I'm long Volatility over the longer term, but short-term bearishI'm long Volatility over the longer term, but short-term bearish - I expect Tuesday through Thursday for the VIX and UVXY to be bearish! I got some UVXY weekly puts at $37-$38 strike before the close...Shortby candlestickninja1
SPY Right On TrackAs stated in this weekends video update, I expected us to retest the top of the red channel first, with potential to drop back inside the channel and test the bottom. The middle yellow channel is also a less likely possibility. I don't think we'll get down to the green again until AFTER we hit are WAVE 5 target and also, Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern target of 570. This should be hit sometime on or just before September of 2024. ...Then the crash.Shortby stewdamus110
Forecasting Market Behavior: Insights from VIX AnalysisThe past few days in the stock markets have been turbulent and characterized by a significant increase in volatility. The VIX reflects this volatility. This analysis is based on an ETF that tracks the VIX's price movement. The last H4 candle is particularly interesting: despite the increase in volatility, there was a distinctly negative CumDelta. This is typically a bearish signal, indicating a potential decrease in volatility (and thus potentially rising stock indices). To illustrate, I've marked two other points in the chart. It becomes apparent that each of these bearish CumDelta divergences was followed by a significant decline in volatility. Therefore, the target for the current signal is set at the 50% retracement of the last upward movement, coinciding with the high of the candle on April 11, 2024, which was followed by the upward gap. This is not a direct suggestion for a short trade on the VIX ETF, but rather serves as a forecast for the near future trajectory of the stock indices.Shortby Ochlokrat111
450s by 4/26Nice shakeout before a swift reversal that will start this week. Bullish here with target zone 450-457 by 4/26. Buying this dip as we near the end of this corrective wave.Longby JerryManders141418
UNG - Accumulation for Mid/Long TermShort summary and overview. Accumulation Phase. Ending of Correction Wave. Max allocation: 20 - 30k USD Time horizon: 6 Months up to 2 Years. Weekly accumulation trades: 1) amount: '3000@USD', type: 'FutureSwapExecution', amounts: , avg: 7.0019946101 2) amount: '2000@USD', type: 'FutureSwapExecution', amounts: , avg: 6.7269436101 We will keep updating this strategy. And will calculate a target to sell off our position again. Stay tuned. Feel free to comment or ask any question. *** Disclosure *** The following information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment or security. The trading strategies discussed here are based on historical market data and do not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy or approach will be successful, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The strategies presented here may involve risks that are not suitable for all investors. Each investor must carefully consider their own investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation before making any investment decisions.Longby breath2liveUpdated 227
$SPY Good strangle entry point targeting 530/508 by 15 AprilThis is one of the best setup to enter strangle or straddle options combo . small bullish candle with higher volume - RSI little broke the uptrend - at the trend point - Perfect setup - this move should lead to either 524 then 530 or 508 as falling target. Currently closed at 518.84 so at least we have 10-12 points to move- Friday 5th April - CALL SPY 519 AT 2.8 - PUT SPY 516 AT 1.3 so total for this combo at 4.1 while we expect move at 10$ so around 600$ as profit taken which is equal to 150% gain. If we take straddle 518 then it will cost CALL SPY 518 AT 3.4 - PUT SPY 518 AT 1.95 - So total about 5.35 and expected move at 10$ then around 465$ profit which is around 80% gain. Note the idea based on 15th April targeting close so its better to take next week expiry at 12 April. Good luck . please let me know if you tried this idea. thanks for reading! by WinnerTrader99Updated 3
SPY - My TargetsSummary latest inflation numbers for March 2024 and things are heating up a bit, obviously. We’ve got a 0.4% increase from last month and a yearly jump of 3.5%. Even the core stuff, which leaves out food and energy, bumped up by the same amount. So yeah, prices are definitely on the rise. Now, when prices go up like this, it usually means the Fed might hike up interest rates to keep things cool. This isn't great for stocks because higher rates make loans more expensive and can cut down on spending and profits. That hits high-growth companies pretty hard and can make investors nervous, especially in sectors where people are already tightening their belts. Looking at the SPY charts, it’s showing a downward trend and there’s this Low Volume Node area that’s not seeing much action. Putting all this together, I’m thinking we might see the SPY dip down to around 505 soon. For anyone invested in the market, it might be a good time to think about shuffling things around in your portfolio. Maybe lean a bit more into areas like commodities or energy which usually hold up better when prices are going up. We’re seeing some signs that point to a rougher ride for stocks, especially with the inflation situation and the Fed holding or even possibly cranking up rates. keep an eye on that 505 low volume node, level for some clues on what might come next. Longby Smart_Money_CpyderUpdated 1
SOXS LongSemiconductor Bear 3X ETF, Trendline break Long 3.30 Stop 2.7 Target 5.5, 7.0 Risk management is much more important than a good entry point. I am not a PRO trader. In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account. BuyToOpen Aug Call C4 x5 contracts Limit 0.57 x5= 2.85 Longby PlanTradePlanMMUpdated 2
XEQT LongXEQT long, riding the trend of the rally. Feels overbought but cant fight the trend at present. by tradersteve22Updated 3
