls to a low number the greed of participants drives them to want to pay higher prices for an asset.
When buyers outweigh sellers, the latter occurs with a higher probability of increase in prices. A sign of Supply (Selling Pressure) is a shortage of Demand, in a Cryptocurrencies case it would mean that the demand of buyers on exchanges under weighs the supply available, institutional investors and funds hold majority share of the SUPPLY and with no interest in buying from the retail participants we see investors (sometimes impatient or fearful) become sellers in anticipation of there being no increase in price in the short term (relative to their perspective).
Using this secondary chart below, we can clearly see the "Demand (Green)" and "Supply (Red)" areas of Siacoin SC.
We can see that both the Demand & Supply areas are respected and have strong reactions, and with patience we will see if the dominating factor on Siacoin right now is Supply or Demand, but considering some of the points I will go into below so far its looking like it is shifting into the favour of demand currently with a visit to the 0.5 (50%) of the Trading Range. Take note of the small abbreviations at the start of the TR (Trading Range) for now - see Wyckoff Schematics section later.
Other ways to analyze Supply & Demand in Cryptocurrencies are more literal - for example you can literally go onto the Blockchain and see the wallets of coins, how many each holds, what % of the Supply is owned by Siacoin itself, the amount of wallet holders, I will not go into this type of analysis in a detailed manner as it is not my expertise.
2. Effort vs. Result
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Wyckoff states that every effort should lead to a result in the financial markets.
Here is a example of a “Effort Vs Result” in a Trading Range (Parallel Channel) using Volume & Price Analysis (Please Click the Image, for Further Educational Idea)
This statement is applied to our charts by using data on Trading Volume. When we see abnormally large trading volume at key areas on the chart, we can usually expect a continued move in that direction, if the Effort produces no result though, that abnormally large trading volume can give us a sign that the participants betting on the market to move in that direction have not gathered enough momentum to do so (Marked in Light Blue), which leads to them being trapped (Marked in Dark Blue) and then a reverse in the opposite direction in price (Marked in Purple).
Effort Vs Result can also be interpreted in a number of ways, lets analyse the above Siacoin SC chart using this concept:
In the first image, the Trading Range is created, once at the lower range, volume decreased (this was not just a singular occurrence, with the whole Crypto market having similar low volume and "choppiness" but within this low volume area we can see there was two larger red volume bars, these two bars showed us a increase in sellers in this area, (An effort) but no Result (further Decrease on the next candles) this gives us a sign that the sellers may not be the dominant force now (A “Divergence) leading us to test the previous dominant force area above as supply.
This then led us to test the upper Trading Range, where the exactly same thing happened in the opposite.
In the 3rd image, we can finally see that the effort of the buyers is now leading to zero result, the trading range is starting to drag out and the volume of sellers is dropping off, in a REAL breakout the volume should continue to increase with the prices. We can see below that never happens here. As the images progress the Supply is obviously Dominant.
This leads us to the current chart, where we can see that now the sellers are losing momentum and the buyers have just stepped in. (See the volume?)
In the current trading range on SC (Siacoin) we can see quite a lot of abnormally large green bars at the upper range, this shows us that even though a large amount of buyers did in fact come into play here, the upper ranges dominant force was the Supply, and prices then headed towards the lower range.We are now in the process of “Testing” that lower range for Demand. So far the circled Red Bars (in the First chart, the original chart of this post) show us the sellers may be trapped locally.
3. Cause vs. Effect
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Wyckoff states that every cause in the market leads to a proportional effect.
The market has phases, such as Accumulation, Reaccumulation, Distribution and Redistribution. Each phase should have a "Effect" to match the cause, Accumulation has a Markup, aswell as Reaccumulation, And Distribution and Redistribution are followed by a Mark Down. The phase is the cause, the mark up is the effect.
Click on this link for a quick infographic on the Market Phases (Consider each phase as a Cause) which then should have an Effect (Mark Up or Mark Down Phase), this creates the “Market Cycle” and all markets move in cycles: ibb.co
This is similar to how a Bull Flag has a target measurement (Mark Up) and a Bear Flag has a target measurement for the downside (Mark Down). For more information on Flag Patterns click the below image, notice on the bottom right picture how the Flag has a measurement which is represented by a extended line, the previous line and the Flag is the Cause, the extended line pointing upwards is the Effect in this case:
In this case, if we see a breakout to the upside of this current trading range on SC Siacoin (the Cause) we can assume the Effect will be a strong breakout above the range leading to Mark Up Phase, otherwise the Cause has no Effect, in this situation meaning the range might fail and break downwards.
