TLT Investment Opportunity // BuyTLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.Longby EvergreenWealthAdvisor2
IWM - buy at the key supporthi Traders IWM looks kinda bearish and we're seeing a lot of selling pressure on both on daily , weekly and monthly timeframe. Our strategy is to play the bounce from the key support level which is shown on the chart. If this key support level fails, most likely we will see more downside on IWM. Entry, target and stop loss are shown on the chart. Good luckLongby vf_investmentUpdated 117
$SPY April 19 2024AMEX:SPY April 19 2024 Strength is only above 515+- at the moment. Today 497 should break and probably AMEX:SPY will touch 4892no 94 levels being 100 average in the daily. In 15 minutes we have 100 averages at 504 and 200 averages at 50 levels. Both will be resisted at least once. For the day I will go short around 502 levels on a gap up or below 497 on a gap down. Provided the opening is around those levels and close of the bar near the low so can have the high of the bar a SL. Bias. Downside towards 492 levels. At the moment holding 492 +- 2 level is very important. Shortby RiderTrader663
Spy trade tomorrow3 scenarios as describe in the picture to reach next support around 494. If breaks 506 then downtrend over for now.Shortby anupsiwakoti223
TLT... Time to Buy?Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chartLongby jakec995116
BTC Bullish or Bearish? AMEX:BITB Using an AI Super Trend Indicator, on 1hr intervals, the output showed a moderate strength (3) buy signal. Understanding the high volatility and increased levels of trade volume of BTC ETFs as of late, I am now grappling with the idea that we can expect a bull market for the coin. Enclosed is a rough Fibonacci retracement analysis, which illustrates my theoretical prediction.Longby Vellefaux1
SPY bearish (pitchfork analysis)SPY continued up more than I expected but now there are multiple bearish pitchfork signs on the weekly chart.Shortby TradersForecast1
XBI Pushing Into ResistanceXBI is pushing back into strong resistance in the range on 96.5 - 100. Looking for a higher high with momentum divergence to setup another round of weakness.by CycleTargetsUpdated 111
Technical Analysis for SPYas of Latest Market Data.The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) exhibits signs of bearish momentum, underpinned by several technical indicators and recent price action. The ETF has breached crucial support levels, auguring a potential continuation of the downtrend. Recent Price Action: The latest candlestick pattern on the daily chart suggests indecision, characterized by a small body and shadows, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The close below the Ichimoku cloud indicates a bearish outlook, as price action moves below both the conversion line (509.94) and the base line (511.87), reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Volume and Volatility: Trading volumes show a notable increase on down days, hinting at a bearish conviction among market participants. Volatility could be on the rise, considering the broader market context and geopolitical tensions. Technical Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud: The price has closed below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bearish trend. The lagging span is also below the price and cloud, further confirming the bearish sentiment. Fibonacci Retracement: The price has descended below the 61.8% retracement level (480.34), which often acts as a critical support in bullish scenarios. This breakdown could lead to price targets at the next Fibonacci level of 50% (466.76) or even the 38.2% (453.17) in the medium term. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI hovers near the 35 mark, which is above the oversold territory but indicates significant bearish momentum. Should it breach the oversold threshold, we could anticipate a potential, albeit temporary, reversal. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line remains below the signal line and has expanded its divergence, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram's increasing bearish bars further support this outlook. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is in the oversold region, suggesting that the market may be due for a relief rally. However, without a bullish crossover, this indicator alone is not enough to confirm a reversal. On-Balance Volume (OBV): The OBV line's downward slope suggests that selling pressure is dominant, with volume on down days outpacing volume on up days. Price Targets and Speculative Outlook: Given the confluence of bearish signals, the immediate price target for SPY lies around the 50% Fibonacci level at 466.76, with a potential stretch to the 38.2% level at 453.17. Any reversals need to reclaim the cloud and base line on the Ichimoku to negate this bearish thesis. Bulls would need to induce a significant volume spike and a close above the Ichimoku cloud to shift the current sentiment. Risk Factors: Traders should be cognizant of external market influences and macroeconomic data releases that could inject volatility into the markets. Additionally, any sudden shifts in sentiment due to policy changes or geopolitical developments could result in swift price reversals.by AxiomEx2
