10 Year German bond yield topped10 Year German bond yield topped. Lower yields ahead. Buy bonds.Shortby T-r-XUpdated 9
US 10Y TREASURY: peaking at 3.8%? During the previous week the US Treasury yields were under influence of both debt-ceiling ongoing negotiations without an actual deal, and posted PCE data. As officially released data on PCE shows higher than expected monthly output of 0.4%, it heated expectations of market participants that the Fed will most probably continue with further rate increases of 25 bps in June`s meeting. Reaction of the market was an increase of Treasury yields, where 10Y bond yields increased from 3.6% up to 3.8%. Insecurity is still high on the market, so it might be expected that bond yields will stay elevated during the following period of time. At this moment, there is no indication on charts that yields might go higher, reaching 4%, so at this moment there is a sort of peak at level of 3.8%. Still, if the Fed continues to increase interest rates, a 4% might easily become a target of 10Y bonds. For the week ahead the most important to watch is potential debt-negotiation deal, as the US might enter into default as soon as June 5th, as per Treasury Secretary Yellen. Hopefully, this will not be the end scenario. If deal is accomplished, the yields might revert a bit to the downside, probably to the level of 3.6%. by XBTFX14
US10Y Approaching the top of the Channel Down. Sell opportunity.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below): Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted lines) involved and the maximum technical top that the price can make without breaking any pattern is the top of the Rectangle (4.090% Resistance). That will be our 2nd and final sell entry. Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which is approaching the overbought barrier (70.00) just like on February 21. Our bearish strategy targets the May 04 Low at 3.300%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Shortby TradingShot111114
$US02Y Failed Bear Flag TVC:US02Y Failed Bear Flag on the weekly chart, the best moves come from failed moves. Expect this move to break through the horizontal line,. Longby AlgoTradeAlert5
British yields above resistance levelVery simple chart showing parallel channel of the UK bond market trending down since the 1980s with the yellow line at 4.2% seeming to be a key line of historic resistance. Back in October 2022 the UK bond market had a severe problem which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Liz Truss. The issue was causing pension funds to experience extreme financial stress. The Bank of England had to come to the rescue and buy Gilts. The level we are at now on this 10 year yield is nearly the same.by MrAndroid5
Turkey Euro BondGood opportunity to buy emerging market bond, there is a miss price due to turkey election Longby ahmedanwar1474
10 Year Yield US NotesThis chart depicts bearish concerns by the bond traders. They have been considered the smartest traders on the street for many decades. This chart pattern is undergoing a major test This chart eventually controls the direction of the stock market. by jdouglas020Updated 5
Short Term Bond Yields Setting Up to Crash along with the DollarThe 3 Month Bill is currently breaking down and backtesting a Rising Wedge after Bearishly Diverging at some extreme highs while the DXY has also broken below a long term trend line and is backtesting the S/R Zone and Moving Averages as Resistance. I have expectations that both of them will crash majorly in the coming weeks to months.Shortby RizeSenpai9
look what bond prices did herebond prices just recently broke their downtrend they are in since dept limit irritations came up. That means money is just flowing back into bonds again and this could be bottom.Longby MrKrft4
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so. Enough said, pattern recognition checked, trend correlation checked, projection based on hypothesis checked... now the rubber hits the road. Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide. HEADS UP!by Auguraltrader6
GB10Y - pensions at risk?Here show similarities of 2007, before the 2008 financial collapse! both show reaching their peak, pulling back then heading towards retracement level's. 2007 couldn't hold the 0.702 retracement, bond price reversed and took out the low's. 23/05/23. today we are heading for the same scenario! will be waiting to see if we can break and hold the 0.702, if not then I would expect the same pattern to play out. this would weaken pension's, the value of the pound and cause liquidity issues. BOE already said back in October 2022, that they would step in and double there purchase's, but this would be the last time. expecting more strength in the pound on the shorter timeframe, if we see another leg down from the DXY (US Dollar). Debt ceiling coming up June 1st. i think its likely they'll raise the debt ceiling. this will create more liquidity, plus inflation will start to creep up. may see more banking liquidity issue's banks balance sheets will be heavily leveraged in bonds/gilts. Uk may need to keep raising rate's against the falling pound. united states will have extra liquidity to bail out banks. (if they raise the debt ceiling) this is when i would expect stag-flation to occur, combination of pausing rate hike's, whilst also creating extra liquidity to support failing banks. interesting times ahead, will be looking at these resistance level's as an indication on what come's next for the pound! by dibz19963