Bitcoin ETF: Sideways Action to Pattern Out Excessive GainsProbably the most popular Stock Exchange Traded Bitcoin Trust at this time, AMEX:GBTC has started a consolidation that may turn into a small triangle formation. Triangles are a form of a consolidation that can work to pattern out excessive price gains without a run or correction down. This is the weekly chart where we can see that GBTC is now above its previous all-time highs. It is still affordable and poses less risk than the actual Bitcoin, which is very expensive. by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader1
LIT Long Term OutlookBulls appear to be holding on and pushing through the TREND LINE OF PAIN. Price has been holding up steady to the famous 50 yard line. Some of you might be using shorter EMA's and that's okay. Long term outlook suggests we may come across the 200 EMA line sooner than later. This trend line has been intact for almost an entire year. An upward breakout is imminent... As always, set your stop losses accordingly.by stantheinvestingmanUpdated 3
TLT Volume speaks volumes, pun intended.Don't forget that another man's trash, is another man's treasure. Volume speaks volumes, pun intended. You know what to do... by stantheinvestingmanUpdated 113
Potential China Inflection: FXI ETF: Conclusion: FXI has reached a potential inflection point. The outcome of the current technical setup is likely to define the direction over coming months, and will likely result in significant low risk trading opportunities. FXI, is the China Large Cap ETF that holds the 50 largest large cap Chinese stocks trading on the Hong Kong exchange. FXI is currently in the process of making a secondary test of its 2022 low. Either a successful test leads to a show of strength, or a failed test creates a show of weakness. Either outcome has the potential to produce a meaningful directional move offering multiple trading opportunities. This is precisely the kind of setup or juncture around which I like to build agnostic trading plans. I will have a trading and risk management plan in place to take advantage of either outcome. In 2021, the market began a vicious decline (-60%). The decline from the February 2021 high occurred on rising volume and wide price spread (suggesting strong handed selling). The move was clearly impulsive. A temporary selling climax developed (arrow). The minor climax produced a small automatic rally that quickly ran into resistance. The market then devolved into a 4 month show of weakness. This zone now represents significant resistance. The show of weakness occurred on wide price spread and relatively high volume, before potentially developing a complex selling climax (SC) at 20.87. Note that, while in this perspective the SC appears complex, it appears more traditional in the daily perspective. The automatic rally (AR) lasted 4 months and found resistance in the same zone that turned the market lower in March of 2022. After testing the resistance, the market began setting back toward the selling climax low (20.87). Note that during the most recent decline, the angle of decline has been shallower. The shallower angle and moderate volume suggests far less supply entering than on the prior decline. The solid expansion of volume around the recent low (ST?) suggests strong handed buying and that the secondary test may be complete pending a show of strength. As the market has advanced from the ST 20.87 low, volume and price spread have been declining. While supply seems limited, demand is still lacking. Odds of a setback to test 20.87 again are fairly good. I think it’s premature to conclude that the secondary test is complete. But if the market begins working its way above the downtrend that is defining the potential test (A-B), particularly if volume and price spread expand, it would likely signal a completed test. This would allow me to begin utilizing bullish setups with a high degree of confidence. Conversely a developing trend below the support would allow me to begin utilizing bearish setups. Either way, the potential for a significant move is high. I prefer secondary tests that are well separated in terms of time and that come close to fully retracing the climax structure. This structure certainly qualifies in both respects. I would prefer to see a deeper cut toward the 19.81 low, but 20.86 is close enough. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. by CMT_Association226
The SPY will move down shortly…. The weekly indicators indicate the market will drop soon. I suspect the drop will occur within 1 month. There is a triangle forming which indicated an upward or downward movement. Due to the weekly indicators showing a downward movement, I suspect the market will head lower but I will not rule out an upward move. This move will only be a brief move, before continuing upward until the US election at the end of the year. Happy trading! Shortby Princessgirl2
Wow (placeholder) New pattern detected, possible bull run. But being on the phone app, the chart looks ugly so im probably going to repost later) Longby pogicraft0
The SPY will be going down shortly …A triangle is forming indicating a move upward or downward shortly. The move can take place within 2/3 or the triangle to the tip. Due to the weekly indicators crossing last week, indicating a downward movement, I suspect a downward movement. But I am not ruling out an upward movement. The move should take place between now and within the next month. This move down will be a relatively brief move down before the market continues up until the US election at the end of the year. Happy trading! Shortby Princessgirl0
