To me it looks like the market is getting ok with where the market is, and that is not good for equities. Usually a drop in the vix like this has coincided with a rally in the market. As you can see, we have been dropping and vix has been to. Think about it. Next move in vix is likely higher, what does that mean for stocks?
The tests of TL and 200 appear to be shortening in time-frame (bearish) while also losing RSI bullish divergences (bearish). I think we haven't seen real capitualation yet and we will need to break TL & 200 day then retest Feb low before we can have a true bottom.
They screw day traders left and right. Only ones who benefit are LT longs and the commission houses.
Notice the theme. Most all markets, spy/qqq/iwm pulled back to key support levels. reaction will be critical. bounce or break or bounce then break or New ath's?
Next week should be very interesting. A shame I'll be in Peru the whole week. Good Luck!!
a 30 multiple on $8 forward earnings gives you 240. If earnings just peaked for the cycle, do you want to buy it here? Looks like a rounding top, watch trendlines.
Is this a problem for spreads? Extreme OB reading on Monthly chart and at LT downtrend line. Is the LT trend over now? If so, may be a problem for market
Does the 10-2's continue on to negative area, which is usually predictive of a market being close to top or is it at a bottom right here? Financial stocks not reacting well to stellar earnings. Some negative divergence on RSI. Is the tolerance level due to massive debt now higher? What do you think @allstarcharts I'm torn. History has shown that this becomes...
For every positive @allstarcharts is putting out, I can put out a negative. he does have breadth on his side though.
Small and micros have been ripping, but are we seeing another H& S top formation, like SMH and QQQ?
I sticking with my plan, but starting to doubt the strength of rally and ability to attain my short target zone. Global economies are peaking and weakening. libor is a major issue few are focusing on. Dollar weakness is bad, because it encourages our CB'ers to con't to raise rates = bad
I'm looking at the futures because it gives me a cleaner look than spy. This is how I see it playing out, and my plan for it. I will be legging into my short at Option A zone with a 60% position, with remaining 40% being entered into near option B or upon failure at A. using sell stops. Good luck and I hope this helps someone.