If you've traded this well and not gotten stopped out multiple times, then cudo's to you.
Wedging out. follow the break in either direction. I think to downside. Sentiment still very bullish
Looks like we could be bear flagging again. R/R favors bears. Looking for 62 possibly 60 or lower. Upside risk is to 68 possibly 70. Max 4.5 up Max 5.5+ down
Until this is able to get above and close above the blue arrow resistance, this is a short.
Looks to me like everyone is piling into xlk. Look at the chart for $msft $aapl $amzn $nvda $nflx They all look virtually the same. No individual price discovery, just mob mentality. Be careful. all have negative RSI divergences. When everybody is on one side of the boat.....
Rising wedge and weekly negative divergence in RSI. Looks like weak participation here. Would not be aggressively long here. $smh looks weaker.
has consolidated for most part in the 66-67.25 zone, except for that ridiculous pop to 68.50 on arab emirates attempt to prop it up, to no avail. Next leg down is to 65.30 then 64.
Bearish RSI divergence and price moving back below recent highs puts this in the false breakdown warning category. Another negative for semi's
$SMH Looking like a H&S top, Intel has a rising wedge and Amat just puked. Is the top in for semi's? Starting to look like it to me. $qqq also looking like it has topped, what does this mean for overall market?
Not a person I can find is bearish crude oil, nor should they be....yet There are some warning signs though. High bullish consensus, rising wedge and bearish RSI divergence on daily. Something to watch very closely. My take is that we may get a small "shake-out" pullback before we move to mid 70's.
Don't believe that made up .2% inflation number in April cpi. Raise your hand if you think we come in under .3 in May cpi.
I think this continues to back-in-fill and maybe consolidate at a higher level before breaking solidly to new highs. need to build some more short-interest and pessimism
Despite all the euphoria about taking out last high, remember we did that once before and then collapsed. Despite the ascending triangle in small caps, we aren't out of the woods yet on spy.http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_continuation
After being bearish for a while, todays action changes the complexion of the market for me. I think small caps do some back-n-filling then eventually breakout of bullish ascending wedge formation.
Due to the bullish pattern developing in small caps. Ascending pattern. I think we break out in s&p after some back-n-filling to prior resistance.
Looking at the equal weight index of $spy we don't see nearly the bullish setup as market weighted. Large cap $aapl and others is skewing the index as usual. I'm looking at putting back a sizeable short around 2715 on e-mini's
I don't just mean for Investment grade bonds. This will have a profound impact on $spy as well. Co's have been borrowing cheap to buy back stock and issue dividends. This manufactured earnings era will come to an end. Without buybacks, the market will struggle. We will see a recession again, probably withing 12-18 months. How much forward demand has been...
I drew these lines quite some time ago. Patting myself on the ack ;-). anyway, we need to watch the negative divergence that has developed at the top. It might be that we have a deeper pullback in rates than suspected. If so, I'm not sure this will be a positive catalyst for stock, it might mean that the cycle has peaked as have earnings. Which is my thesis.