Gaining Laser Vision: Sharpening Your Trading FocusIt's common for some traders to see things in black and white, worrying too much about the outcome of each individual trade and giving excessive importance to winning or losing on every try. This perspective is pernicious because it overlooks the inherent uncertainty in the process, which often leads to unnecessary emotional burden and is almost always detrimental to decision-making. Unlike gambling, trading is more akin to a marathon than a hundred-meter sprint. Both for the trader and the marathon runner, the key factor isn't the outcome of a single operation or the speed in covering a short distance, but rather maintaining a consistent pace that allows them to reach their goals. Just like a professional marathon runner doesn't run the entire race at the same pace, a trader will experience losses and gains at different times. However, the key is to maintain a steady and consistent progress, evaluated in blocks of operations rather than each individual transaction. In the case of the runner, it's the stopwatch that shows the pace and acceleration, while in trading, the appropriate tool for this purpose is basic statistics. Both serve the same function: to numerically describe the activity being carried out. However, while analyzing the past is important for evaluation purposes, one of the most crucial aspects is the ability to make future estimates based on partial and past readings. While these readings may not provide much context on their own, when aggregated, they become powerful. In trading, two of the most basic statistics are also among the most important: expected value (average) and standard deviation, as they are fundamental to adequately describe a large sample of operations. Additionally, along with an appropriate estimation of probability, they allow for the calculation of future scenarios through statistical inference. Precisely, the task of statistical inference involves aggregating individual data points to obtain a broader view, enabling us to look towards the future, always recognizing the uncertainty and the importance of probability. Thus, mathematics allows us to understand the irrelevance of a single data point, such as the specific outcome of a trade. Statistical inference allows us to anticipate future outcomes by aggregating past data points, allowing us to understand how irrational it is to obsess over being right in each individual operation. Like the marathon runner, what matters is the final result, so the truly important thing is to focus on the process and the discipline in applying the set of predefined rules that form the backbone of our trading system. Moreover, an approach that moves away from the need to be correct in each individual operation and focuses on maintaining process consistency has the ability to completely change the trader's relationship with their operations, avoiding unnecessary emotional burdens, which often are the starting point for disaster. A brief look at the scope of backtesting can help us better understand the power of statistical inference. It's relevant to note that while backtesting is an important and very useful tool for evaluating past performance, it completely lacks the ability to extrapolate (anticipate the future) because it only looks backward. Although it can calculate averages, standard deviation, and some other more advanced metrics, it always operates in a world where there is no uncertainty because all the data is known in the past. It also doesn't incorporate a probability estimation, making it impossible to construct future scenarios. In short, the limitation of backtesting refers to replicating past operating conditions and staying there. While statistical inference looks to the future, backtesting looks to the past. Stay tuned to read more about it! In summary, trading involves maintaining a constant pace, evaluating performance in blocks, and recognizing the importance of the process over individual results. This discipline and strategic focus allow us to look confidently towards the future, as if we had a window showing us the path ahead. Educationby Carlos_F_4440
MONITOR BONDS COMMOD'S STOCKSbonds trarting to move before commodities stocks moves after by Vitaliy_Lebedev0
SPY persists with bullish bias LONGSPY on a daily chart shows rising VWAP lines and price with the RSI indicator showing strength above 50 since November and presently in the 65 range and so not yet overbought. Volumes are near to the running mean. Price Momentum and Relative Trend indicator are more or less flat but are positive. The mass index indicator does not show a reversal pattern. I conclude that SPY is still in range for long trades including call options.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 1
SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the sun shines.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 228
$SPY April 18, 2024AMEX:SPY April 18, 2024 15 Minutes. Closed shorts yesterday at 500 in SPY. We have 494 as a daily 100 average and 21 in weekly. At the moment I do not expect a trend change to long. I expect any upside to be resisted around 506 levels being 50 average in 15 minutes. If we consider the fall from 517.28 to 499.12 we have 61.8% retracement around 510 levels. It is also 200 averages in 15 minutes. The three LL in 15 minutes had created an oscillator divergence. Hence if we have a gap up or a relief rally towards 506 levels I will short. by RiderTrader1