This is similar in a way to Effort vs Result explained earlier, For every Effort, there should be a Result, for every Cause, there should be an effect.
Wyckoff Schematics
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A trading range (Sideways Movement, Zig Zag) shows us an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, and the Wyckoff Theory & Schematics give us clues to which probable direction the price may head out of the horizontal moving price structure.
Each Trading Range can be an important Phase in the larger Market Cycle, giving us potential clues and hints within the overall trend.
The Wyckoff Schematics help us identify the different between Accumulation and Distribution Trading Ranges (Or Reaccumulation or Redistribution) - In a Trading Range the price Zig Zags up and down until eventually a breakout occurs, using the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic we can see there are some clues in the similarities of the chart and the schematic that tell us Siacoin may be ready to at least test of the upper bounds of the Trading Range.
It is important to note that most Trading Ranges start with obvious characteristics, which we will delve into further below, the first characteristics of the Trading Range (TR) help us identify that we are now moving in a sideways trend:
When paired with the Wyckoff 9 Buying and Selling Tests - the Wyckoff Schematics are a great tool to help measure potential entries, exits, risk and to read the price movement in general.
There are four types: Accumulation , Reaccumulation , Distribution & Redistribution.
And each Trading Range is Analysed in 5 key phases:
By splitting our Schematics into 5 key phases, the characteristics become easier to recognize and identify.Remember this when moving forward in this section.
Phase A: The trading range (TR) is created (example above)
Phase B: The Supply & Demand of the TR is tested
Phase C: Deviation outside TR or Final point before reversal
Phase D: The new trend begins
Phase E: The trend continues
In phase D & E, the obvious “Change of Trend” is evident, refer to this infographic below and you can see how a trend contains Higher Highs, Higher Lows (HH, HL) or Lower Lows, Lower Highs (LL, LH); we will come back to this soon:
1. Accumulation :
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In accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold.
There are roughly 9 characteristics of an Accumulation Range:
1. PS (Preliminary Support) the first Support area that was lost, creating the upper bound of the TR.
2. SC (Selling Climax) the climactic action that is bought up quickly creating the lower bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large selling volume, but no further downside.
3. AR (Automatic Rally) a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating short covering.
4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the SC.
5. Spring (Fake Out) & Test or LPS (Last point of Support). Spring is usually a great example of Effort vs Result. Spring is then confirmed by a test of Support. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend.
6. JAC (Jump Across the Creek) the Creek is an imaginary line created by the previous downtrend (similar to a Moving Average), we want to see the price “Jump” across the creek.
7. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend.
8. SOS (Sign of Strength) is an abnormally large volume signature upwards price movement which confirms the Spring or LPS.
9. BU/LPS (Back Up / Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner.The SOS & LPS together form the Basis of a Uptrend, see this image for reference: ibb.co . The final LPS before leaving the Trading Range should start the Uptrend.The LPS can sometimes move to the 50% of the Trading Range.
We should then enter the Mark Up phase as described at the start of this article. Remember; Accumulation is the Cause, Markup is the Effect.
Examples & Links :
Accumulation Schematic #1:
school.stockcharts.com
In this schematic, the Spring is located in the end of the TR, showing trapped sellers.
Accumulation Schematic #2:
school.stockcharts.com
In this schematic, there is no Spring action, instead the price starts moving upwards from the LPS Area (Last Point of Support), the Spring (in this case, ST) is located at the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Example of Accumulation #1 Analysis (Click image, press play to see the result!):
Example of Accumulation #2 Analysis:
2. Reaccumulation :
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After Accumulation, comes Reaccumulation. Where after a extended upside move, a repeated sideways movement occurs which leads to another extended upside move.
ReAccumulation is known also as a Trend Continuation.
The characteristics are almost identical to Accumulation, except the previous price movement leading up to the trading range is upwards :
Here are the characteristics explained :
1. PS (Preliminary Supply) the first selling area creating the Trading Range.
2. BC (Buying Climax) the climactic action that is sold up quickly creating the upper bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large buying volume, but no further upside.
3. Shakeout (Fake Out to the downside trapping sellers) (I have marked this as SC, to simplify the process as a Shakeout is quite similar in its characteristic.
