10YR-3MO Inversion (Daily) - 01/11/2023Well this keeps looking worse! Many follow the 10-2y, some prefer this 10y-3mo yield curve. They are both inverted pretty deep. This is often a key leading recession indicator.Longby Markets-Sniper0
Bitcoin fractal on French 10Y government bond yieldBitcoin fractal (from 2021 top) on French 10Y government bond yield Pretty accurate so far lets see how it goesby EdHeenok0
2-year Treasury yield: hang in there, buddy!As long as we do not see RSI (daily, 14d) prints below 35, I wouldn't call for a trend reversal in years - maybe we'll see 4.00%, but I doubt we'll see 2-year yields come in more. Strategy long = long yields, i.e. short the 2-year Treasury bond. Longby TheEggerFund0
US10y vs FED rate. Should u put $ into bank or buy gold? 10/Jan/US2Y and 10Y bonds yields always “follow” FED rate paths. Now we “see” some “experts” encouraged us to “save” money into banks (especially USD denominated a.c) to gain higher rate. Hope to enjoy high fixed guaranteed return like early 1980s which was above 10%!!! Looking at those chart and gold price do you think “fixed deposits “ into bank is “worth” as investments?by SteveTan222
Micro Drift Patterns One of the more powerful but under-appreciated categories of patterns are very short term drift patterns in strongly trending markets. Flags, pennants and small lateral trading ranges can all fall into this category. The patterns are fractal, that is, they appear across all time frames. I find small multi drift patterns invaluable. First, they are ubiquitous. They appear in virtually all trends and time frames. Second, their completion affirms that underlying trend remains intact. Finally, the manner in which they develop, for instance, the slope, extent and volume of the counter trend move can all offer clues as to the underlying strength of the trend. Most strong trends unfold in a push - drift - push pattern, sprinting quickly in the direction of the trend, accruing a short term overbought or oversold, and then drifting counter to the sprint. As these patterns "drift" against the prevailing trend, they alleviate the short term overbought or oversold condition that accrued during the sprint. You can think of the drift as a "pause that refreshes." It is important that the market DRIFT. The best examples contain overlapping price ranges (in whatever perspective you are working in) and don't typically retrace much of the prior sprint. Volume should generally decline throughout the pattern, particularly if the pattern builds over 5-10 periods. The best examples have substantial range overlap from day to day. The classic literature requires a sharp move, or a flag pole, for these patterns to fly from, a decline in volume as the pattern builds and that the pattern last no more than 10-15 bars. In my experience, finding drift patterns that fill all these "requirements'' is difficult. My personal approach minimizes the requirements. As long as the pattern occurs after a decent thrust (I prefer the thrust to go to new high or low ground) and then drifts against the prevailing trend, I can use it to develop either a fresh entry to the prevailing trend or simply as a validation of the underlying trend. Importantly, the pattern is typically better defined in the chart of one perspective lower. For instance, drift patterns in the weekly chart can be better seen on the daily chart, and drift patterns on the daily, in the hourly. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksEducationby CMT_Association2929268
Japan 10Y Gov Bonds 1D long targetHigh likelihood that a reversal will happen when the price touches the 1D Cosmic Channel LIte resistance line, or that line gets highlighted as the price enters the indicator's topmost internal level.Longby cosmic_indicators2
January 2023 projectionOn July 6th 2022, the 2s / 10s yield curve inverted, and it has widened its gap since then. An inversion of the 2-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to two years. On May 27th 2022, US02Y piRSI levels were oversold the same as they are now on December 15th 2022. From May 27th - June 14th 2022, US02Y piRSI spiked and so too did the rate from 2.48% - 3.37%. Yesterday, FOMC Jerome Powell publicly stated that the peak rate will be higher for longer in order to minimize risk of a protracted bout with elevated inflation. The new batch of quarterly projections from Fed policymakers shows the key overnight lending rate rising to 5.1% in 2023 and easing to 4.1% in 2024. The Fed now expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% next year as GDP growth slows to zero. Wednesday 12/14/22, tickerTracker MFI crossed under the 50 level for ETF's SPY, DIA, QQQ & IWM. With all things considered, including Christmastime market seasonality and the above mentioned fundamental and technical analysis. The probability for January 2023 is for US20Y to spike up and US equity markets to go down as the new fear will be a downgraded MegaCap earnings season with recession looming on the horizon. Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.comby Options360Updated 442
US 2 Year Starting To Creep HigherThis melt-up in the 2yr has seen the breaks put on in the stock rally. Have to see how things look after January. The Fed might remain more hawkish for longer than expected.by TheTradersBias1
Potential bull flag pattern formation 1D timeframe on US10Yjust sharing a potential bull flag pattern formation on the daily timeframe for US10Y. current candle bounces on the 0.5 fib level, would affect negatively for stocks and BTC if this plays out. Longby KinsfatherUpdated 1
