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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index FuturesMM

Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures

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MES1! trade ideas

ES Futures Market Outlook & Key LevelsCME_MINI:ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here. Rollover Notice: Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025. Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , FOMC press conference , and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025. Key Levels to Watch: • Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25 • Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805 • Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75 • Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25 Market Scenarios: Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put") The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections. Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0 If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
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by EdgeClear
ES, Mar 17, 2025 CME_MINI:ES1! swept September’s low, clearing major sell-side liquidity before starting to reverse. I’m anticipating a push through the 4H FVG, inverting it, and then a retracement into it early this week (March 17th/18th). If price holds above, we could see continuation higher, but failure to hold the FVG as support may lead to another leg lower. The Weekly FVG remains a key resistance — multiple taps could weaken it for a potential breakout later in March.
CLong
by dekatrades
2
ES1! Intraday levels for 16-17 March Oh no! Here are the levels for ES1! tonight/tomorrow. Sorry for the poor graphics, it seems Tradingview has uh, prevented publishing ideas with "private" indicators overlaid. Unfortunately my levels are exported from secondary software for overlay on Tradingview via pinescript so it really makes sharing ideas much more difficult. I understand the reason but for the rare person like me who uses Pine just for plotting functions its a real hassle, so I beg you Tradingview to reconsider! haha Okay, anyway now that that is out of the way, I am very neutral for the session tonight/tomorrow. I expect moves in both directions, and keep in mind we have FOMC on Wednesday. The probability metrics favour the downside targets but don't think its unreasonable to expect both upside and downside targets. Looking for it to snag either resistance of support first before taking a position this evening. Good luck everyone! Safe trades!!! 🚀
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by Steversteves
S&P 500 (March Contract) - Stock Market Loses $5 Trillion!The S&P 500′s rapid 10% decline from a record high into correction territory has wiped out trillions of dollars in market value. The market value of the S&P 500 at its Feb. 19 peak was $52.06 trillion, according to FactSet. Thursday’s decline put the index’s market value down to $46.78 trillion. That makes for a total loss of about $5.28 trillion in about three weeks. Will the rate announcements cause S&P 500 to sink lower into the abyss?? Reference: www.cnbc.com
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by LegendSince
Weekly Market Analysis - 16th March 2025 (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC)This is weekly market analysis of a few pairs (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC). I haven't done one of these in a while, but here it is! I would have done more pairs but the video was already 30 minutes long and I went into more teaching rather than pure analysis. I hope you found it insightful to your own trading, because what I teach is the truth of the market regardless of whatever specific strategy you use for trading. Anything can make money in the markets, but of course, risk management and discipline rule all. - R2F Trading
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by Road_2_Funded
Why DCA Does Not Work For Short-Term TradersIn this video I go through why DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) does not work for short-term traders and is more suitable for investors. I go through the pitfalls than come through such techniques, as well as explain how trading should really be approached. Which at it's cost should be based on having a positive edge and using the power of compounding to grow your wealth. I hope this video was insightful, and gives hope to those trying to make it as a trader. Believe me, it's possible. - R2F Trading
CEducation
by Road_2_Funded
8
SPY shortsThe chart displays the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4-hour timeframe) with technical analysis indicators. Key features include: Current Price: 5,628.25 (SELL) and 5,629.25 (BUY). Recent Movement: The price recently bounced from a low and is projected to reach 5,676.00 by March 17, 2025, before potentially dropping to 5,392.50 by March 24, 2025, reflecting a decline of -283.50 points (-4.99%) in 7 days. Fibonacci Levels: 0.5 retracement levels at 5,836.25 and 5,641.75. Extension levels indicate potential further declines below 5,352.00 and 5,253.75. Pivot Points: Marked at multiple levels (e.g., 5,935.50 and 6,166.50) for resistance and support. Volume: 410.25K with a daily gain of +112.50 points (+2.04%). Projection: The blue arrow suggests a bearish outlook after a short-term rise, with a significant price drop expected. This chart is likely part of a trading strategy based on Fibonacci retracements, pivots, and projected price movements.
CShort
by huahuajhu
Full recovery on the way? Perhaps...As I stated in my last observation, the "bottom" held and the S&P e-mini's began to move up reaching a .236 retracement at 5639. Considering the damage from the last few weeks, it was a welcome and much needed recovery. Looking forward, I expect a continuation of the market to chop higher heading to the next important level of 5709, or a .382 retracement. There was so much damage to so many stocks that it would be hard to expect much more than this, but given the highly emotional way people sold into this down move, there should be an equally emotional move higher as FOMO kicks in and investors reluctantly buying many of the same companies they recently sold: wash sale rules be damned.
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by rzacuto
1
A look at the ES1!What's up traders, Havent posted in a while. Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500) Current Outlook Technical Look: Momentum Bearish -323.25 (looks weak) MACD Bearish, possibly inflecting RSI 36.72, off lows and crossing MA (oversold) 200D SMA at 5775.75 (Below the 50 Day) 50D SMA at 5967.43 (Above the 200 Day) Trending towards a Death Cross Price Action Bullish Engulfing Candle on the March 14 bounce. Price successfully crossed the 5600 Psychological Level We bounced at ~5500 Experiencing resistance in the 5640-5620 Range (expected) Sentiment Canada showed promise as heading towards a (take your best guess at the details) resolution to the tariff fight with the united states. Tariffs remain a major drag on the stock market pricing. Government shut down at time of this post, is apparently narrowly avoided. Gold Set a new high. Outlook for Next Week Economic Reports Monday - Retail Sales 830AM Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts 830AM Wednesday - Fed Int Rate Decision 2PM, JPOW Speech 230PM Thursday - Existing home sales 10AM Notable Earnings Reports Micron Nike Fed Ex General Mills Carinval Cruise NIO Tencent I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative. A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA. I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality. I have been adding long term holds - such as: GDX DAX META GOOG AMZN BABA UNH C CRWD IBIT NVO CMG INDA AVGO I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield. Resistance possibly at: 5672 August 2024 Resistance, September 2024 Support 5724 July 2024 Resistance and later Support 5775 (200 Day SMA)
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by WillNixTrading
Will ES go more deeper ?The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) exhibited a liquidation profile (Profile A), characterized by two distinct distributions. The subsequent session (Profile B) formed a balanced profile and remained entirely below the lower distribution of Profile A, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Profile C emerged as a short-covering profile, with its upper boundary testing the high of Profile B by a minimal margin. Both Profile B and C exhibited trading activity around the lower distribution of Profile A without breaching its low. Profiles A, B, and C established a base at the C Line, identified as a longer-term support or demand zone. Yesterday's session (Profile D) also presented a liquidation profile, briefly trading below the C Line before recovering and maintaining balance around this level. The market demonstrates reluctance for further downside, with lower prices consistently triggering short-covering rallies rather than initiating new selling. Even though Profile D traded lower, it did not exhibit significant selling conviction. Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, including the ongoing tariff disputes and the unresolved Ukraine-Russia conflict, further liquidation during today's Regular Trading Hours (RTH) remains a possibility. However, sustained buying interest above the balance of Profile C, driven by short covering and new long positions, would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment towards accumulation on a higher timeframe. The market's behavior during today's RTH session will be crucial in determining the next directional move.
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by ruby_kinetix