4. AR (Automatic Rally) a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating short covering.
5. ST Area (Secondary Test Area) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the Shakeout.
6. Spring (Fake Out) or LPS (Last point of Support) A Spring occurs when price falls underneath the Trading Range, triggering stop losses and usually inducing investors to Panic Sell, (this is the most profitable area to buy). Spring is then confirmed by a test of Support. Spring is usually a great example of Effort vs Result. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend.
7. JAC (Jump Across the Creek) is when the price “Jumps” across the Trading Range, giving us a final clue before the breakout occurs. The “Creek” is an imaginary line formed from the projected path of the previous price swing highs, this can be used similar to a Moving Average.
8. SOS (Sign of Strength) is an abnormally large volume signature upwards price movement which confirms the Spring or LPS.
9. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner.The SOS & LPS together form the Basis of a Uptrend, see this image for reference: ibb.co . The final LPS before leaving the Trading Range should start the Uptrend.The LPS can sometimes move to the 50% of the Trading Range.
We should then enter the Mark Up phase as described at the start of this article. Reaccumulation = Cause, Mark Up = Effect
Examples & Links :
It is important to note that Reaccumulation can appear as Accumulation, in the image below we can see that MANAUSDT looked like Accumulation Schematic #2, yet was actually Reaccumulation due to the previous uptrend.
And in this example Reaccumulation looked exactly like Schematic #1 of Accumulation!
Reaccumulation Schematic #1:
ibb.co
In this schematic, the Spring is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped sellers.
Reaccumulation Schematic #2:
ibb.co
In this schematic, the ST (or Spring) is located at the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Traditional Reaccumulation Schematics:
ibb.co
(Credit: Roman Bogomazov / www.wyckoffanalytics.com)
Example of Traditional Reaccumulation #2 Analysis: (Press Play!):
3. Distribution :
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Above we learnt that in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The shares sold outnumber those purchased.
In a Distribution Trading Range two of the key characteristics are the UTAD/UT (Upwards Thrust / Upwards Thrust & Distribution) above the Trading Range, and the SoW's Signs Of Weaknesses with strong volume at the bottom end of the range. The start of the trading range should be easily identified by a BC (Buying Climax). The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR .
There are roughly 9 characteristics of an Distribution Range:
1. PS (Preliminary Supply) is the first selling area creating the Trading Range.
2. BC (Buying Climax) is the climactic action that is sold up quickly creating the upper bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large buying volume, but no further upside.
3. AR (Automatic Rally) is a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating long covering.
4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Supply Area created by the BC.
5. SOW (Sign of Weakness) are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature.
6. UT or UTAD (Upwards Thrust) in a UT (Upwards Thrust) a significant amount of buyers enter the market, “Buying the Breakout”, but their Effort, leads to no Result and this variation of a “Bull Trap” is the most significant characteristic of the Distribution TR. A UTAD (Upwards Thrust and Distribution) forms within the middle or end of the Trading Range; there is an obvious lack of Result vs Effort, with abnormally large buying volume signature, yet price fails to get back above this area again. It can look similar to a miniature Trading Range (Distribution).
7. UTAD or LPSY (Last Point of Supply) In Schematic #1 we have the UTAD at the end, in Schematic #2 we have it in the middle (simplified). If the /UT is found in the middle then we are looking for the LPSY to confirm the Resistance, when price revisits the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, and then successfully decreases from that area.
8. SOW (Sign of Weakness, Fall under the Ice) just like how in Accumulation we Jump Across the creek, in Distribution we do the latter and Fall Under the Ice. SOW (Sign of Weakness) are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature.
9. LPSY (Last Point of Supply) instead of revisiting the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, in LPSY (Last Point of Supply) revisits the recent Supply (Resistance) area, usually a former Support. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPSY forming the Lower Highs (LH’s) that make up the basis of a market trend.
We should then enter the Mark Down phase as described at the start of this article. Distribution is the Cause, and Mark Down is the Effect.
Examples & Links :
Distribution Schematic #1:
school.stockcharts.com
In this schematic, the UTAD is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Distribution Schematic #2:
school.stockcharts.com
In this schematic, the UTAD is located in the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Example of Distribution #1 Analysis (Press Play!):
Example of Distribution # 2 Analysis (Press Play!):
4. Redistribution :
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After Distribution, Comes Redistribution. Where after a extended down move, a repeated sideways movement occurs which leads to another extended downwards move.