Uk gilts trend upUk gilts are getting stronger... for moment trend upULongby diegotrader9988Updated 0
10Y Yield Heading to 5.0% & 6.5%?Check out the AI patterns and my trend lines and see what you think... we've definitely broken the long-term down trend which everyone said would collapse.. pretty much everything, lol.Longby lazytrade4
Target 3.01Following weekly chart. This week we're nearly getting a short signal, posting earlier but I am nearly sure about the signal. TP1 3.26 TP2 3.01 SL 4.1 - Please wait for weekly close. Shortby omurdenUpdated 222
US10Y : 100 and 200 meetsThe chart above explains. Great implication for those FX pairs that follows yield - JPY :) Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.Shortby i_am_siewUpdated 3
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% is far away?The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that monetary data are still not justifying the halt in Fed's rate hike. Market reaction was imminent, so the 10Y Treasuries surged by 7 bps to the highest weekly level at 3.72%. Still, yields are finishing the week around short-term support at $3.6%. As long as insecurity in markets holds, and further rate hikes are not clearly communicated with the market, it could be expected for 10Y Treasuries to be elevated. The major resistance line at 3.6% has been breached on Friday. This means that the market will start week ahead by testing this level for some time. On the other hand, news on the debt-ceiling negotiations would certainly have an impact on Treasury yields, which might bring some volatility back on the market. On the opposite side, a clear break of 3.6% resistance has opened a way for a 4% next resistance. It should not be expected for this level to be reached in the week ahead, but in case that Fed continues with rate increases, a 4% might easily become the next target. by XBTFX16
$US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly TVC:US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly chart, its bullish until it fails. Interest rates going higher will be a problem for stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:METALongby AlgoTradeAlert3
Towards 10.650%!?-If we take into account that we form a nice head and shoulders at the bottom of the pandemic, prices would certainly seek the region of 10.65% of the US government's 10-year bond. -If we consider the neck region as the starting point for tracing the fate of prices, we will have this bizarre thing happening, an explosion in "treasurys". -On the weekly chart we have a pivot high that wants to form and is targeting the most recent top at 4.350%. -Going down a little further, on the daily chart, the pivot that had formed on 05/12/2023 is about to reach the golden region of the FIB at 3,780%. -We have the long average right below, and it could serve as support. We have Congress about to approve the new limit for the spending ceiling and if it is approved, it may be necessary to raise interest rates again. -We have an unknown soon, which is: Will interest rates explode? -Do your analyzes and good deals. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic reviews!by MacD_Bollinger2210
US10Y Still room to rise but be ready to short the top.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again: Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the first since August 25 2021, ensures that the long-term trend remains bearish. As a result, buy the rest of this bullish Lower High leg and be ready to sell again at the top of the original (blue) Channel Down. If the 1D RSI gets rejected on the dashed Lower Highs trend-line, consider the potential of an early top and sell again. Our target for end of July is 3.150%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇by TradingShot18
British bonds smell of fried! Something bad is happening in the state market. bonds of England - these papers have been actively sold over the past month. During this period, the yield on them increased by as much as 1%. Because of this, we see how the market is already beginning to arrive in some kind of stress: the dollar index is growing, other bonds of developed countries are also being sold, because of this stress, gold also gets it, as central banks are forced to sell off reserves in order to support the nat. currencies and the bond market. Something suggests that panic-sells in risky assets may begin on the market very soon. This will hit equities hard and likely hit crypto hard too. Friends, it’s worth tying up with longs for now, and it’s even better to fix them in profit out of harm’s way. Clouds are gathering over risky assets, prepare umbrellas and shorts, a storm is coming! Shortby Dorado_Crypto3
1d log scaleIn all the graphs, the increase in commodities and the decrease in interest rates are evident. Buy commodities with a buy position.Shortby Ali_13772
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VConditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line. Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line). Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed. Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc. Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen. So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.by AuguraltraderUpdated 3
6 Month Yield HIGHER than when banks collapsed!🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bondsby ROYAL_OAK_INC3