Bund vs German 10 y yieldsLast of the year and a greatful new year for all people out there. The chart tells all - i know many thinks oh what a messi chart. I`m sorry for that.... but look for your own due dilligens. No trade advise! Shortby powerseller0
2 Year Treasury Hit Supply from 2007 - Bullish for StocksThis is bullish for stocks if rejects, beautiful monthly shooting star at supply from 2007. Shortby ghengiskahnspermshot1
#us10y Hi friends the us10y and dollar index is bullish in h4 We can look for reform in gold The first target of 1760 Please follow the h4 chartLongby forex_coachs2
UK gilts being soldUk gilts has been sold for the last couple of days... for moment we got news BCE will offer more gitls into markets in january,,,, for moment... critical levels for gilts.. moment sell UShortby diegotrader99880
US30Y: Bulls Will Push Here is our technical outlook for US30Y. US30Y is trading within a demand zone. Based on our view the price will rise. β€οΈ Please, support our work with like & comment! β€οΈLongby UnitedSignals114
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame): Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low. In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE π, SUBSCRIBE β , SHARE π and COMMENT β if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME πββοΈπββοΈ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! ππ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ π π π π π πby TradingShot2219
US30 Technical Analysis! Sell! Hello,Traders! US30 went down from the Horizontal resistance above Just as I predicted but is now Retesting a horizontal support From where a local rebound Is somewhat likely Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!Longby TopTradingSignals1113
Evening Update: Is the 30Y running away from usRecently I posted my analysis of the 30Y yield. That posts is here . Since then bond yields have moved higher. As I stated in my original post this could end up between 5%-6% before any meaningful pullback. Best to all, Chrisby maikisch4414
dollar and yields more upthe bullish momentum in dxy/ bearish momentum in eur slowed down significantly most recently, this probably correlates with "an end in sight" of the FEDs interest rate hikes. nevertheless there are more hikes to come and we havent seen US10y yield ranging around common interest rate targets around 5%. the countermovement in dxy, the bullish break of eu's downtrend have endured for quite some time now and its probable we see the former momentum take over again for quite some time. prepare for a bullish dollar and a bearish eur again. targets for this something around early FEB next year, till then most rate hikes should be completed or announced.Longby MrKrftUpdated 112
OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022 Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the πΊπΈ. Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history. Given the the index is currently trading below 100 , and possibly continuing to fall β what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery? Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process. Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): ππ Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: πππΌ www.tradingview.com S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: π data.oecd.org Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: π‘ data.oecd.org What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? ππΌby kylemusserco1
A DEBT CRISIS IS COMINGHello Traders, Investors and Friends, have a nice holiday! The US10Y bonds yield and the US03M bonds yield has flipped upside down since this 2022. It has only flipped upside down three times in history since the 20th century. The first time is in 2000 dot-com bobble, the second is in 2008 market crash, the third time is in 2019 unlimited QE I think thereβs a debt crisis coming, or a dollar credit crisis. The long-term and short-term interest rates upside down is one of the best indicators for predicting recessions across a range of economic variables, and it has successfully predicted all recessions in recent decades without any false. So it's worth to watch. There are four types of financial crisis: The first is currency crisis; Second, banking crisis; Third, debt crisis; Fourth, capital market crisis. Continued interest rate hikes in the US and Europe due to inflation will dampen consumer demand and economic activity. In addition to inflation in Europe, there is also the impact of the energy crisis. In the case of weak demand in enjoying countries such as Europe and the United States, it will be transmitted to crude oil countries, producing countries and raw material countries. The decline in aggregate demand has a worldwide impact. The IMF predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will be 2.7%. The World Bank predicted in June this year that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will be 3%. Now it has been revised down to 1.9%. If the two major international economic institutions in the world lower the world economic growth rate in 2023 to below 3%, it means that they judge that the global economic recession in 2023 is inevitable. The managing director of the IMF, said "It is not ruled out that a debt crisis will happen in emerging market countries. In 2023, 2/3 of developing countries and 1/3 of emerging market countries may appear to varying degrees' debt crisis." In 2021, the global debt is 272 trillion dollars. The global Debt-to-GDP ratio is extremely high. The developed economies to GDP ratio is 119.3%, and the Debt-to-GDP ratio of emerging market economies is 65.8%. For developing countries and emerging market countries, most of the fiscal spending plans hit by the COVID-19 have expired by the end of 2021. Emerging market and developing economies that adopt austerity policy in 2022-2023 will rise from more than 60% in 2021 to more than 80%, and government spending as a proportion of GDP will be lower than in 2019. Rising interest rates in developed countries have put enormous pressure on the public finances of emerging market countries and developing economies. For countries with high levels of foreign debt, the financing environment has tightened, exchange rates have depreciated, and imported inflation has risen. These factors make them face a trade-off between monetary policy and fiscal policy. The logic, you can think for yourself from the two perspectives of "bond issuance" and "interest rate", so I won't explain it in detail here. All in all, this is not so much a debt crisis as a dollar credit crisis. Because another name for credit is debt. Everything is not good to overdo it. Anyway, happy holiday and best wishes! And also, happy trading! This is my opinion, I really hope it will be useful for you. This is an article not financial advice, always do your own research. And please don't forget to support this idea with your like and comment, It means a lot to me, thanks. Be prepared and save your money. Make big profits!by YongTung101019