Redistribution is also known as a Downtrend Continuation. Redistribution is said to be difficult to analyse, so my general advice is to treat Redistribution as a method to spot an additional Distribution Schematic after a Distribution Schematic and a Mark Down has already occurred previously recently on the chart (Similar to a Bear Flag Pattern after a Distribution).
The characteristics are almost identical to Distribution sometimes, except the previous price movement leading up to the trading range is upwards :
Here are the characteristics explained :
1. PS (Preliminary Support) the first Support area that was lost, creating the upper bound of the TR.
2. SC (Selling Climax) the climactic action that is bought up quickly creating the lower bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large selling volume, but no further downside.
3. AR (Automatic Rally) is a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating long covering + (UT/UA Upwards Thrust / Action) The Upwards Action or Upwards Thrust takes out the Supply above the AR area, before heading back down.
4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the SC.
5. UT or UTAD (Upwards Thrust, or Upwards Thrust And Distribution), in a UT (Upwards Thrust) a significant amount of buyers enter the market, “Buying the Breakout”, but their Effort, leads to no Result and this variation of a “Bull Trap” is the most significant characteristic of the Distribution TR. A UTAD is basically a UT (Upwards Thrust) with a Distribution also (miniature Bearish Trading Range) that usually forms within the middle or end of the TR.
6. LPSY + Test (Last Point of Supply) is when price revisits the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, and then successfully decreases from that area, the test confirmed by tapping the upper Supply Area before heading into the TR again.
7. SOW (Sign of Weakness) *sometimes* with a potential UTAD (Upwards Thrust and Distribution): Signs of Weakness are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature.
8. SOW (Sign of Weakness, Fall under the Ice) just like how in Accumulation we Jump Across the creek, in Distribution we do the latter and Fall Under the Ice.
9. LPSY (Last Point of Supply) instead of revisiting the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, in this LPSY we are visiting the Supply area created near the bottom of the Trading Range.
We should then enter the Mark Down phase as described at the start of this article. Redistribution is the Cause, Mark Down is the Effect.
Examples & Links :
It is important to note that Redistribution can appear as Distribution just like Accumulation as Reaccumulation as mentioned earlier, here is a example on ETHUSDT:
Redistribution Schematic #1:
ibb.co
In this schematic, the UTAD is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Redistribution Schematic #2:
ibb.co
In this schematic, the UTAD is located in the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers.
Example of Redistribution #1 Analysis (Press Play!):
Example of Redistribution #2 Analysis (Press Play!):
5. Failure of Schematic :
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Wyckoff based trades can also fail.
It is also important to note that Wyckoff Schematics are not a guarantee, more so a system for you to analyse the market and know potential lower risk areas to position your trades.
In this example below (Click+Press Play!) we can see that the Accumulation on BATUSDT did have a strong breakout, but never entered into a correct markup phase and then "failed" when the price came back inside of the TR (Trading Range):
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
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Whereas the three Wyckoff laws provide a big-picture foundation for the Wyckoff method, the nine buying and selling tests are a set of narrower, specific principles to help guide trade entry. These tests help delineate when a trading range is drawing to a close and a new uptrend (markup) or downtrend (markdown) is about to begin.
In the book, by Hank Pruden, named "The Three Skills of Top Trading" , as well as the following article by Jack K Hutson the Nine Buying and Selling Tests of Wyckoff are discussed and outlayed similar to the above image:
These nine tests can be difficult to understand, or even apply to your charts, so I have summarised them and modernised these tests for a purely candlestick chart and simplified point of view.
Alot of analysts beforehand made use of P&F (Point & Figure Charts). At the top of your Tradingview chart, you can see a small icon, if you click it you can see the different types of charts available, we are currently on Candlesticks, Point & Figure is another option that was used for some Wyckoff Analysis, but in my simplified version we are just using Candlesticks:
ibb.co
Here are my simplified Buying & Selling Tests explained with images
1. Buying Tests :
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I am using the chart of ZILUSDT as a example.