BONDS YIELD PREDICTION!!!!! US02YDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis for 2 year bond yield on the Daily Timeframe. POINTS: 1. Since the beginning of this upward trend on January 2022 we have seen that bonds and the overall market are said to share an inverse relationship but during pivotal moments that has not been the case as you can see that the stock market has risen along with bonds and vise versa . 2. Deviation in SUPLY & DEMAND POCKETS is clearly shown to be every 1% RISE IN YIELDS . (Refer to BLUE & ORANGE Horizontal Lines) 3. Before entry is made into a new DEMAND POCKET price action has a distinctive pump that has occurred several times. (Refer to white lines between SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS). 4. Predicted rise was formulated by using the average of previous last two pumps of +40.92% and +54.21% = +48% when rounded. 5. Average does in fact coincide with previous point of resistance when bond yields rose to 6% in the early 2000's. (A POINT THAT I WOULD CONSIDER TO BE A PIVOT POINT) 6. When you observe MACD we can also conclude that downward pressure is looking for relief like in past occasions. SCENARIO #1: Bond Yields continue to rise and follow uptrend into early 2023 which can then signify that a market bottom is yet to be confirmed. SCENARIO #2: Bond Yields break crucial SUPPORT OF 4.000% and will invalidate current setup. Possibly being followed by capitulation in the stock market since falls in yields seem to be more closely tied to falls in the overall market than the inverse relationship. TVC:US02Yby DGSTBROKERACC4
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown. Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!by Atareum-ir1
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study. Longby konhow117
US10Y - US03MThis is another thing that is getting everyone EXCITED. It is going to invert soon. Once that happen, as you can see in the past, the Fed will PIVOT. Analysis also indicated that the MOVE Index shown previously will hit a new low the same time this 10y03m inverts. THE FED TYPICALLY CUTS RATES ON AVERAGE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE MOVE REACHES BOTTOM. So do you think the Fed will Pivot??? All I can say is expect more volatility this coming weeks. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.by i_am_siewUpdated 2
2 y 5 y 10 y bonds butterfly idea and historical returns hello does anyone find me please an historical returns of a butterfly spread as follow - long 1 2 years bond short 2 5 years bond long 1 10 years bond. Does that make sense ? It is a combination of 3 legs , using 3 instruments. I am looking for some history and historical returns . Thnak youby DORMAN51
2Yr Yield creeping up slowly$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are now NEUTRAL. EDIT: Keep in mind that in BULL MARKETS items can remain OVERBOUGHT for long periods of time. by ROYAL_OAK_INCUpdated 0
GB05Y - A show of hands!UK 5 YEAR GOVT BONDS YIELD It is recommended to wait for confirmation by show of hand on the asset; the three successive bearish candles occurring at the region below the rising TL may be indicating something.... too soon to call? Suspicions are that the main leagues are not yet ready to fully liquidate, that they may have banked some profits and reloaded with discount; simple shark meal as usual - not a difficult life or decision considering the massive capital and first-hand access to new information. If you feel so inclined, please leave your thoughts in the comments section below. Heed your DD!by FroggyFX0
Yield curve vs SPXMarket crash comes when yield curve starts rising again. Currently, it's going down. Eventually it'll consolidate and start rising again. That's when you sell My estimate is Sept / Oct 2023.Longby brian76830
TA indicesTA indices, Quants, monthly's, weekly's, Fib level/-time, EW count, scenario's bullish/bearish.by Helliot_Vermogensbeheer0
Next Recession ProjectionDescription The purpose of this idea is, based on past recessions, to try to predict when the next one could occur. Many factors could influence the future, but for now, we will focus on two of the most known indicators to predict a recession, the Yield Curve Inversion(ICV) and the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. Usually, when the ICV stays below 0 for a period of time, it indicates that a recession will occur in the future. As can be seen, this indicator predicted the last three recessions: '90, '00, and '08. The ’20 recession is excluded. Moreover, the SPX chart is added to reference where the markets could go. The projection is indicated with pink color. Yield Curve Inversion Period The ICV period ranges between the time when the ICV went below 0% and the time of the last touch to 0%. The average for the last three periods is 425D. We are in the current period for 183D. Usually, while the ICV is below 0%, there is a high chance that the FED will not increase the interest rate or even pivot, as seen in that #1 and #2 periods. #1: 455D #2: 304D #3: 516D Projected: #4: 426D SPX While the ICV is below 0%, the SPX moved on sideways or even upwards. US Interest Rate The average for the last three periods is 253D. #1: 120D #2: 214D #3: 426D Projected: #4: 243D Sahm Rule Recession Indicator According to this indicator, once the ICV touches the last time 0%, there is a delay until the effects of a recession are seen. The average for the last three periods is 244D. #1: 214D #2: 213D #3: 307D Projected: #4: 244D Conclusion A recession could start at the beginning of 2024. This would also coincide with the Presidential Cycle theory, where the third year of the US presidential mandate is more bullish than bearish, and the fourth year is more bearish than bullish. Please keep in mind that this is purely speculation based on previous data, and there are many other factors that can change the outcome. by EthanOS7
2yr Treasury note yield, a Monthly look MACD has done a nice job of highlighting the 2yr treasury note yield cycle tops over the past decades. Will be interesting to see how this one works out. by IslandJOBUpdated 3
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here? While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government. Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” . Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles. Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward: U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊 What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates? Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy? Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼 by kylemusserco227
What is wrong with USA marketI now expect the US05y bond market to go down. Interesting that I trade short US500 down and many US companies. Where will the money flow to?Shortby TradeWave070
30Y German bond has hit resistanceTwo resistances have been hit, we will potentially go lowerby nnxx4