2yr Yield & $TNX2Yr #Yield is close to support @ 4 Look at that weekly performance! However, monthly shows RSI readings above mid 70 has signified TOPS ALSO Depending on how Dec closes $TNX also looking weak Look @ RSI What is this telling you? "Someone" buying loads of #bonds, who & why?by ROYAL_OAK_INC2
US2Y - FedFunds comes down to zeroUS2Y - FedFunds comes down to zero coincides with fed funds pausing, which is bullish for S&Pby james_jackson0
US10Y : What the Market is saying.Next week will be important. FOMC will decide on rates. Powell had said that they will slow down the rate hike. It should be less than the previous 75bps. It can be 50 or 25bps. Whatever it is, do you think it matters? Well, a week before the FOMC decision, the MARKET had made a decision as well. Participants from around the world decided to drive yields lower. Last night was PANIC all around when yield went down BELOW 3.50%. This is foreseeable. In other words, the market is telling the Fed to go FLY KITE. Yield is already BELOW the EFFR. It is now more than 25bps below and once it goes 50bps below, then it brings a new meaning to what the market think/wants. Should the Fed insist on raising rates next week, this will only INCREASE the difference between the EFFR and actual yield. I am quite sure when the Fed raise rates next week, the market will double down and drive yields LOWER!!! In the past, I learned/believe the idiom "don't fight the Fed". I begin to doubt that now. Between now and FOMC next week, we would be hearing a lot of people giving their opinion and expertise about rate hike and how FX would react. Perhaps we should just ignore it. TALK IS CHEAP. Instead, I think it is best to follow the MONEY. The BOND market is BIG. Moving it requires a LOT OF EFFORT. I would listen to these EXPERTs running the bonds. If US10Y goes lower between now and FOMC, then we get the message from the MARKET, loud and clear. As I said before, The MARKET decides - The Fed Implements - We just follow. Lets get ready for PIVOT. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense. Shortby i_am_siewUpdated 5
US10Y Critical point, break or hold on the Channel bottom!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame): Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low and it remains to be seen if the price reacts with a bounce. So far the move is much weaker than in August. In order to extend our selling we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (OCtober 21 High) Resistance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE π, SUBSCRIBE β , SHARE π and COMMENT β if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME πββοΈπββοΈ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! ππ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ π π π π π πby TradingShot7
10 year US Treasury Yield10x.....from a low 0.31% in March to 3.48% currently. With Fed speak not being understood by the market....the technicals might. The 10 year yield s are all set to usher the new year at higher levels.Longby SWFguy0
US05Y : Still standingIt all seems that the 30s, 10s and 07s had all fallen below the EFFR. Now, it is the turn of the 05s. But I think it should also FALL soon. The implication? Looks like the Fed rate hike is coming to an END. If there is a further hike of 50bps next month as ANTICIPATED, this would potentially put ALL the yield curve below the EFFR. And that might be a POLICY error that many are saying the Fed is committing. The Dollar will likely FALL. The Euro will likely rise. Of course, this rise is subject to the ongoing WAR in Ukraine. If it does not stop by the 2Q2023, we shall see what is in store for the entire EZ. The EZ budget is already stretch to the limit because of the policy of 'energy suicide'. It things continue as it is, the EU economy will completely collapse. Industry will shutdown, euro in free fall, inflation and debt will rise. Good luck. And have a nice weekend :) P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.by i_am_siewUpdated 5
Using the MMRI to assess risk in this marketWatching the MMRI and assessing market risk as Powell speaks today. If this indicator falls, the stock market will likely climb higher, and if the MMRI climbs higher, the stock market will likely fall. Will the Santa Claus rally begin soon? As speculators in this crazy market, we can only hope so.by jrj717110
Morning Update: 30Y Bond Yield This chart appears pretty well behaved. This decline in yield has come right into the .382% retracement area of wave 3 for a wave 4 bottom. If the 30Y bond continues to behave...yields are headed above 5%. To some of you reading this...that may sound like a stretch. To those who like correlations...I wonder what happens to stocks if this plays out? #whoisrightBonds_or_Stocks? Best to all, Chrisby maikisch13
Yield curve inversion, CPI, GDP and DOWHistorically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession; hence the inversion of the yield curve might be perceived as a leading indicator. Once the yield curve is inverted, it may be several months before we see GPD contracting; and it is not guaranteed that we will see a sharp drop in GDP. First pane: You can see the development of GDP and the associated development of the Dow Jones Index (log-scale). The area below you shows the US 10-year/2-year yield (bubbles indicate a yield curve inversion). As you can see, it might be some time before we see a GDP contraction after the yield curve inverts. The last area shows the core CPI that drove the Fed and expected higher dot plot medians in December. Nonetheless, recent data suggests that the core CPI may have peaked (to be confirmed).Educationby Chimbarosa0
US30Y: Bearish Continuation Hey traders, Here is our forecast on US30Y. US30Y reached a strong resistance area. Based on our outlook the market will dump to the next structure support. β€οΈ Please, support our work with like & comment! β€οΈShortby UnitedSignals336
TA STFTA van de Stock Indices. Alle op Monthly basis. Quants: MACD, Momentum, Stoch., CipherB.by Helliot_Vermogensbeheer0