Derivati_Capital

Derivati_Capital

The recent correction in SXPUSD was part of a market wide event triggered by volatility in BTCUSDT . We have now been squeezed into a range bound consolidation. Potential outcomes in the short term: Remain range bound and essentially pegged to price action on BTCUSDT . Prevailing uptrend loses intensity, but not necessarily invalidated. Maintain...

Derivati_Capital Updated 

Break of the hourly 50MA will confirm a price correction, bounce confirms continued expansion toward the 27.00 level. Confirmation of wedge pattern should be looked at as an opportunity to go LONG at a good entry.

Derivati_Capital

Airline fundamentals are horrible for the rest of 2020, with earnings expected to go DEEP negative (we're talking potential bankruptcy level negative). 50MA and 100MA well below 200MA. Descending triangle pattern offers well defined stop level. Few ways I'm considering to play this position: |Chicken Short| Short 100 shares, buy 25 CALL expiring Sep. 18,...

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Looking for long entries around 52 (or 48.5 if 52 breaks).

Derivati_Capital

Was playing around with oscillators the other day and noticed something interesting on the weekly BTCUSD chart: Weekly RSI under 30 has been an excellent indicator of bear market capitulations. Are we due for more downside before we can take another shot at those peaks of irrational exuberance? If so, this setup should be very useful for sniffing out a...

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Symmetrical triangle pattern in BTC and SPX, waiting for a breakout. Looks like bullish momentum is fading and we are headed for corrective territory. BTC has the potential to explode higher, but I just don't see it for the SPX... there are too many fundamental factors on the table to currently justify passing 3000 without more "trade talks going well!" nonsense.

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TLT has outperformed SPX by roughly 6% at time of writing. Many factors: FED cushioning rates, yield chasing by entities in negative-yield countries, fears of global slowdown, escalating trade war, and the perceived invincibility of U.S. markets. There could be a seriously nasty rate spike within the next 2 years. As yields drop there is less incentive for...

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FED has begun a cycle of rate cuts although they don't want us catching that idea. Trump is downright determined to get the FFR back to 0% as quickly as possible, going so far as to demand the FED to cut rates 100bps at yesterday's meeting. Powell made clear that the FED doesn't want to turn this into a "trend of rate cuts" but that they would take appropriate...

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Fisher and very overbought CCI are indicating a pullback to occur within 2-3 days, probably to the 279-281 level where local support sits. Setting up some call credit spreads near ATH and looking to go long the dip.

Derivati_Capital Updated 

Plenty of bad news coming out on this one. Cancellation of a factory in China, reduced government funding for electronic vehicle (EV) development, and profitability going ever into the abyss. If this thing behaves anything like TSLA, we could see a nice bounce here. But why? The EV space is rife with optimism and hope due to the disruptive nature of its...

Derivati_Capital Updated 

This sure looks familiar, doesn't it? CRON has a lot more going for it than TLRY, but we still lack justification for this recent rush up. Too high maaaan, it got too highhhh. Notice the uptick in buying and selling volume here recently - this is typical in the end of a bubble cycle. Also notice the downward cypher pattern we are setup to form. Bought a 50...

Derivati_Capital Updated 

The game-plan since December has been to prop these markets up at all costs; the PPT joined with the 6 largest wall street banks, Trump called a "buy the dip", the FED turned dovish, and off to the races we went. For the DOW to continue higher, they need Boeing to be propped up. I envision a classic blame misdirection onto GE/Safran, the manufacturer of the...

Derivati_Capital Updated 

Some slightly bearish indicators to start the week off.100-hour VWMA has essentially been flat for almost two weeks, bearish divergence on the 100-hour CCI and fisher transform. Looking for a pullback to or below the $279 level before going long SPY/QQQ April calls for the FOMC meeting. With the FED, the president and the banks working in coordination to...

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Breakout about the 100 day VWMA and CCI is crawling out of the hole, another rush upwards is in the works. To what point is anyone's guess. Personally not going to buy in unless it has a nice pullback toward the 2.00 level. Best to play this like anything else - with patience and discipline.

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Price has tripled in 3 months despite negative earnings. Double top formation at the 15.7 level. IPO lockup period has expired. Bearish divergence on oscillators. Qutoutiao Could Dip When IPO Lockup Expires

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100-day CCI has turned positive, 50-day VWMA now has a positive slope, positive volume is dominating the past few trading days and price has finally crossed above the 50-VWMA. We have not seen these indicators positive in about five months, a sign that there is upside potential here in the medium to long term. Accumulation/Distribution thrown in for good...

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Indicators point to a bounce off of low risk entry. Look at all that sell volume that hits like a hammer - smells like opportunity. Hitting the strong support of 15.00 on dying volume. CCI, RSI and strong support are on favorable terms for a low risk long at this position. Banks love dumping those futures to acquire physical at the cheap.

Derivati_Capital

This market is full of uncertainty. It runs around looking for stimulus after the "trade talk progress" no longer makes it happy inside. It needs answers to the bad data, the contradictions found between fact and fiction; facts of economic slowdown coupled with the fictional, false narrative that the economy is strong. Market needs a strong daddy. I expect more...