Wyckoff Buying Tests for Accumulation (Simplified Version)
1. Downside price target complete or close to complete of any previous Bearish Patterns
(Bear Flag Pattern used for Target Measurement: www.thepatternsite.com )
2. PS, SC, and AR/ST on chart (Remember our first chart above, with Supply & Demand? ON the left we can see creation of the trading range with the Selling Climax (SC), Automatic Rally (AR), and Support Test (ST) we also covered this in the chart below (The 2nd below is showing that on ZILUSDT):
3. Bullish Signs (volume or price increases on rallies and diminishes during reactions)
4. Diagonal Resistance Broken
5. Higher lows & 6. Higher highs
7. Asset stronger than the market (more responsive on rallies and more resistant to reactions than the market index or other dominant assets)
8. Base forming (horizontal price line)
(It can resemble a Flat Base Pattern: www.thepatternsite.com)
9. Estimated upside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit (Risk to Reward; 3:1)
We can now see we have completed all 9 Buying Tests:
And for the final images, we can see that ZIL has a massive upside move, moving to the Mark Up phase from our Buying Tests Analysis:
Aswell as starting to complete a larger Accumulation #1 Structure as desribed above.
2. Selling Tests :
---------------------------------
I am using the chart of XTZBTC as a example.
If you missed it above, dont forget to see the original 9 Selling Tests:
ibb.co
Wyckoff Buying Tests for Distribution (Simplified Version)
1. Upside price objective complete of any previous Bullish Patterns on higher timeframes, or close to complete
(Bull Flag Pattern used for Target Measurement: www.thepatternsite.com )
2. Bearish Signs (volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions)
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax (PSY, BC)
We also covered this in the chart below (The 2nd below is showing that on XTZBTC):
4. Asset weaker than the market (more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies)
XTZ was a perfect example of Selling Test #4, as you can see it was much weaker than Bitcoin at the time, which was leading the market.
5. Diagonal Support Broken
6. Lower Highs & 7. Lower Lows
8. Crown forming
(It can resemble a ugly Double Top Pattern: www.thepatternsite.com)
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit (Risk to Reward; 3:1), we have now completed all 9 Selling Tests!
And for the final images, we can see that XTZBTC has a massive downside move, moving to the Mark Down phase from our Selling Tests Analysis:
As well as starting to complete a larger Distribution #2 Structure as described above. Refer to your schematics above if your confused.
Conclusion:
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Not only does the Wyckoff Method teach the novice Investor/Trader the techniques, foundations and methods needed to analyse the market, it also helps create a system and mindframe towards observing and timing the market, which allows the trader to be much more rationalised and organised in their train of thought as well as much more risk averse.
By using the Wyckoff based analysis on Siacoin we can clearly see this token has potential for more upside, although we do need to be cautious as a significant pullback on Bitcoin could easily “Fail” the “Spring” action of the TR (Trading Range) in the original analysis image above.
What would a successful accumulation breakout look like on Siacoin?
Refer to the original chart at the start of the post. I have made a small drawing, describing the characteristics we need to see for this to progress further. You can use that drawing along with the next below to get a rough idea of what a successful breakout will look like, compare with the Accumulation Schematics you studied above.
What would a failure of accumulation look like on Siacoin?
I will give two examples:
1. Failure of Spring
2. Failure of Phase E (Uptrend)
I hope you enjoyed my explanation of the Wyckoff Method - Thank you and if you found this writeup insightful, educational and informative don't forget to hit Subscribe, Like & Comment so others can also potentially see and benefit from this post, if you wish to see these concepts in action, I recommend visiting my signature as well.
Other Resources & References:
-----------------------------------------------------------
Websites:
Wyckoff Analytics: wyckoffanalytics.com
Wyckoff SMI: wyckoffsmi.com
Videos:
Wyckoff Youtube: www.youtube.com
Wyckoff SMI Youtube: www.youtube.com
Stockcharts.com Youtube: www.youtube.com
(I didnt cover volume much in this article, check out the above video for a Volume Tutorial)
Articles:
school.stockcharts.com
school.stockcharts.com
school.stockcharts.com
www.wyckoffanalytics.com
www.wyckoffanalytics.com
Magazine of Wall Street Database:
(Founded by Wyckoff)
shorturl.at
Books:
www.amazon.com
www.amazon.com
References:
en.wikipedia.org
school.stockcharts.com
Why Do You Need a Trading Plan?📝
If you want to become a consistently profitable trader you have two choices:
1️⃣strictly follow your trading plan
or
2️⃣fail.
Trading plan is essential for achieving your financial goals.
It is a set of actions to follow for making trading decisions
guiding you on how to react to certain events.
