need to watch this closely. breaking TL and under 200 day....again. could still resolve to upside, but I would be careful her It is also a leading indicator for the market.
I would put this as the most likely outcome. We are below TL again, if support breaks then a flood of selling could come. EIA today is very important. if it supports api then I would expect the weekly low to be tested.
This is something to keep an eye on. Equal weight is losing steam vs the index. Usually an indicator of future top coming. This can diverge for a long time. See 2000 top. 2007 divergence was not near as long as that. I don't think you'll get near the heads up as those prior two instances.
this shouldn't be correlated to such a significant degree. Not sure why it's happening now. I thought maybe there was some Iran news today, but looks like Algo's went wild when support held in SPY and carried over to crude. I hate algo's the markets would be a better place w/o them. ugh!
If it weren't for the Trade war and Iran issues, this would probably be at 60 or lower. Risk is on the bulls here. Technically Long, fundamentally bear. I'm trading light short positions till trend breaks then heavy. Still looks like 64-66 will be tested. That is where buyers will have to step in. may switch back to long there, but with very tight stops and...
Looks like semi's are losing relative strength to the market and to qqq's. it's a "do nothing" till it breaks out of the paceman pattern. Can you see it? LOL. Wait for it to eat the white dot and picks a direction
We could be seeing the end of this bull run. Keep a close eye and closer stops on this.
There are two potential topping patterns forming this week. Wave 5 from megaphone and a potential Evening Star candlestick pattern. I would expect prices to fall further. 68 and possible 66. Will reevaluate . I know we still have a day to go for pattern confirmation, but I'm headed on vaca so doing early.
I decide to step back and study the chart w/a clear mind and forget about fundamental situation and this is how I see it. If right, we could still make a marginally higher high but should head down from here.
could this be an intraday rounding top in crude. thinking a test of 69-70 is possible
Gold looks like it could bounce some here and miners held up fairly well during selloff in $gld
Will be interesting to look back on this chart and see what happens.
We are severely OB now and near some key resistance. I think we have a zone from 69.20 to 70.00 that has not had proper price discovery/auction and we could revisit this soon. It would not invalidate the Bullish trend. I am still LT biased to short side unless we clear the highs on good volume. Shorts can be taken, but extreme caution. Use your stops wisely. ...
Why aren't they buying energy stocks on this huge $7.00 10% ramp in crude? Hhhmm
This spread looks like it will continue to narrow to 5 area I think. Could lend further strength to WTI
I wasn't confident in trade so didn't post till after fact. I've already covered short. Sorry! Not sure where this goes now will watch it trade for a while. If it gets above 68 upside opens up dramatically. Sentiment is very bullish and retail is very long so I would be careful with longs.
So, they have tried to push crude through 66 twice and got rejected with heavy selling. I would LOOOVE for it to fill that incomplete auction area around 66.30-.50 but not sure they can do it. I feel the prevailing fundamentals from a global slow down will weigh on future demand. Tarif's and uncertainty adding to the problem. We shall see.