Do you trust financials to break out here? $XLFBelow I show you a longterm AMEX:XLF chart that has had a complete rocket higher without any consolidation in price. In my opinion XLF cannot break out here without some consolidation back down in price; and then maybe it can retest and breakout; but I don't think it can do it on the initial attempt... I may be wrong, but you can place your bets accordingly. Goodluck! Shortby StockPickingEnthusiastUpdated 2
QQQ Momentum is back -- 15% rally?It looks like momentum is back and QQQ is getting ready to break out of the trading channel. Based on the COVID rally, I think we have a chance to add another 15%. Longby Dr_RobotoUpdated 121217
Probability Blueprint: Building a Winning Trading StrategyUnderstanding Probability in Trading Probability is a fundamental tool in assessing the success of a trading system and making informed decisions. In simple terms, probability tells us how often we can expect a system to succeed relative to the total number of trades executed. Imagine you have a trading system with specific rules that are repeated over and over again. Each time we apply these rules and execute a trade, we're making an attempt. The probability of success is calculated by dividing the number of successful trades by the total number of attempts, giving us a kind of "success rate" or probability of success. It's important to understand that a good measure of probability is only achieved after a large number of individual trades. It's akin to flipping a coin many times and counting how many times it lands on heads. The more flips you make, the more accurate your estimate of the probability of the coin landing heads on the next flip becomes. Probability also helps us anticipate the future performance of our trading system. Imagine that individual observations of gains and losses are the input for this process. Statistical inference allows us to predict the future value of our account based on past results. The intuitive concept of probability is simple but has significant implications in trading because it allows us to quantify randomness, essentially enabling us to eliminate uncertainty from our business. Here it's important to differentiate between the uncertainty of the outcome of a single trade and the certainty of the average result projected into the future. Since probability represents the average likelihood of an event occurring after numerous repetitions, considering the variability of individual observations, it allows us to estimate our potential profit or loss, establishing upper and lower limits of our returns and providing insight into the future performance of our trading system. In summary, probability in trading is a powerful tool that helps us evaluate the success of our system and make informed decisions. The better we understand probability, the better equipped we will be to manage our risk and achieve our trading goals. Educationby Carlos_F_4440
$SPY overall bearish until sub 320I'm not a fundamental type of guy, I just look at what the chart give me, and as far as I see it from a Technical analyst perspective, this is nothing more but a simple ABC corrective wave from the super extended bull run we had previously. (Thus put the market in a bear market) We could either come back up to the 420 area to clear the shorts which would complete the B Wave, Giving us the opportunity for a easy short all the way to the .618 retracement level which would put is at sub 320 for the rest of the year. the other Scenario is we could reject the 400 area and come down to the 380 area and crab there before legging down again. Either way I am Micro bullish but overall bearish for the rest of this year. FOMC Tomorrow so hopefully we can start seeing some Acceleration in the charts.Shortby TrellTradesUpdated 228
XLV is shaping falling wedgeBullish context: weekly uptrend Price position: near last weekly trend low Pattern: four consecutive red days with little upthrust (progression of lows) It looks like previous weekly consolidation area is providing support, and bears are too exhausted to break through it now. This provides an opportunity for a long play. An example of possible trade is shown on the chart. It is important that today closes above 138.6, otherwise, setup is invalidated Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.Longby hermes_trismeUpdated 0
ARKK Elliot Wave ABC CorrectionARKK started its rally in November 2023 and reached $54.52 in December 2023. Since this date, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, it may be making an ABC correction. ARKK, which made the A wave by falling to $ 44.63, then rallied to $52.06 with the B corrective wave. As long as ARKK stays below $52.06, ARKK may be making wave C. At the end of this movement, it may fall between $40.35 and $42.59. Shortby selmanduatepeUpdated 0
IWM | Incoming Bull Run | LONGiShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of the small-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index (i.e., depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index) and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.Longby DivergenceSeekerUpdated 337
slvlooking at the monthly silver chart #sllv #silver as a major measured move is at play Longby awakensoul_3692