It reflects your personality and characteristics.
Moreover, its entire structure and content are primarily based on them.
Your way to success will be full of obstacles.
A lot of things will come in your way:
losses, drawdowns, and losing streaks;
mistakes, scams, and emotional decisions.
Only your trading plan will show you a correct path, it ensures you will stay on track on your journey to your desired destination.
When you make a wrong turn, it knows to make adjustments, and it points you back in the right direction.
It is your guard from making any hurried decisions you could later regret.
Trading without a trading plan wouldn’t be a smart idea. You wouldn’t know how to get to your destination and it’s highly likely that you get lost.
Most importantly, if you suck at trading (and you certainly will in the beginning), you will know it is down to one of only two reasons: either there’s a problem in your trading plan or you are not sticking to your trading plan.
Stick to your plan traders. "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail".
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Bearish Pressure Zone (3 Candles In Row With Upper Wicks)Chart example is of a Bearish Pressure Zone:
3 consecutive price bars with upper wicks (VERY strong/either bearish or bullish setups)
Note: Make a zone from top of highest wick to top of highest close with one of the consecutive wicks, this is what you use as you risk or initial stop loss.
Price Action is not about price, but more importantly about decisions other traders/big banks are making related to price action.
Half of Forex trading is psychology (see Mark Douglas- You tube or google him)- might even read and/or buy his trading books.
Wick Psychology: When we have three consecutive bars with overlapping lower or upper shadows, the traders undergo the same emotional cycle three times, all within a compact price range. But these wick bars can be in close area of each other, they do not have to be three in a row, see bullish pressure zone on the attach chart for an example.
Price Pressure Zones :Bearish & BullishTrade Plan:
Locate Buying and selling pressure zones implied by the lower and upper shadows/wicks of candlestick price bars.
These areas have THREE rejection shadows or wicks in a relatively close area or time period.
These pressure zones can be done on 15 minute time frames, but 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts are stronger and more reliable.
Look at attached chart ( do you see numbers 1, 2 and 3? rejection lower shadows or wicks)- this suggest future bullish or buying trading.
* Buy next 1 hour candlestick bar (blue on chart) after the three rejection lower shadows or wicks, with right risk management under your strategy and plan.
Pro Tip:
A strong pressure zone is not defined just by one pin bar!!! These need a minimum of three rejection shadows and/or wicks, which make these zones ones which the big money or big banks have a wall up that they do not want price action to go thru at this time. Never fight big money/banks- trade with them.
Bullish Pressure Zones- Multiple price bars with lower wicks
Bearish Pressure Zones- Multiple price bars with higher wicks
Common Mistake: The buying or selling pressure found on a single price bar might not be sufficiently reliable for a trading setup. Instead of a single bar, look for at least three consecutive bars with overlapping upper or lower shadows. When multiple shadows overlap the create a price zone that is more likely to exhibit the buying or selling pressure you anticipate.
How To Trade Divergence
Divergence simply means separation.. When two similar things things---get separated and start going different directions, you have to consider which direction to follow. That's exactly the concept of divergence. When trading, and you spot a divergence, you want to be sure to understand what they are trying to tell you. In this video, I explain the concept of divergences, how to trade them and what to do when you sight one. Be sure to like, follow and comment.
I want to see those div trades!
Are Wicks Important? Types Of Wicks: Fill, Rejection & ReversalPlease look at your own charts:
Do you see all of the following?
Wick Fills? These type of wicks happen going with the trend and get filled with further price action on chart.
Rejection Wicks? Mostly happen at key support and resistance zones or key quarter theory psychological numbers, a lot of traders have orders there.
Reversal Wicks? Happen at key areas mostly on 1 hour, 4 hr, daily, weekly and even monthly charts- these are areas with large wicks in past which once price action comes into these areas at key resistance and support areas- will accumulate orders and reverse directions.
See attached 1 hour charts----
How many different types of wicks can you see and/or spot.... you need to see quarter theory psychological numbers in actually real live time when trading Forex. Always start with monthly charts and keep going lower until you are trading with the chart of your choosing. Higher time frames will give you better risk to reward opportunities then under 1 hour...
If you truly understand wicks- you will be a better trader and know if you scalp trade, day trade or position trade when to look for quick wick fill candles to catch some quick pips. These are the easy Forex trades to do, make sure you are trading during high liquidity and volume time periods only.