ARKK Is this the right time to buy 'Innovation'?Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the November 13 2023 bullish break-out. This puts the price in the middle of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 28 2022 bottom. As long as the price action closes the 1D candles above the 1D MA200, we expect an instant rebound. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), then our target will be 66.00 (+47.67%, which is the shortest rally it has had within the Channel Up. A closing below the 1D MA200 though should go for at least a -23.34% decline from the top, which will be our buy entry for the long-term, but our Target will be modified to 61.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot116
Let's Not Be Blind to our Blindness..!Nassim Taleb's: “My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” He also said: "The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral biases." This phrasing reflects Taleb's critique of traditional economics and his acknowledgment of Kahneman's work on human decision-making, which can be tested and applied in real-world scenarios. Taleb has discussed Daniel Kahneman's research on behavioral economics, particularly Prospect Theory, which studies how people make decisions under uncertainty. A Wisdom from Daniel Kahneman: Not only are we sometimes “blind to the obvious,” but also we are “blind to our blindness.” We all have our own unique experiences and ways of thinking. This can make it hard to see things from a different viewpoint and recognize our own blind spots. Here are some things you can do to overcome this blindness: Be open to feedback: Ask trusted friends or colleagues for their honest opinions. Seek out diverse viewpoints: Read books and articles from people with different backgrounds. Challenge your assumptions: Actively question your own beliefs and biases. By being aware of our limitations, we can start to see the world a little more clearly. Prospect theory is a behavioral economics model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It challenges the idea that people make decisions based solely on logic and maximizing expected utility (total value of possible outcomes). Instead, Prospect Theory argues that: Decisions are relative: We judge gains and losses relative to a reference point, often our current wealth or situation. Loss aversion: People feel losses more intensely than equivalent gains. A $100 loss might feel worse than a $100 gain is satisfying. Diminishing sensitivity: The impact of gains and losses diminishes as the amount increases. A $10 gain might feel more significant than a $100 gain. Here's how these ideas influence decision-making: Risk aversion for gains: When faced with choices involving gains, people tend to be risk-averse. They might prefer a guaranteed smaller gain over a risky chance of a larger gain. Risk-seeking for losses: When faced with choices involving losses, people might become risk-seeking. They might choose a gamble with a chance to avoid a loss, even if the odds are not in their favor. Prospect theory has numerous applications in understanding human behavior in various fields, including: Investment decisions: Investors might be more likely to hold onto losing stocks to avoid the pain of realizing a loss. Marketing and sales: Framing promotions around avoiding losses can be more effective than highlighting potential gains. Public policy: Policymakers can use prospect theory to understand how people respond to incentives and risks. Is it possible to be wrong and right at the same time??? My answer is Valid Yes..! look at the following chart published 70 days ago it moved in the opposite direction: Now we can see why Claude Shannon said: “We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.” Educationby MoshkelgoshaUpdated 12
Rolled (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 Short Calls to Feb 21st... for a .28 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20. The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 222
In a world of chances, Probability is the KingThe Uncertainty and Probability in Trading In a world where uncertainty reigns and the future is always unknown, trading becomes a realm where probability plays a crucial role. Throughout history, no one has been able to predict the future of financial markets with complete accuracy. This uncertainty is inseparable from trading, as we can never fully anticipate market movements. Uncertainty is necessary in trading, as it is the origin of opportunities. Each trader may have a different view of the market, creating a balance between buyers and sellers, thus generating the possibility of closing deals. Recognizing uncertainty allows us to enter a world of probabilities. We understand that no tool enables us to accurately predict the future value of an asset. Therefore, each operation carried out in the market has an expected success rate that is never 100%. Any unexpected event, such as relevant news or surprising economic data, can alter market conditions and turn an apparently perfect trade into a loss. Uncertainty, therefore, is the foundation upon which trading is built. If it were possible to predict the future with absolute certainty, risk would disappear, and any trader would take every possible trade, becoming the richest person in history. However, in the real world, we know that success in trading is based on understanding and managing uncertainty. Probability in Trading: Probability in trading can be understood as the frequency of our successes. That is, the number of successful trades relative to the total number of trades made. Any trading system, no matter how sophisticated, is subject to successes and failures. Therefore, the most we can do is assign each trader an expected percentage of successes, understanding that there is always the possibility of loss due to the constant presence of uncertainty. In previous post , I have explained how uncertainty leads to risk, thanks to the quantification of return dispersion. Now, we are in a position to intertwine uncertainty, probability, and risk and better understand the nature of trading. This is a world where success is not guaranteed, but where risks can be managed intelligently. Ultimately, accepting uncertainty allows us to make informed decisions and maximize our chances of success by managing our risk, all in such a volatile and uncertain field as trading. In summary, probability is the king of a kingdom where risk is the queen, both becoming the two fundamental pillars of any successful trading system, whether done consciously or unknowingly. King and Queen in the world of uncertainty. Recognizing their influence allows us to manage them and navigate better in this world of opportunities and risks. Long live the King!Educationby Carlos_F_4440
