ES Premarket UpdateBad numbers across the board, ES got the gap fill yesterday, now MFI is overbought. Expect it to go down until RSI hits oversold, maybe (maybe) bounce, then go for the gap fill below.
MMMicro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures
6,055.75USDD
+10.75+0.18%
As of today at 13:15 GMT
USD
No trades
MES1! trade ideas
Tariffs, and Tumult: Wall Street Waits on Super WednesdayHello everyone, it’s April 30, 2025. The TVC:DJI just closed its sixth consecutive green session, with markets clinging to hope as rumors swirl of a first tariff deal—possibly with India—though nothing is confirmed. That tiny breadcrumb of optimism was enough to boost sentiment late in yesterday’s session, even if volatility is dipping below 25% and investor enthusiasm seems to be fading in lockstep.
U.S. macro data continues to paint a picture of “not great, but not terrible.” Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS) came in below expectations but not disastrously so, prompting markets to collectively shrug and declare everything “less worse than feared.” It’s a strategy now: ignore bad data as long as it isn’t apocalyptic.
As earnings roll in, companies are split between those who pretend the tariff storm is “manageable” (hello, NASDAQ:COKE ) and those flying blind through economic fog ( NYSE:UPS , Snap, and Super Micro—who might be losing a major client named Nvidia). The overall takeaway? Visibility is garbage, and most companies are bracing rather than building.
All eyes are now on today’s so-called Super Wednesday, packed with economic data (U.S. GDP, PCE, ADP jobs, Chicago PMI) and mega-earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:META . But as usual, expectations may outpace reality. Markets often dream of clarity and wake up to more noise.
Meanwhile, China flashed its first big red light: a manufacturing PMI of 49, signaling contraction—the lowest in two years. No shock, considering their ongoing trade war with the U.S., which seems to be giving the global economy the flu.
On the political front, Trump celebrated his 100 days in office with a campaign-style detour to Detroit, throwing shade at Fed Chair Jerome Powell while declaring the economy in perfect health (despite the worst market performance since Nixon’s early days). He promised tax cuts, again, while doubling down on trade threats. Powell, of course, is just trying to survive the week.
Oil briefly dipped under $60 as markets considered the broader implications of economic warfare, gold sits at $3,311, and Bitcoin hovers around $95,000—looking resilient despite the madness.
As for corporate earnings, Starbucks missed on sales due to weak U.S. demand, Pfizer beat on EPS but saw revenue fall, and Visa continues to rake in profits as Americans keep spending like inflation isn’t real. Novartis crushed it but got no love from the market because apparently, +22% net income just isn’t sexy enough.
In short: chaos remains king. Markets seem oddly calm on the surface, but under the hood, it’s still all about tariffs, Trump tweets, and the fantasy that maybe—just maybe—some clarity will come today. Don’t hold your breath.
Enjoy the ride, and see you tomorrow for more market mayhem.
Equity market, another monthly technical close! Debriefing.1) Lessons from the monthly technical close for the medium/long term
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy between the United States and its main trading partners arrived.
In technical analysis, it's the monthly timeframe that enables us to project the underlying trend, i.e. the market's medium/long-term trend.
We will therefore be taking a decision on the monthly chart, which will be fixed for good at the close of the trading session on Wednesday April 30. Two markets will be studied: the S&P 500 index and APPLE, the world's largest market capitalization.
2) Equity markets: the (long-term) supports of the monthly time horizon are preserved
The S&P500 fell by 21% between its all-time high in February and the low point of the bearish shock at the beginning of April. We now have the technical close for the month of April, represented on the chart below by Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, complemented by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators.
In terms of price action, the essentials have been preserved: the uptrend line which joins all lows since the health crisis has been defended, and still acts as support for the market's underlying uptrend.
In terms of the ichimoku system, the Kijun-sen has also been preserved, as has the former record of 2021, the horizontal support at 4808 points. As long as the S&P 500 remains above the combination of these three supports, the long-term momentum remains bullish.
On the other hand, there are warnings of trend exhaustion in terms of market momentum, represented below by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators. Volatility should therefore remain at a relatively high level, even if the VIX peak is probably behind us.
3) APPLE, the technical message from the stock with the world's largest market capitalization
Technical analysis applied to stock market indices is the first job to be done in order to form an opinion on the underlying trend. But let's not forget that a stock market index only exists because there are stocks in it. The S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index for US finance, and in its calculation, the weight of shares from the “magnificent 7” is dominant. This is particularly true of Apple shares, the world's largest market capitalization on the international equity market. Its market capitalization exceeds 3,000 billion US dollars, second only to that of gold at 22,000 billion US dollars.
It is therefore interesting to note that APPLE's new monthly technical close highlights the preservation of a long-term chartist bullish channel.
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S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.
Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.
From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:
Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.
Summary:
The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.
Current Strategy:
Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action.
Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias!
Key levels I'm watching:
Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves)
Support zones:
First support around 5,497
Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario
While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue.
Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
April 29, 2025 - Waiting for the Crash or the Miracle?Hello everyone, it’s April 29, 2025. Yesterday’s market session was about as exciting as watching paint dry. After months of Trump-fueled chaos, investors seem almost relieved that… nothing happened. Indices barely moved: TVC:DJI up 0.28%, SP:SPX up a pathetic 0.06%, CME_MINI:NQ1! down 0.10%. In short: we’re falling from a 150-story building, and so far, so good — but we know the real pain comes when we hit the ground.
Markets are clinging to hopes that Trump’s trade war with China might get a Hollywood-style happy ending. He’s calmed down a bit. Stopped slamming Powell, flirted with diplomacy, and softened up on auto tariffs. But with an avalanche of critical economic data coming (Consumer Confidence, GDP, PCE, Jobs) and Magnificent Seven earnings, no one’s taking big bets right now. Everyone’s waiting to see if the economic parachute opens, or if we get pancaked on impact.
Meanwhile, US macro isn’t looking great. Confidence is sinking — 53% of Americans say their finances are worsening, a record since COVID. Consumer spending is stalling, companies like NASDAQ:AAL and NASDAQ:DPZ are canceling forecasts, and the real estate market is coughing. Even hardcore Trump supporters are starting to sweat. The US might still technically be growing, but psychologically, the recession has already started.
OANDA:XAUUSD is holding strong at $3,321, BLACKBULL:WTI is around $61.57, and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is cruising near $94,400. Futures this morning are flailing between -0.6% and +0.2%, dancing to the tune of whatever headline drops next.
On the political front, Trump pulled a classic backpedal on auto tariffs: no double penalties for carmakers, partial refunds on tariffs already paid, and promises of time for US production reshoring. Nice words but rebuilding car factories will take years.
As for NASDAQ:NVDA , it’s under pressure after China banned sales of its H20 chips. Huawei’s Ascend 910D chip is stepping in — good for China, but too slow and too pricey for the rest of the world. Nvidia stays king globally for now, but the tech war is heating up.
Today, eyes are on key numbers: US Consumer Confidence (expected 87.7) and JOLTS job openings (expected 7.49M). Also, a heavy lineup of earnings: NYSE:V , NASDAQ:SBUX , NASDAQ:COKE , NYSE:PFE , NYSE:SNAP , and more.
For now, we’re still in free fall, hoping there’s a giant crash pad waiting at the bottom. Hang tight — it’s going to be another wild one.
Enter short at level 5540 I will entry short at 5540 because option market and block trades told me that condition are good for a retracement.
I will enter short at this level 5540 stop loss 25 points
target 15 points
after 5/7 points i will protect my position managing my stop loss in order to gain some points and broker's fees.
April 28 Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +1228
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Signals were pretty on point today, almost all of them worked out effectively, I mainly use the signals to guide my direction and 20pt stoploss to prevent the position from blowing up.
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
— 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal, (B+ Set up, triple sell)
10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
12:35 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal)
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal
2:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5470 = Bullish, Under 5470 = Bearish
Video Recap -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw.
Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter.
Would guess from Wed-Thursday that:
Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down....
Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so...
Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect.
Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday.
Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there...
Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :)
5 min view:
Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min:
and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
S&P 500 ... ES1! ... SPY... a Gann review from 2000Basically performed another Gann Box copy-n-Stack technique and have aligned everything exactly on the daily and then switched to the 4hr
Some interesting levels occur and seems like that gap fill at 5566.25 or so or possible run to 5600 would be in the cards...but a lot of levels are smashing all together.
Make sure to expand the chart by using you mouse along the bottom of the scale, pull it left to expand or right to shrink....
Make sure to also click in the bottom right corner, hover you mouse over where price meets the date on the scale and click the "L" Log function to see if anything else comes up that different from my yellow "attention getting" marks.
Well....that's about all I got for doodles for tonight....enjoy.
weekly view to see the stacking and the duration of this run since 2000..thats quick high up eh??
1 hr view with gap highlighted:
5min close up with lower gap highlighted....so green path if good earnings week/economic data, or red path which trends to that gap fill...the choice is the investor's
$ES = More downside, the bear flag and $3914 - $4376 targetsIf you look at the chart, you can see that ever since April 7th, we've been consolidating in a bear flag.
I think what's most likely here is that we break down and hit one of the targets below. The reason being, if we look at the chart since the start of the correction, we've seen 4/5 waves so far, so it would make sense that there'd be a final leg down.
Let's see if we end up hitting one of the targets. If we do, it'll mark the bottom of the correction.
ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report
This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month.
The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025.
As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator.
However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal.
Key Levels:
• mCVAL: 5622
• Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• 2022 CVAH: 5384.75
• Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75
Our scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Range-bound price action
A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support.
Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts
Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close.
On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment.
In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
Blue Zones: Neutral zones.
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
CME_MINI:ES1!