TQQQ Tech 3X levarged ETF LONGOn this 15 minute chart, TQQQ is in an anchored VWAP band and volume profile breakout. Near to the end of the regular market, the RSI indicator ran from deep oversold. After hours, NVDA reported a sizable earnings beat. The AI machine learning and backtesting indicator forecasts and uptrend continuation. I will get call options targeting $58 for Friday's expiration. This is a risky play, price trend could reverse and there could be no time left to recover from that reversal. The rewards for the trade going right could easily exceed 100%.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 3
Identify & understand key supply and demand areas $SPYUnderstanding supply and demand is essential. Here’s a quick intro to how we can benefit as traders by using AMEX:SPY as an example. 1. Identifying Potential Entry and Exit Points: Supply zones represent areas where selling pressure exceeds buying pressure, potentially causing price to reverse. Demand zones, on the other hand, indicate areas where buying pressure exceeds selling pressure, potentially leading to price bouncing. Traders can use these zones to identify optimal entry and exit points for their trades. 2. Risk Management: By incorporating supply and demand zones into our analysis, traders can effectively manage risk. Placing stop-loss orders just beyond key supply and demand zones can help protect capital by minimizing losses if price moves against our positions. 3. Confirmation of Trading Signals: Supply and demand zones can act as confirmation for other trading signals, such as candlestick patterns or technical indicators. When these signals align with key supply or demand zones, it increases the probability of a successful trade. 4. Understanding Market Sentiment: Monitoring supply and demand zones can provide insights into market sentiment. For example, a strong demand zone being consistently respected may indicate bullish sentiment, while repeated failures to break above a supply zone may signal bearish sentiment. Understanding institutional & hedge funds impact 1. Liquidity Impact: Institutional buyers and “whales” often execute large orders that can significantly impact liquidity in the market. Their trades can absorb available liquidity, causing rapid price movements in the direction of their trades. 2. Price Manipulation: Institutional buyers and whales have the financial resources to manipulate prices in their favor. They may strategically place large orders to create artificial supply or demand zones, inducing retail traders to buy or sell, only to reverse the market direction once their positions are filled. 3. Market Direction Influence: Institutional traders and whales often have access to extensive research, data analysis, and insider information. Their trading activities can signal market trends and influence the direction of price movements, prompting retail traders to follow suit. 4. Impact on Support and Resistance Levels: The trading activities of institutional buyers and whales can lead to the formation of significant support and resistance levels. These levels often coincide with key supply and demand zones, making them important areas for traders to monitor. Understanding the behavior of institutional buyers and whales is essential because it provides insights into market dynamics and helps anticipate potential price movements. In conclusion, mastering the concepts of supply and demand zones can significantly enhance your trading prowess, especially when applied to instruments like $SPY. These zones serve as crucial indicators of market sentiment, providing valuable insights into potential price reversals and continuations. By incorporating supply and demand analysis into your trading strategy, you can identify optimal entry and exit points, manage risk effectively, and increase the probability of successful trades. Furthermore, understanding the influence of institutional buyers and whales adds another layer of depth to your trading analysis. Their substantial trading activities often shape market dynamics, influencing price movements and the formation of key support and resistance levels. By closely monitoring their actions alongside supply and demand zones, traders can gain a clearer understanding of market trends and make more informed decisions. Remember, trading is both an art and a science, requiring continuous learning and adaptation. Happy trading! by LegitElijaah1
UVXY crosses over mean anchored VWAP LONGUVXY which leverages the VIX as a measure of volatility / greed/ fear has finally crossed over the mean anchored VWAP. This is a sign of bullish momentum and perhaps a signal that traders should hedge or consider their positions in terms of hard risk management. Those who traded this move up today made 10% or better in the trade. Those who bought call options expiring tomorrow made 10X and those with call options for next Friday made 5X overnight. Tomorrow is another day. Likely the market will rise from the correction and UXVY will fade a bit. No matter, its value for insurance and hedging is reinforced on days like the past day. I am maintaining a full position aside the call options closed at the afternoon bell which expire on Friday and had time decay to contend with. My first target is 7.75 then comes 8.05 and 8.45. I will take off 20% at each target and keep the others for insurance for a true market crash or black swan event to buffer losses while stops get hit.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 1